Scenario 1:
Villain open-shoves with a range of any pair and any two broadway. This is pretty easy to solve if you don't already have this memorized.
Scenario 2:
Villain raises to 3BB. It is folded to you. If you 3bet, he will shove with 100% of his range (or call if you raise all-in).
Obviously, raising with any hand you would call with in scenario #1 should be +EV, but is it the most EV play for all hands?
So, my question is, what should be your flatting range in scenario #2? This can include hands you would flip with in scenario #1 and hands you would fold.
If you are saying in #2 that V is shoving all flops, then I call with ATC.
No, I'm saying you can either choose to GII pre or play poker after the flop.
I was going to save this for later, but let's clarify. I want people to think about these two scenarios.
Scenario 2a: Villain raises to 3BB with a range of any pair and any two broadway. You flat in the BB. Villain c-bets 95% of the time and is capable of firing a second barrel.
Scenario 2b: Villain raises to 3BB with a range of any pair and any two broadway. You flat in the BB. Villain c-bets 90-95% of the time that he flops top pair or better, 50% of the time that he doesn't. He rarely fires the second barrel unless he picks up a draw or thinks the turn card is scary.
No, I'm saying you can either choose to GII pre or play poker after the flop.
I was going to save this for later, but let's clarify. I want people to think about these two scenarios.
Scenario 2a: Villain raises to 3BB with a range of any pair and any two broadway. You flat in the BB. Villain c-bets 95% of the time and is capable of firing a second barrel.
Scenario 2b: Villain raises to 3BB with a range of any pair and any two broadway. You flat in the BB. Villain c-bets 90-95% of the time that he flops top pair or better, 50% of the time that he doesn't. He rarely fires the second barrel unless he picks up a draw or thinks the turn card is scary.
In the first scenario our calling range should be {77+, KQs, ATs, AJ+}. Generally we'll want to call in the second scenario with the bottom of that range (hands that are marginally +EV getting it in pre) and some worse hands; it's going to be difficult to quantify anything here in terms of ranges.
If you're going to quantify flop c-bet % for villains, you should probably quantify turn c-bet % as well. As written, I don't see much difference in the two villains turn play.
So, my question is, what should be your flatting range in scenario #2?
I don't think there is a reason to ever flat in this spot.
Playing from OOP is generally a losing proposition, unless we believe our hand is significantly stronger than our opponent's range, OR if we think our skill edge is so great that we can play a weak hand OOP (this is almost never the case).
The real edge here is our knowledge that villain is always 4bet shoving when we 3bet. This is extremely valuable information for us to exploit. All we need to do is wait for a value hand, and extract EV.
I'm 3betting AQ+ / 88+
AQ and 88 are pretty much the weakest hands that have an edge vs his range. But tbh, we're hardly printing money in this spot when we shove AQ/88. Our EV is just a few BB, and our variance is huge.
it's also worth mentioning that if he's only open raising 22+/ TJ+, he's not raising that often, so we don't have to worry about having our BB 'stolen' too frequently.
If you're going to quantify flop c-bet % for villains, you should probably quantify turn c-bet % as well. As written, I don't see much difference in the two villains turn play.
One of my goals was to make people think about how turn bet tendencies might make them change how they play.
