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How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position

03-22-2019 , 02:39 PM
I am pretty sure I should have known I was good and could have gotten value on the river but the hand played out in a fairly odd way. I would appreciate thoughts on earlier streets too.

A tiny bit of background: this is ~2:30am into a fairly long session for all players remaining at the biggest weekday game for this casino. NLHE 3/5 blinds with a $300 max bet and a three-raise cap (local regulations). A few fishes spewed before leaving and three pros at the table have been getting wild. Two of those pros are very drunk and one is stuck huge. I am friends with the drunk pros and have been ordering rounds with them. All of us are mid 20s. Villain in the hand is a middle-aged guy I have never seen before and he stacked a few people with made hands. He also tended to be fairly passive pre-flop as I recall. He seems annoyed with the shenanigans at the table. I have no idea if any of this helps, especially because I am bad with live reads and how people generally perceive my play. Anyway, on to the hand.

8 handed
UTG +1 (sober pro who is winning) (4000 ish) opens to $20
V (2000) calls from MP
Call from HJ (not stuck drunk pro) (2500 ish)
H calls from BU with 53 (2300)
Blinds fold

I realize this isn't the best move, but we are super deep and the blinds are playing very tight. I believe my call will close the action.

Flop ($85 pot ex-rake, four handed)
QJ6
Original raiser checks
V bets $35
Fold
H raises to $105 (I might just flat with a larger flush draw but I thought I could take down the pot right away; perhaps I should be sizing up but 3x seemed about right at the time)
Original raise folds
V thinks for a bit then he raises to $300 total

This makes me pause. I am guessing that he hit his QJ for two pair (9 combos if we think he flats offsuit QJ) or has the bottom set (3 combos); I guess he could have Ax but I am not sure how may combos would flat pre-flop with action behind and 3-bet this flop (maybe AK, AT, or A6). Perhaps KT is in here too. I definitely think his range is more weighted towards made hands here.

I have to call 195 into a pot that is 490 (will be 685 if I call) so all I need is > 30% equity. Even at 8 outs (66s with a club), I have 30% equity. If a club hits then I might have a tough choice. But, I am up (not a great reason) and I have position so I make the call.

Turn ($685)
2

V seems slightly deflated (again, I don't trust my live reads of "tells") and checks
H checks (if we were playing actual NL I guess I could have put in a big bet to potentially get him off two pair; I doubt $300 here would do it)

River ($685)
K

V checks quickly again

I am pretty sure I am good here but I have no clue what I would do against a raise. I check.

He tables QJo and I show my hand. He is livid about my "suck out." I mention that he could have bet the turn (honestly not sure what I would have done) as I stack the chips. The session ended shortly thereafter so no one benefited from him steaming.

The K has to be a great card for me right? This eliminates AK and AT combos.

But I am still wondering if I could have bet the river for value and what size? Do two pairs/sets call here when both the flush and I guess a straight come in? If I am not getting called by worse and there could be better flushes then checking seems right.

I am trying to get better at value betting thin but perhaps this is not the time to do it. Again, feel free to roast the earlier streets. I appreciate the help and feedback.
How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position Quote
03-22-2019 , 03:04 PM
I actually don't think not knowing what to do if you're raised is not a reason for not value betting. The vast majority of time its going to be folded or called.

Its definitely a tough spot if you're raised, and ideally you'd have a plan before, but it may be that it depends. In a complete vaccuum it would be a fold.
How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position Quote
03-22-2019 , 03:37 PM
In a spot like this, (flop betting being as it was) it's almost always a set or two pair for villain. Playing Axc like this would just be weird and spewy, and it sounds like that's not villains style. Gotta bet.
How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position Quote
03-22-2019 , 04:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyAIC
In a spot like this, (flop betting being as it was) it's almost always a set or two pair for villain. Playing Axc like this would just be weird and spewy, and it sounds like that's not villains style. Gotta bet.
Thinking about this more, I definitely agree. How would you size it? Just bet the max ($300) as it is under 1/2 pot?
How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position Quote
03-22-2019 , 04:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bostrow
Thinking about this more, I definitely agree. How would you size it? Just bet the max ($300) as it is under 1/2 pot?
Yup, no reason not to. If he's calling 200 here hes calling 300. If he folds he folds.
How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position Quote
03-22-2019 , 04:14 PM
If max is $300, bet $300. This line is almost never a flush.
How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position Quote
03-22-2019 , 04:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WereBeer
If max is $300, bet $300. This line is almost never a flush.
What am I repping if not a flush? Two pairs (KQ, KJ)? A set? A straight that hit but isn't afraid of a flush? His QJ can't beat anything.

This is the other thought I am having, how does he call here? Am I overthinking this?

A bet of $300 gives him over 3:1 on a call. Even if I didn't have clubs or a straight, I could have 12 combos of KQ and KJ and 3 flopped sets of 6s. I would need to have five bluffs here if I would value be all of these, right? What could they be?

If I have flushes in my range then even more bluffs would be needed for him to call?

Again, maybe this is me overthinking how live players (any players) think.
How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position Quote
03-22-2019 , 04:46 PM
THis guy bets flop into 3 players and he is not the pfr; I don't think we have much FE so I like a flat on the flop

AP, the river is a very straight forward bet for value, not sure why you checked the river
How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position Quote
03-22-2019 , 08:45 PM
Max bet riv AP
How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position Quote
03-22-2019 , 09:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bostrow
What am I repping if not a flush?
Sure, what I'm saying is he very probably doesn't have a flush. So bet for value.
How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position Quote
03-22-2019 , 09:28 PM
Checking this river is atrocious. You have the best hand a huge amount of the time and this is a super fat value bet. It's not remotely thin at all.

If you're worried about him folding everything that doesn't beat you then remember to bet all your hands that aren't a flush here. You can "rep" KT for bluffs at least.
How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position Quote
03-22-2019 , 09:46 PM
Unless V has exactly ATcc or A6cc you should almost always have the best hand on the river. If you bet and get raised V can only have the nuts because you have all nut flushes in your range betting river and it’s extremely unlikely that V 3b flop with a hand that has Ac in it
How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position Quote
03-23-2019 , 02:03 AM
I hate when my bluff doesn’t work and then it gets there. Obviously just check back and tell the guy ‘you got it, just a 5 high flush’.

Spoiler:
Villain high fives you and shows you his straight flush. ‘I had the royal blocker’ he says.
How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position Quote
03-23-2019 , 02:33 AM
Look, any meaningly sized pots are fully protected in the sense that you’re playing limit poker on rivers and only two max bets are ever going in most of the time. So, just max bet whenever you nut your hand and then pay the small tax when you encounter some cooler.
How Thin is Too Thin for Value: Small Flush on the River in Position Quote

      
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