I am pretty sure I should have known I was good and could have gotten value on the river but the hand played out in a fairly odd way. I would appreciate thoughts on earlier streets too.
A tiny bit of background: this is ~2:30am into a fairly long session for all players remaining at the biggest weekday game for this casino. NLHE 3/5 blinds with a $300 max bet and a three-raise cap (local regulations). A few fishes spewed before leaving and three pros at the table have been getting wild. Two of those pros are very drunk and one is stuck huge. I am friends with the drunk pros and have been ordering rounds with them. All of us are mid 20s. Villain in the hand is a middle-aged guy I have never seen before and he stacked a few people with made hands. He also tended to be fairly passive pre-flop as I recall. He seems annoyed with the shenanigans at the table. I have no idea if any of this helps, especially because I am bad with live reads and how people generally perceive my play. Anyway, on to the hand.
8 handed
UTG +1 (sober pro who is winning) (4000 ish) opens to $20
V (2000) calls from MP
Call from HJ (not stuck drunk pro) (2500 ish)
H calls from BU with 5
3
(2300)
Blinds fold
I realize this isn't the best move, but we are super deep and the blinds are playing very tight. I believe my call will close the action.
Flop ($85 pot ex-rake, four handed)
Q
J
6
Original raiser checks
V bets $35
Fold
H raises to $105 (I might just flat with a larger flush draw but I thought I could take down the pot right away; perhaps I should be sizing up but 3x seemed about right at the time)
Original raise folds
V thinks for a bit then he raises to $300 total
This makes me pause. I am guessing that he hit his QJ for two pair (9 combos if we think he flats offsuit QJ) or has the bottom set (3 combos); I guess he could have A
x
but I am not sure how may combos would flat pre-flop with action behind and 3-bet this flop (maybe AK, AT, or A6). Perhaps K
T
is in here too. I definitely think his range is more weighted towards made hands here.
I have to call 195 into a pot that is 490 (will be 685 if I call) so all I need is > 30% equity. Even at 8 outs (66s with a club), I have 30% equity. If a club hits then I might have a tough choice. But, I am up (not a great reason) and I have position so I make the call.
Turn ($685)
2
V seems slightly deflated (again, I don't trust my live reads of "tells") and checks
H checks (if we were playing actual NL I guess I could have put in a big bet to potentially get him off two pair; I doubt $300 here would do it)
River ($685)
K
V checks quickly again
I am pretty sure I am good here but I have no clue what I would do against a raise. I check.
He tables QJo and I show my hand. He is livid about my "suck out." I mention that he could have bet the turn (honestly not sure what I would have done) as I stack the chips. The session ended shortly thereafter so no one benefited from him steaming.
The K
has to be a great card for me right? This eliminates AK and AT combos.
But I am still wondering if I could have bet the river for value and what size? Do two pairs/sets call here when both the flush and I guess a straight come in? If I am not getting called by worse and there could be better flushes then checking seems right.
I am trying to get better at value betting thin but perhaps this is not the time to do it. Again, feel free to roast the earlier streets. I appreciate the help and feedback.