1/2 NL Effective $250, H covers.

Hero: MAWG. Stack $600ish. Just flopped quads with TT vs. AA and won a big pot. Playing TAGish.

V: MAWG $250ish. Just rebought. Is in shock from a few bad beats stacked twice with $100 buyins. Now rebought recently for max $300. He's not tilting though, if anything he is more cautious.

Hero dealt AA hijack. 1 limp. Terribad player makes it $6 which can mean anything. 1 call. Hero makes it $21. V button 4-bets to $50 folds to hero.

I range him pretty much exclusively KK and possibly last AA combo. I feel like given his mental state a large 5-bet may fold and since I know his range is narrow I know it will be trivial to let him stack off himself on most runouts by the turn.

Flop: $105ish. Stack sizes $150
Flop K-x-x rainbow.

Do we ever trust such a narrow read here that V has KK and only KK as the vast majority of his range even with an SPR of less than 2? If we range him to only AA/KK we don't have the price to stack off (18% vs 30% needed).

I think your read that he might fold preflop with KK is dubious. Someone who is stuck a couple buyins is basically never folding KK preflop. That said, flatting is not a bad play in general here.

On the flop, I think you have to allow him the possibility of having AK. There are 6 combos of AK possible and only 3 possibilities of KK I don't think you can take away the chance of AK enough to make this a fold given the size of the pot vs the stacks remaining.

Does villain range contain hands that are not KK? (Probably yes)

If u think his range is all KK then gii pre.

If u think his range is not exclusively KK then gii post.




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I don’t like the flat pre. I did this once with AA after V l/rr my BB open ($20–>$100). I put him in exactly KK too. Flop was a K and we checked it down. He had QQ. Imagine how much more money I could have made if I’d 4! pre!

Here I’d 5! click it back to $100-$115 and stack off on all flops (or just ship it pre if you think he is super strong). He’ll have a PSB left behind. If he happened to outflop us with KK so be it. You can’t get around runbad.

Problematic to range a player on exactly one hand. It´s great for you if it works, but you are walking on a dubious road there.

I do not trust your read at all, given he has been stacked more than 1x and buying in for 50bb. You must be ready to commit all chips here.

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Flop 3 bet is too small. Id be raising to $26-$30 given the call.

As played, the preflop flat is horrendous. We have #1 against a player who should clearly be on tilt and is now clicking back a min 4 bet. I'd either be jamming with the expectation if him calling off 88+ AQss+ which he is clearly representing a much a tighter range.

Flop 3 is not on top of a normal raise. It's over a $6 raise that a goofnut player makes randomly. If I make it $30 under normal circumstances I'll usually get zero callers. At this table normalized raises on straddles (i.e. 20-25) were not getting callers.

As for the V, he may have called a pre jam but as I stated his "tilt" state was to play scared money, not try and win every pot. He would have been less likely to call than before his tilt state.

Results--H bets $75, V flats. His range is now KK/AA/AK. My gut was saying he has KK pretty much 100% now but my reasoning was like all of you posting here, it's silly to range him on KK. I shoved blank turn and he called with KK.

Regardless of your read, I think I click it back pre to like $115-$125 so that it will be mega easy to get stacks in. I can count the # of players in my 1/2-2/5 pool who have 4! pre and then folded with less than 200 blinds on 1 finger (that would be me). It just doesn't happen.

AP OTF, you are never folding so just play it in a way that you get to V to commit his stack. If he has KK, so be it.

3betting a 6$ open in a live 1-2 game =/= 3betting a "standard" open of like 12-15$. Even most of the droolers see this 6$ open as weak and understand you should be attacking it. Therefore I think even in this setting assigning him a 4b range of KK+ is probably just too narrow.

more pre and shove over his 4b

As you stated in this hand description "Hero dealt AA hijack. 1 limp. Terribad player makes it $6 which can mean anything. 1 call. Hero makes it $21."

There isn't just $6 in this pot; there is $2 + $6 + $6 +blinds. As I stated: Given the call, I would raise to $26-$30. Raise to a proper size and and reraise to a size to get it in against a player who is on tilt and showing aggression. The fact that you lost the hand is irrelevant. It should have gotten in preflop, and that is where your mistake was.

for only that much more no, i don't trust my read that much.

all in pre. you stand a better chance to get value from QQ and AK.

as played folding this flop would be pretty ludicrous. happy to get the money in.

I often read villains for pretty much exactly the most catastrophic hand they can possibly have. I'm often correct - should I trust these MUBSy, pessimistic "reads"?

No.

Because I'm a naturally pessimistic and cynical person I always think the worst is going to happen. Like a stopped clock that's right twice a day - I'm sometimes correct in my doom-mongering. Problem is I don't remember the many more frequent occasions when I was pleasantly surprised by them not having me beat.

You wouldn't post this thread if he'd shown AK and we wouldn't be discussing it and you likely would go on to totally forget it (if you've got a memory like mine at any rate).

MUBS really just means poor ranging.

This is very important to consider when evaluating the entirety of 2+2 posts. If you used them as an indication of the playing style of 1/2 players you'd get about as good of an idea of how people play as you got about tournament poker from watching the World Poker Tour in 2008.