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How to play an OverPair on coordinated board How to play an OverPair on coordinated board
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07-20-2021 , 09:56 PM
#1
CoranMoran's Avatar
CoranMoran
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journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 249
$1-$2 NL Cash Game

Players:
Both villains are loose-calling fish.

Hero is in EP with 9 9 and raises to $10
MP calls ($300 behind) - CO fish calls ($200) - SB fish calls ($250)
4 players
Pot = $42

Flop: 6 5 3
SB checks - Hero bets $25 - MP folds - CO calls ($175) - SB calls ($225)
3 players
Pot = $117

Turn 4
SB checks - Hero ??

That's a lot of connected cards on the board.
But should we assume one of them has us beat?
What should we do?
Please advise.

--CM
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07-20-2021 , 10:21 PM
#2
SUYAPA's Avatar
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adept
Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 769
Its a board we could also check as the preflop aggressor otf to x/c or x/r. Also depends on villains sizing. Being in ep its a board that hits our opponents better. We have a very vulnerable overpair with no So I dont mind pot controlling.

AP check to probably x/f but depends on their playstyle
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07-20-2021 , 10:31 PM
#3
Mat the Gambler's Avatar
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The 4 looks like a scary card, but is it really? Villains shouldn't have any 2's and not many 7's in their range. They called pre-flop, and then called a gutshot straight draw with a flush draw on the board? I think you're still ahead a large percentage of the time. The biggest threats are 46, 45 and 34. I would check-call the turn, and see what happens on the river, but probably check-calling most rivers.
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07-21-2021 , 01:20 AM
#4
AKQJ10
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Carpal \'Tunnel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mat the Gambler
The 4 looks like a scary card, but is it really? Villains shouldn't have any 2's and not many 7's in their range. They called pre-flop, and then called a gutshot straight draw with a flush draw on the board? I think you're still ahead a large percentage of the time. The biggest threats are 46, 45 and 34. I would check-call the turn, and see what happens on the river, but probably check-calling most rivers.
I agree with most of this, but:

1. The flush draw isn't having much impact on their propensity to chase a gutshot because they just feel like chasing that gutshot. (They're accidentally almost correct to ignore it -- a flush draw is unlikely in the 2 other hands, although a more sophisticated opponent thinks about floating with the gutshot to represent the flush.)

2. The probability of calling two bets from a "loose fish" and picking off a bluff is less than zero. Check/call once, sure, because the turn bluff looks so tempting (or they might even bet A6 or 88), but if they bet again, fold.
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07-21-2021 , 03:37 PM
#5
drowski
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Checking flop or betting a large size would be standard here. I like your size in theory vs good opponents but not vs 1/2 players.

Turn I'm shutting it down. X/f to anything larger than a $10 bet. I'm not familiar with these stakes tho
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07-21-2021 , 04:06 PM
#6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10
I agree with most of this, but:

1. The flush draw isn't having much impact on their propensity to chase a gutshot because they just feel like chasing that gutshot. (They're accidentally almost correct to ignore it -- a flush draw is unlikely in the 2 other hands, although a more sophisticated opponent thinks about floating with the gutshot to represent the flush.)
I suppose I was thinking more about how I play gutshots, not how a typical villain plays them. Because your direct odds are so low, you have to be very sure that you can get paid off if you hit. It's not that I'm afraid of someone else having a flush, but of the flush killing the action. How am I going to get called by worse when there's three to a flush and four to a straight on the board?

Quote:
2. The probability of calling two bets from a "loose fish" and picking off a bluff is less than zero. Check/call once, sure, because the turn bluff looks so tempting (or they might even bet A6 or 88), but if they bet again, fold.
I guess this is read/villain dependent. I play against players who seem to only bluff scary boards, and bluff scary boards with high frequency. I feel like I have to bluffcatch to keep them honest. In other games it might be different.
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07-21-2021 , 04:26 PM
#7
Amanaplan
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CK turn and see how it all shakes out.
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07-21-2021 , 07:25 PM
#8
nutsornot
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journeyman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mat the Gambler
The 4 looks like a scary card, but is it really? Villains shouldn't have any 2's and not many 7's in their range. They called pre-flop, and then called a gutshot straight draw with a flush draw on the board? I think you're still ahead a large percentage of the time. The biggest threats are 46, 45 and 34. I would check-call the turn, and see what happens on the river, but probably check-calling most rivers.
If they're loose calling fish theres 12 combos of 67 and 16 combos of 78 (which was an open ender on the flop. You could give them a couple combos of 97 suited as well for a flopped double gutter. You'll find fish at the 1/2 table who have all 32 combos of A2 and A7 as well. And of course they call with a gut shot, its what they do. They didn't drive all the way to the casino to fold.
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07-21-2021 , 08:07 PM
#9
AKQJ10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsornot
If they're loose calling fish theres 12 combos of 67 and 16 combos of 78 (which was an open ender on the flop. You could give them a couple combos of 97 suited as well for a flopped double gutter. You'll find fish at the 1/2 table who have all 32 combos of A2 and A7 as well. And of course they call with a gut shot, its what they do. They didn't drive all the way to the casino to fold.
All of that is true, but the numerator (number of combos of 7x they may have) isn't meaningful without the denominator. Loose players may also call one bet with JT, Q9, K5, and certainly 88 and A6. They're loose!

A lot of hands with a 7 are in their range, but that doesn't necessarily mean a lot of their range is 7s.
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07-21-2021 , 09:27 PM
#10
nutsornot
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10
All of that is true, but the numerator (number of combos of 7x they may have) isn't meaningful without the denominator. Loose players may also call one bet with JT, Q9, K5, and certainly 88 and A6. They're loose!

A lot of hands with a 7 are in their range, but that doesn't necessarily mean a lot of their range is 7s.
Agree 100%. What I posted was an incomplete thought. Just wanted to point out theres plenty of other hands possible.
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