$1-$2 NL Cash Game

Players:
I don't know Villain. He is new to the table, but he strikes me as inexperienced.

MP limps
Hero in the CO with 8 7 and raises to $8
Button calls - BB calls - MP calls
4 players
Pot = $33

Flop: T 9 2
BB checks - Hero bets $17 - Button folds - BB checkraises to $75 ($240 behind) - Btn folds - Hero pushes for $315 ??

Over aggressive?
Standard?

Please advise.

--CM

Pre is fine, assuming that 4x isn't a sizing tell in your game.

Flop I bet bigger first time around on a board this wet. At least 2/3 pot.

AP, I think I like the shove, given how little we know about V. It's really hard to model how he plays his range if we just flat, and whether we'll be able to get his stack if we hit, etc. If we shove, our FE isn't great given the action, but it still exists. Almost no one, especially an inexperienced player, has much of a check-raise/fold range OTF. He does have some other combo draws that could overflush you (or even just win with a pair ) like AsQs, As9s, etc., though and he might fold those to the shove.

I gave him basically all combos of 9s with a spade face card or two overs in spades, as well as all the sets, T9, and a few bits of cheese that include the NFD blocker and a pair (As9d for example), and you're 40.5% against his range. Your shove represents 46% of the final pot, so we need him to fold sometimes for it to be +EV. If he folds everything except the 2p and sets, we're still only 43%, but given how often he folds and we make a tidy $125, that's fine. TBH, though, he probably calls with As9s and QsJs which drops our equity down to 41.4%. Still, we only need about $35 worth of FE to make up our disadvantage, and he should have enough folds in his range to get us that.

Since he x/r and you have no showdown value yet, you can consider just calling and shove after you get there to save $ for when you don't.

Especially since you have position.

I think it is too aggressive.

Our hand has a good amount of RIO and likely no fold equity. 4X pre over an open limp will put better draws in multi-way ranges, besides the 2-pr+ hands.

Theoretically, this flop hits opponent ranges harder than ours, so I like a X/C planning to play a smaller pot.

We're at least 160 bb deep here (other V's stack sizes aren't given). That needs to inform our cbetting range. 100 bb deep, cbetting all overpairs and combo draws usually can't be that wrong in a 1/2 game, since we'll happily GII against most opponents. In this spot though, we should be checking a lot barring more specific reads. This flop hits others' ranges harder than ours, and we don't have much FE 4-way. If we're going to add combo draws to our checking range, 87ss is about the first one to do it with, since it's largely non-nutted draws that will be RIO city in a huge pot.

If we do cbet this flop, it needs to be larger. We want hands like broadway gutters to fold. Wet flops -> larger cbets.

Getting it in here is not going to be good. I'd estimate your opponent's range as two pair, a set, or a better draw like 9sxs or QsJs, KsQs. So you're going to be a fairly big underdog against that.

Facing that flop raise is so gross, but you're getting the odds to see one more card so I just do that.

I like the idea of checking the flop vs. so many people and almost no fold equity.

These spots usually present very juicy semi-bluffing opportunities, however i don't really see much FE in this spot bc when you break down the V's range... it looks like FD's that crush you, sets, and some 9T as well.

I don't think he's ever x/r'ing any one pair hands so this seems like a call on the flop

X/C?

if I check in this spot and somebody bets im raising all day , we have too much equity to play hand passively OOP, cbet or x/r

I'm on board with a X/R if Btn bets flop and folds back to Hero.

Cool. Cool Cool Cool

Don't like the shove. The BB is the checkraiser, it's unlikely that BB has AA-JJ. So his checkrasing range is usually 2 pair/set/nutflush draw. You probably can get the nut flush draw to fold, but two pair/sets are calling. You're monster draw is negated a bit by the 33% chance that the board pairs. So you're equity is only about 40% against a set.

That said, you can't fold to the checkraise. I would just call the $58 and see the turn. If you hit, shove.

Much prefer to checkraise myself. Makes my hand look much stronger.

While I agree that I'd much rather be the one c/r-ing, the NFD folding is a hugely good result for us, partially do to how much FE we get, and partially do to the equity it has against us.

My standard is 4 bb + 1 * number of limpers + 1 more when OOP. So I’d make it a flat $10 here. But some people raise smaller. I prefer getting more value when holding good cards against people who’ve already shown interest in the pot.

I’m fine putting it in here. Even against a terrible range you’ll have like 41%, and you never know when he has like JT and is “seeing where he’s at” and won’t call it off.


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Would you raise to $8 pre if you had QQ or AK instead? It's important that you don't give away sizing tells.

Assuming you didn't give away sizing tells, you played it fine. Sometimes you'll stack off against an overpair and you'll be a slight favourite, other times you'll stack off against a set and you'll be an underdog. But you'll never be drawing dead, so stacking off on the flop is fine.

nut flush draw right? these hands will have NFD+over card at the minimum so these hands will be calling a x/r otf pretty often but we can always continue to apply pressure if we end up with no showdown value

Yeah, what I was saying is that I agree that I'd rather be the one check-raising, but AP if he folds the NFD to our three-bet shove, that is great result for us.

Let's say for the sake of argument (and easy modeling) that his range is half NFD, 1/4 sets, and 1/4 2-pair. If he always calls, we have 41.684% equity (plus or minus, depending on which NFDs, as I'm not taking the time to plug in every combo) and our shove represents 46% of the pot. Our EV is -$22.55.

But if he always folds the NFD, our equity improves to 44% and half the time we win the current pot of $125 unopposed. That is a HUGE EV boost.
Half the time we win $125 (EV $62.50)
22% of the time we win $368 (EV $81)
28% of the time we lose $315 (EV -$88.20)
Overall EV is +$55.30, a positive swing of $77.85. The FE of the NFD folding is HUGE for us, not only because of our EV gain, but because of the massive positive effect of him folding.

Obviously, this is a simplified analysis to make the point, but as I showed above, we only need $35 of FE for this to be a break-even shove. That means he only needs to fold 28% of the time.

oh yes of course, the AP part was missing before lol i see what you're saying now.

the only thing is, is he V raising the flop with all his NFD's? Bc if he is only raising with the really strong ones , (FD+2 overs) then there might not be any NFD's to fold out

and i know AJs, AQs, and AKs are slam dunk 3b's pre, but that doesn't mean these players will have these hands in their 3b range.

i think if V is x/r'ing a FD here its probably going to be one of the above OR A9ss for pair+FD; mainly bc players will tend to call with the weaker AXss combos

of course i know nothing about the V or his frequencies, passive or aggressive , but in general i see a lot x/c'ing with the hands that you hope to fold out with a 3bet on the flop