$1/2NL effective stacks of $200 for all players
MP fish limps $2
Hero on Button Raise to $8 w/ A
3
SB folds
BB calls $8
fish folds
$20 pot Heads Up to the Flop J
6
T
BB checks; Hero bets $11; BB calls
$40 pot Turn 6
BB checks; Hero checks
$40 pot River 6
BB checks...
Now as to why I played the hand the way I did. I raised on the button to isolate the sole fish limper who has proven to give up easily post flop. Also, both blinds are weak-tight players with one having the nickname "the rock". I only made it $8 as that would be enough to isolate and not build a big pot with a mediocre starting hand at best.
I got isolation; however surprisingly on a weak-tight Blind rather than the fish that folded out. Irregardless, it is about the same spot I wanted to be in, if not better as I know the weak-tight's range a bit better.
I C bet on the flop that I might normally check against a more aggressive player, but this player could lay down quickly. However, I get a call.
Now here is where I get good info. The 2nd six hits the board and weak-tight player gives me the "i don't like the look of that card" face and the hesitation before checking. This tells me with much more certainty that he is on a draw and really wants the free card. I'd say 80%+. However, not knowing what draw he is on (flush plus various straight combos) along with the possibility that he does have a monster and was throwing a fake tell, I oblige and give him the free card planning a river bet if a non-scare card hits. (Also don't forget these types of players will check-call down big hands too). So better to keep the pot smaller if I am making a mistake.
The 3rd six on the river obviously changes the dynamics of the hand. Mr. Weak-tight checks it to me again. At this point I am over 90% sure he was on a draw that missed and I am ahead with my lone ace. However, I am in the classic situation where many players make a mistake. If I bet the river, I am only getting called by better hands (and therefore losing more money) and I am making all worse hands than mine fold (not gaining any more money). There is a very small exception range of AKcc and AQcc that MIGHT fold here. I decide to check it down and show my ace rag which takes it down.
I had been playing a tight game image up until that point, only showing hands the hands when I had it, and able to pull off some good bluffs. Here is my question I pose to you - would it be +EV in situations like this to throw a value river bet getting the opponent to fold to maintain your image? Or would you rather just adjust your game going forward and not risk the extra bet?