What should we size this river? 1/2, $300 effective, 9 handed.

This is hero's first time playing with villain. Villain has been doing some epic stationing. He somehow caught OMC bluffing (?!) on flop and river with 99, on a KQ375 board. Hero got two streets of value vs villain with 97 on a 9532K board, villain called flop and turn with AJ. Villain also gave hero turn and river value on an A9872 board when hero had JJ, but villain didn't show. Villain also floated flop and turn vs hero on J723 board with QT.

OTTH

Hero opens A♠️ 2♠️ LJ $10, and only villain OTB calls.

Flop($21): 9♣️ 9♥️ 6♣️. I value c bet $10 (would go larger vs virtually any other opponent) and villain calls.

Turn ($41): A♦️. Hero bets $30, villain calls.

River ($101): 5♠️. How much should we bet?

Not convinced betting > C/C, but if you do, perhaps $40ish.

Getting value from 88/77/86/76, 65 has been counterfeited; behind better AX combos, 16 combos of 87, and maybe some slow-played 9X.

If V does not bluff I bet around $50, but I'm expecting to get a lot of folds from missed clubs/T8/T7.

The other risk on this particular river is that V got there with 87. We're best a lot but even when we're best you didn't say this V could call down with less than a pair here, so I mean, you're targeting 6x and pocket pairs, I'd probably just check.

Bet $40 to $50.

I do agree that if V will bet worse, it might be a check/call, but he's been so station-y I'd hate to let him check a pair behind that he'd otherwise call with.

Definitely a bet/fold here, though.

I am interested in the flop bet. Doesn't villian have range advantage in this spot? Can't we find better spots to "value bet". Is villian likely to bet if you check to him and if he does are you calling because, again, you believe you are ahead? Is extracting thin value from a player of villians caliber worth it here? I understand villian continues with a lot of hands that you beat.

id fold preflop. as played id c/f the flop vs a station.

Even though villain seems like a big time station, you also must weigh this against his bluffing frequency.

V will have a ton of flush draws and many gut shots. If V is bluffing with even half of these, I would check here. He is likely to bet more as a bluff than he will call with pocket pairs and 6x.

However, if V is such a station that he will call with any pair or even K-high and he is bluffing at a standard rate, then this becomes a value bet.

It seems like this latter situation may be the case given your description. If it is, then I'd bet about 1/3 pot.

Fold pre. I think betting river is the right play here about 40% pot.

Is opening A2s from LJ really that loose? It's the first position I'm opening A2s, unless I'm at a super tight table. I thought this was a pretty standard open...

Obviously if we bet, it's bet-fold, but super stations usually just play super passive overall and aren't betting missed draws, but will call with a lot worse.

You aren't way out of line with the A2s imo I just fold it having to get through that many people.

I have A2s as an open from the LJ but there are some tough lineups where it might be a mixed frequency open or just a fold once you factor in rake. I like $60 or so on the river, an amount where we can appear to have some bluffs, but not so much so as to discourage calls from like 6x.

Would be curious to hear some more opinions on the flop. I think it’s pretty close. My default is probably to bet but I don’t feel strongly one way or the other. I think I would rather check/fold than check/call. We do have some SDV but pretty poor playability.

Depends on how you define range advantage. Hero definitely has more raw equity. I would also guess hero also has a non-trivial EV edge but I’m not sure.

X flop. This might be one of the worst combos of hands to bet with.

We have no BDFD + We have a deuce in our hand.

Monker has preflop as an open at around 50% Frequency. We should be tighter against stations so probably fold it.

Ok, I agree now that flop is really bad, even vs a super station.

Anyways, not being results oriented, I feel like overall we just have to bet here vs epic stations, but in game I checked and he rolled over KK...I mean if I took his line in a parallel universe I'd probably expect to be good pretty frequently.