how many people are calling this? - Page 3 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

I don't know what you are hoping to accomplished in this thread.

People broke down equity and pot odds as evidence to call, and your argument in response is that you have his soul read.

Bottom line, and you will probably refuse to accept it, is that you are here to argue your soul read.

lol gtfo, i never once suggested soul reading, simply stated the bet sizing, table dynamic and what i have seen. i have concluded that my range maybe a little too narrow but that is due to other's constructive analysis and feedback. what i am trying to accomplish is to learn more about what other's thought process are when facing the same situation and hopefully learn from it. the real question should be what are you trying to accomplish by making worthless feedback and trolling people who are genuinely trying to learn and get better.

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11-13-2014 , 07:01 PM

#52

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Yo buddy, you want to know how to do this properly?

Build a baseline using range, calculate equity, then use that soul read of yours to add or remove hands.

If you cannot remove enough hands to lower your equity to justify a fold, then this is a simple call.

If you think bickering about what someone might do with AcAx or KK and your only supporting evidence is that you were at the table for 3 hours, then ya...have fun with that and see where that takes ya.

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11-13-2014 , 07:14 PM

#53

Dominic

Tripod

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 74,262

Quote:

Originally Posted by NuklearWinter

OP, I fail to see how you have developed a "solid read" on this guys betting patterns in 3 hours. 3 hours at a table is about 60-90 hands of hold em. You get dealt AA 1 in 220 hands. So in less than 90 hands you have seen V's opening size for the following hands: AA, KK, QQ/JJ/TT/99/88, AK, AQs, etc. How many hands has V opened in 3 hours? How many have you seen at showdown?

Unless you left out some info, I don't buy this "solid read" that V only has AA or KK.

Nonetheless, there are more combos of AA on this flop than KK so as played I would get it in. With that raise size preflop V is probably married to his big pair.

However I think AcKx should be included here as well as even AQs. Lastly I would expect a guy with KK to actually not fastplay this flop when raised. Thus I would get it in and expect to see AA, AcKx more often than KK.

This. Hell, I wouldn't put it past a "typical 1/2 player" doing this with QcQx or JcJx. Ranging him to only AcAx or KcKx is crazy after only 3 hours.

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11-13-2014 , 11:29 PM

#54

ChicagoLex

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 245

I think it's a trivial call at this point. This is exactly what we need to happen to justify the set mine pre; we flop a set and V is willing to stack off. Given that this is the first time he opens to 15bb, I think his range is incredibly heavily weighted towards AA. OMC usually doesn't play AK this way pre and I'm less likely to put him on KK.

At this point his entire thought process is, "I had the nuts pre flop so I should win!" He may have a redraw to the nut flush and some fold equity making this a not terrible play on his part, but he isn't thinking about it that way.

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11-14-2014 , 09:05 AM

#55

roberbro23

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 154

Alright already, what did he have?

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11-14-2014 , 11:41 AM

#56

Lapidator

LLSNL Frequent Flyer

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 13,762

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

Lulz... +tree-fiddy

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11-14-2014 , 01:06 PM

#57

wj94

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 7,945

Quote:

Originally Posted by roberbro23

Alright already, what did he have?

KK obviously

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11-14-2014 , 01:37 PM

#58

checkoslovakia

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 126

BBV is that way -->

Next.

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11-14-2014 , 02:02 PM

#59

NuklearWinter

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 2,735

Quote:

Originally Posted by wj94

KK obviously

actually I'd bet OP folded and V had a confused look on his face, shrugged, took the pot and didn't show.

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11-14-2014 , 02:21 PM

#60

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

This is a common issue for most without strong grasp of ranging opponents and pot odds.

Another common theme is that most players think being good means to win every hand, and if you lose a hand, it is result of a mistake.

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11-14-2014 , 02:34 PM

#61

Tim Brice

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 2,961

Can you teach me how to develop very specific reads about a tight opponent's UTG raising range in around three hours of play?

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11-14-2014 , 02:39 PM

#62

AintNoLimit

Coach live/online NLHE

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 6,399

I tally results so have they been given here?

Note: Yep, we all know that we do NOT play for short term results. I like to tally them anyway, since "long term" results are absolutely what I am after.

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11-14-2014 , 03:43 PM

#63

Mr_Doomed

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 1,629

Quote:

Originally Posted by roberbro23

Alright already, what did he have?

Obviously he had KK other wise this thread wouldn't exist.

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11-14-2014 , 03:44 PM

#64

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by AintNoLimit

So why tally them?

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11-14-2014 , 03:57 PM

#65

Lapidator

LLSNL Frequent Flyer

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 13,762

This spot we definitely go broke.

But being 230bb+ deep, we should be able to get away from bottom or middle set, generally speaking.

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11-14-2014 , 04:01 PM

#66

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,761

This is simple: If I KNEW he had KK, I would fold. If I had any doubt, I would call. Sometimes (and it's rare) you do KNOW when you are beat, period. If I folded those times, I'd have a lot more winnings!

OP, if you were 100% sure he had KK, just fold and move on. There is nothing to discuss.

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11-14-2014 , 04:17 PM

#67

AintNoLimit

Coach live/online NLHE

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 6,399

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

So why tally them?

because results over the long run (which i keep) DO in fact count tremendously.

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11-14-2014 , 04:20 PM

#68

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

How do individual results play out in long run?

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11-14-2014 , 04:23 PM

#69

Lapidator

LLSNL Frequent Flyer

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 13,762

Seriously, both of you, get a room.

1) Self-selection means these results (i.e. hands posted here in strat threads) are worthless.

2) Law of Large Numbers means ANL theoretically could amass a big enough database to make the statistics valuable (if it were not for #1).

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11-14-2014 , 05:20 PM

#70

River G

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 453

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

How do individual results play out in long run?

Over the long run, we can have mathematical help to many "marginal" questions. For example, if in a certain spot, we have a "feel", but are truly uncertain, we can think of the tally we have for this similar spot, and use it to help with our decision.

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11-14-2014 , 05:28 PM

#71

AintNoLimit

Coach live/online NLHE

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 6,399

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lapidator

This (and must be unbiased). The hands posted in a forum are usually losing hands thus bias "usually" occurs, however does not have to in your own sample. You have to be your own judge of how unbiased you are when doing hand analysis.

Analyzing large amounts of hands where it is not known whether it was won or loss is the best sample obviously.