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how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots?

11-06-2012 , 02:49 AM
There are some players at my local casino that are nitty, slight winners. Some of them know how to fold a big hand that's beat, and some don't. For the ones that know how to fold, I was wondering if I can take advantage of them by making some big bluffs. They view me as also a tight, winning player.

For example: Game is 1/2/2 with 5 bring in. NSWTCF(nitty slight winner that can fold) brings it in EP for 5. Couple of limpers behind. I raise to 35 in LP with AKo. NSWTCF calls, others fold. Flop is Q73r. He checks, I bet 2/3 pot. Turn is 2. He checks. I almost never bet again because I know he has a hand like KQ or QJ and is going to call the turn. I will have to fire 3 barrels to win the pot. So I never do. Suppose I fire 3/4 pot on the turn, and 3/4 pot on the river. In your experience, how often does this type of reg fold his KQ here?

Another example: Guy raises in EP. One caller, you call in MP with Js9s. NSWTCF calls in CO. A blind calls. 5 to the flop, Jh Ts 7h. Checks to NSWTCF who bets 3/4 pot. Folds to you, and you call. Turn is Jc. Check, check. River is 4h. You check, and he bets 80% pot. You check-raise for a PSB. How often does he fold here?
I know the second example isn't ideal but I was having trouble making up a hand where your opponent's range is capped and you bluff raise the river.

Do you try to exploit the nitty regs that can fold by moving them off their hands? What results have you gotten? Do they adjust? I'm only talking about the spots where they are unlikely to have the nuts, and their range is at least somewhat capped.
how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? Quote
11-06-2012 , 03:59 AM
i would wait until 5/10 to run triple barrels. there is no need to spew off tons of money at that level trying to pry a guy off a high top pair since not many cards will be scary to him. people don't really valuebet the river thinly so your 3rd bullet won't get that much credit.

second hand: he's never calling the river c/r with worse. just bet/bet/bet. nits don't valuebet thin and don't bluff so you need to get the money in yourself.
how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? Quote
11-06-2012 , 05:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The4thFilm
i would wait until 5/10 to run triple barrels. there is no need to spew off tons of money at that level trying to pry a guy off a high top pair since not many cards will be scary to him. people don't really valuebet the river thinly so your 3rd bullet won't get that much credit.
Very solid advice. Especially the last sentence. That's the secret, if you were wondering how decent regs seem to always pick off river bluffs. People don't valuebet thinly, therefore river bet is completely polarized, if villain is unlikely to have nuts due to preflop/flop action then easy call.

You can exploit nitty regs by paying attention to their bet sizing and how they bet. Sometimes (and the good regs don't do this but sometimes the slight winners do) they bet smaller than usual or bet differently than they do if they have a decent hand, and tell everyone "hey I've got mid/bottom pair" and a 3/4 pot raise will take it down every time as long as you have a shred of credibility. Much more reliable and much less risky than triple-barreling or cr'ing rivers
how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? Quote
11-06-2012 , 05:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tw1n_k0i
For example: Game is 1/2/2 with 5 bring in. NSWTCF(nitty slight winner that can fold) brings it in EP for 5. Couple of limpers behind. I raise to 35 in LP with AKo. NSWTCF calls, others fold. Flop is Q73r. He checks, I bet 2/3 pot. Turn is 2. He checks. I almost never bet again because I know he has a hand like KQ or QJ and is going to call the turn. I will have to fire 3 barrels to win the pot. So I never do. Suppose I fire 3/4 pot on the turn, and 3/4 pot on the river. In your experience, how often does this type of reg fold his KQ here?
Not often enough, which is why we make a lot of money when we play AA like this
how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? Quote
11-06-2012 , 09:27 AM
Just don't give them action without the nuts when they show aggression. Why even bother risking so much to bluff when u can target all the calling stations??? I know a few nits who would just check call aq,kk,aa, and sometimes kq on qxx flops so ur bluff may not even work
how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? Quote
11-06-2012 , 09:48 AM
Good advice so far.

Just wanted to add that I see an issue with the examples in the OP. The bluffs you describe won't work very often because you aren't representing a specific hands that beat your opponents' ranges.

If you want a high % situation vs a nit, try something like this: Next time you are in position on a 2-flush board, and the nit makes a PSB (from a nit, usually indicates a pair that's afraid of the texture). Call the flop, then bet or raise when the flush hits.

It's really easy for nits to say "lucky bastard drew out again" - its a much harder sell when they have to try to figure out if your bet really represents a set or some other non-obvious hand.

Of course, don't make this play with nothing or you won't get enough opportunities to run the bluff to make it worthwhile.
how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? Quote
11-06-2012 , 12:31 PM
One way to exploit tight, nitty regs is to take a free card, something that they offer more than other players.
how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? Quote
11-06-2012 , 05:26 PM
Against most regs I look for cards they think are bad cards....Aces and Kings on the turn are kryptonight to regs...so are the 3rd flush card....type thing. Usually I'm looking for regs that also have a betting tell when they are not happy to help me if I float them planning to make a move.
how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? Quote
11-06-2012 , 06:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Little_blue
Against most regs I look for cards they think are bad cards....Aces and Kings on the turn are kryptonight to regs...so are the 3rd flush card....type thing. Usually I'm looking for regs that also have a betting tell when they are not happy to help me if I float them planning to make a move.
Totally depends on the player. A smart reg isn't automatically giving you credit for turned top pair, and especially not for the flush card unless you've played it like a draw (example, c/c 2 streets & bomb river when the flush comes), and the problem with that last one is it is just not a winning play against a decent player. Either he bets big enough for chasing to be incorrect, or if it's multi-way and you've been check/cold-calling last to act you are going to be snapped off by the other player in the pot who "know you rivered the flush" but can't lay down a flopped 2p.

I think a lot of people underestimate the skill of regs. At least, I'd love to play in these games where all the regs are just predictably weak-tight.
how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? Quote
11-06-2012 , 06:33 PM
A lot of this depends on effective stack sizes. And you haven't mentioned them. If you don't understand why this matters, you're missing something from your poker acumen.

Double barrelling can be good. My experience with triple barrelling at this level is one of pain and suffering.

If you're looking to branch out (and stacks are deep enough) probably the first thing to do is start iso raising e.g. T8s on the button after only 1 or 2 limpers.
how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? Quote
11-06-2012 , 06:48 PM
Great point too, yeah a lot harder to bluff without a good stack size.

Hands like T8s though you have to be wary that you are playing them somewhat deep because you're not playing it as a pure bluff, they are for barreling, and if someone's calling with two bets behind you have to be careful because barreling is not going to scare them off top pair.

Example you raise the BTN with Ts8s, BB calls, headsup flop is Js8d5c. Beauty. You cbet here, probably win the pot a fair portion of the time, but if you get called you barrel any spade, queen, ten, nine, eight or seven. 20 cards. And you look like a maniac doing so because villain still has toppest pair (because he called you) and people think you're super laggy because of this but you do it because if you made trips or 2p you probably win, if you picked up a draw he might fold a weak jack (or depending how nitty even a strong one because you bet twice and might bet again), and if he does call he is for sure paying you on the river if you hit then because what kind of maniac would bluff two streets?

Some players will lay down a good hand to a runner runner 4-straight, not because they think you are specifically making this play but because they really do think you're crazy. It's not a huge deal but something to keep in mind if it would otherwise be a close decision.

Don't fire river if you whiff though, that's suicide. Villains who call two streets are not folding often enough for that to work.

Those are the kind of bluffs that make money at LLSNL.
how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? Quote
11-07-2012 , 12:08 AM
Sorry, stacks are super deep, like 500bb+. In my game there are a few players that I am sure are regular winners. They just play nitty and only bet when they have it. Obviously I'm not happy when they sit down, because even though I am a better player than them, they are taking some of the fish money that I want. The other day I was trying to think how I can make more money off of them. They view me as a tight player, that rarely bluffs. Obviously I need the nuts to play a big pot with them.

But I was wondering if I can blast them off of their made medium strength hands when they are face up. I've never tried, mainly because I don't know if it will be profitable. Anyone had success doing this? Seems like the consensus is it's not worth it. But if a guy is willing to fold his KQ on a Q9347 board after you barrel off 250bb, this can be a huge way to gain an edge. Especially if you do it rarely enough that he never adjusts. I'm having trouble coming with with good example, maybe because they are rare and player-specific, but I'm focused on spots where you know what your opponent has a medium strength hand, and you have to either give up or fire all the way to get him to fold.
how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? Quote
11-07-2012 , 12:37 AM
This sounds like a standard low limit cash game with people dumping money in at certain points. I play a similar $1/$3 game. I don't see it necessary to try to outplay nitty regs that would be labeled yellow online. just stab at pots, make a believable line, but don't three barrel into someone that you don't need to outplay to beat.

You also don't need to look for marginal spots to get value when hearts river on hand #1 because I honestly think any nitty reg calls off any flush there. These players don't comprehend really what you have, only what they have. Realize that & outplay them that way...not by trying to be the hero trying to outplay players that aren't thinking on any sort of level you are setting them up to be on.
how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? Quote
11-07-2012 , 12:43 AM
If you want to bluff a nit off a hand, don't do it heads-up. Do it when there is a third player in the pot who you can use to squeeze a nit off of a medium-strength hand.
how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? Quote
11-07-2012 , 10:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DK Barrel
Totally depends on the player. A smart reg isn't automatically giving you credit for turned top pair, and especially not for the flush card unless you've played it like a draw (example, c/c 2 streets & bomb river when the flush comes), and the problem with that last one is it is just not a winning play against a decent player. Either he bets big enough for chasing to be incorrect, or if it's multi-way and you've been check/cold-calling last to act you are going to be snapped off by the other player in the pot who "know you rivered the flush" but can't lay down a flopped 2p.

I think a lot of people underestimate the skill of regs. At least, I'd love to play in these games where all the regs are just predictably weak-tight.
I probably should of said nit not reg. But honestly I've been playing 1-2 for about a year and a half and my biggest leak by far (well at least the one I notice) is assuming anyone can play well. If you play 2-5 or higher or in clubs instead of a casino I cold see this being the case but not 1-2 in a casino.

Player do not shift there games, unless you pond on them. If I see a player check a scare card or fold to one...you can attact them, they are not thinking, oh he's a tag, I can call top pair here or thats a scare card so he going to raise the turn here a lot. If you see a player call down light on a scare card, he's not thinking that a great card for him to bluff me I'm calling, he's thinking this guy bluffs a lot I'm calling.

Sure Ive had players who I thought were capable of foldind and they called me down on scare cards. And I thought my god he's good, then I watched, he turned out to call everyone he thought might ever bluff down light. Now I just value bet him to death on cards that I would never bluff and I sole own him.

Players at this level do not hand read...either they always call you down or they fold to scare cards. they just are not capable of the next level of thinking.
how do tight, slightly winning regs that can fold react in rare spots? Quote

      
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