So this hand happened other night at my local casino card room. $1/2, table is mostly very passive except for 2-3 players (one maniac, two lags, rest are fit/fold very passive).

My image on this table has been tight and relatively aggressive with strong hands ( I will fire back but I don't tend to get too out of line with just pairs or anything) and seeing the table so passive I begin to C-bet a little more and take some pots a little more easily. I'm stealing pots and also getting paid value on my made hands after about 3 hours of plays.

Villian in this hand has been a bit LAG like, he's not afraid to chase down some pretty unusual lines and has shown down suited connectors catching runner runner straights and also isn't afraid to make big value bets with pairs, but he isn't a maniac making huge raises with like 7-10 suited or anything. He's made some pretty hero folds too I've observed. He does tend to play his hands hard and fast , this hand is only one of a few hands I've seen him just call along.


The hand:

I'm on button with 33 (my stack is around $450), limps/folds to me, I decide to raise it up to $10.

Villian in BB calls (stack is around $250-$300), one other caller, we go to flop heads up.

Flop is 83A rainbow and pot is around $30.

Villian checks, other checks, and I bet about $15. I feel like this is a pretty great flop for my set and no obvious scary draws so I don't want to chase anyone away but figure if someone has an Ace they might play another street.

Villian insta calls, other player folds

Turn is 5 and puts a now possible flush draw out there.

Villian checks, I bet $35, villian insta calls

River is a 9 and no flush is completed.

Villian checks and I'm thinking some value here and pot is around $115.

I bet about $35 because I'm never check/checking a set unless it's a super wet board, villian thinks for about 30 seconds than goes all in for around $180 total (so about 5x my river bet)....

Pot is now around $300.

I go into the tank to the point where another player comments "you know it has been a bit of a long time..." so I'm sensing a clock call soon.

I'm sitting in the tank trying to run through so many things, he just called all the way I'm thinking. Is it A9 which we crush, or is it set over set or 67 that just got there? Why didn't he raise until now? How often do we have to be right with bottom set for this to be profitable long term here? If this is a brilliant bluff wouldn't it work better if the flush completed? But if he thinks I only have like AQ would I really call that huge bet?


These river shoves sometimes perplex me off and online, they're either the nuts or a complete bluff....

Anyways what do people think? Are you folding here or insta calling with a set of 3s? And what do you base your response on?

Thanks!

Raising pre here with 33 is pointless. And if you insist on raising after a couple people have limped, I would go to at least $15 otherwise you're just juicing the pot in a hand where you are likely going to miss and fold OTF.

I'd much rather have 89s if you're raising it up.

As played, this should be an easy call - the strength of your hand is disguised and his range is very wide.

Why is 67 running through your mind? What sort of player is calling flop bets with no pair no draw 7 high. That is truly a MUBSY thought process.

Your river bet is too small. Make it at least 60 to get some value from Ax.

There is always the WTF factor in live poker. Sometimes people spaz out with a relatively weak hand because they misinterpret the situation. Hard to assign a probability to WTF play, but it is certainly a consideration at the LSSNL level. He can be value betting worse hands than A9 here.

As played, easy call. You set yourself up for this by making a weak river bet which could easily induce a bluff or a value bet from worse. If he has the one hand we should be afraid of, 24, then so be it.

Overlimp pre

Size up turn

River is criminally small. AP, if we are going to bet this sizing OTR we are not bet folding.

River shoves should be polarized like this, so it's not like they are making a mistake by doing this.

As for the hand, preflop should be bigger. Usually you're trying to take it down or iso a limper. $10 is more of a pot sweetner, which I guess is OK, but at a table like you described I'm looking to try to get into spots with 1 or 2 callers, or just overlimp.

Flop is fine. Turn bet should be sized up a tad, but isn't that bad.

On the river, unless you have a good read on his tendencies, there's no need to bet this small. I usually only go stupid small or downbet the river when the board texture has changed. Here, the 9 changes nothing, so the aren't really and hands that call $35 that fold to $55. I think this is a good spot for about a 1/2 pot bet.

When he jams, I think you need to call with all your sets. I assume you would play AK/AQ the same way, so from a minimum defense frequency, sets should be a defend. He could also be overplaying 2-pair, and your tiny bet size may have induced a bluff. I'm calling here, but I'm not quite fist-pumping it.

In one of Ed Miller's early NL books he advocated sometimes making pot-sweetener raises from LP with small PPs, to increase the likelihood of being able to stack someone.

Of course, having some extra FE post-flop can't hurt either.

$20 flop, $65-70 turn, shove river. I'm not folding. Expecting to see 99.

Insta-call

the short answer is yes

well F**k me haha. I do have a couple of his books too. But I think you get where I am coming from.

The problem with this sizing pre is that it turns your hand face up to anyone paying attention.As played snap,your small sizing might have induced some spew and he can have aces up for value.

call... sorry you lost.

Thanks all for the great feedback, some really good stuff and thoughtful replies that are def going to be useful in approaching these spots in the future:

Good point, I wouldn't usually raise 33 on the button but figured since the table was pretty passive, it made sense. But I see your point too, we're missing the flop a lot here with 33 and maybe if we had more limpers and raised to like $15 to take the pot right there it makes more sense.

I don't know where the 67 thought came from, I actually didn't consider 24 as it seems even more WTF for villian to have, then again like you said the WTF factor exists...so we're in for a WTF surprise sometimes.

During my tanking he kept asking me if I had AQ (which I guess makes sense from his perspective if he's thinking at all and figures I'm tighter and AQ is a raising hand esp from the button). He also asked me if I really thought he was crazy enough to call 3 all the way with 67.

I had seen him chase down gutshots before in the evening so maybe that's where the MUBSY was coming from.

I agree my bet was small, I'm never checking here of course and was thinking value but I agree I could have made it bigger.

Thanks. I usually overlimp here with small pocket pairs, figured I could be a bit more aggressive on a passive table but I see your point.

I agree with the AK/AQ and in fact I suspect villian thought maybe that's what I had. I should have bet more but I think he still shoves over me here. As for the not quite a fist pump, I agree, it was one of these spots where you really wonder. Long term it seems this is a profitable call though.

From a poker strat perspective I respected his move and villian and I chatted a bit later in the night about that hand. I thought it was a really great shove on his part, it made me go WTF esp on that board, but this was assuming he was thinking/competent enough to think through that AK/AQ makes sense for me to raise here. Then again if he thought I was tight and playing that way, a shove like that isn't getting called much so maybe it was a great bluff to push me off. Or he figured I would not be able to believe he beat me on river and would sigh call. It's interesting how many ways we can think about villian's move here, overall whether he had it or not the shove was a what makes poker so much fun.

I play online as well and see so many check/shoves on rivers its quite amazing. And it's either a monster getting there on river or a complete bluff. As you said it's so polarizing, so it's hard to tell sometimes and it's often a great play to short circuit another player (in this case me) and their thought process.

I wonder if I had just bet huge or even shoved on river would villian have called.

I like this. I haven't read his books but I do sometimes notice that we can throw people off by raising hands or spots we don't always raise. Same table same night, I chased down a guy with a king high flush draw by continuing a cbet on flop, he checked turn, we hit river flush, I go for 3/4 pot bet he just can't believe it and calls with a pair. We had air until river. So I like sweetening the pot, I just struggle sometimes to find the right spots to do it.

I like the variety in possibilities I'm hearing in this thread. I absolutely felt a bigger set could have been there. But do we absolutely have to call 100% of the time if we really believe set over set?

Yeah I kind of agree. I rarely fold sets esp on pretty dry boards.

I got it too.It makes sense, I didn't understand fully why I was raising here pre but Miller's point makes sense in that context. I think it throws people off when these type of plays are made and doesn't seem like what you usually would do there.

In terms of making it face up, it seems like it makes AK or AQ face up but not 333. It seemed really well disguised, and I do think it was either he had me crushed by river or he was spewing Ax or two pair.

Thanks again. I ended up folding When I made this post I was smacking myself for folding because I do think it's a call here even though they do show up with spazzy 24 and 67 sometimes or come up with a higher set. I've seen players calling constantly these smallish value bets on flops and turns with pocket pairs and 2 outs to spike it and then they shove river and so many go broke here because they just can't believe their little set is no good. Hell I had top set on a board once, and a guy chased me down at 1/2 live on 1/2 pot bets heads up as every street for runner runner gutshot.

Ironically, same day I posted this, this piece went up about folding bottom and middle sets: https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/i...game-32350.htm

Interesting video and read for sure. Not saying it's right esp for my OP post but makes one think about those rare spots when folding a set makes sense.