1/3 effective stack = 330.

Table has been playing loose, people stacking off w top pair consistently. Hero has been playing nitted but i picked up strong hands in the last couple orbits so ive been active.

The main villain in this hand is a creative loose aggressive fish. He doesnt seem to have much concept of poker. Ive seen him cold call 3bets OOP and just make some weird plays and bluffs. I have not seen him make an All in bet on the river ever. (after just 2 hours of play) call him LAG fish.

OTTH
EP fish limps. MP tight fish limps. Hero CO JJds raises to 20. BB LAG fish calls.
HU
(47) FLop 652hhd
x hero bets 25. BB c/r to 50. Hero calls.
(147) Turn Jc
BB bets 65. Hero raises to 265 ALL IN.

Not sure if I should be flat calling her OTT or just ripping it in.
Things I consider important:
-coolering a set/2pair before a scare card rolls off.
-I dont know what frequency he will fire the river as a bluff. (how should i react if we goes all in on a scary river?)
-Hes a LAG fish should i just let him bluff?
-Will he bluff shove the riv on a brick?
-The pot is already pretty big I can just pick it up now.

Have to rip it. If you flat you're giving him pretty decent odds for a drawing hand. If he has a set or two pair he's calling your ship all day, if he has a flush draw you can't guarantee he's ripping it in on the river if he misses, and with these types of players I've noticed that in these spots spewy opponents are stickier than they should be when they lead out with a draw. Odds might not be right for him to call a drawing hand but I'm guessing he might call light here once he puts the 65 in. Between sets/two pairs/draws too many hands he's calling with, and since you haven't seen him ship it on the river yet no reason to think he's going to bluff it off. Plus say a heart peels off on the R and he insta-shoves? Put yourself in a weird spot when you could have easily gotten it in with the best of it.

We managed to get this HU in position, so fine, but man that seems unexpected to me at this table (it seems to me the EP fish would call as soon as the BB does, and then that means MP would also get aboard the train). Anyhoo.

I think the first thing we have to ask ourselves is whether we are comfortable playing for stacks postflop against this guy having only gotten in 6% of our stack preflop. I'm definitely not, so with that in mind I probably check back the flop to allow him to get creative on later streets where we've underrepped our hand and likely kept stacks out of play. If we're fine playing for stacks, then we're cooler with betting and facing a raise, and we could even bet larger to gets stacks in quicker.

I think the turn kinda bailed us out as I'm not exactly sure what our plan was the rest of the way, unless we were totally fine with being committed with just the overpair. Anyhoo, I'm fine with jamming now as there are a crapload of action killing cards, he could have enough outs where he thinks chasing is fine, and even though he can get creative some of the time a flop check/raise is a big hand which he's cool stacking off with. ETA: Also good point above regarding we can't expect someone who's never went all-in on the river yet to bluff one more time for stacks.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Shove is fine. If he folds, so be it. Lots of scare cards for both of you on the river -- let him call w/ his flush draw or A6 (we hope!).

In game I might raise turn to $165 leaving $100 which is obviously going on on the river. V’s sometimes are affected by the absolute size of the bet and i’d Guess $165 leaving V with some chips gets called way more than $265 AI.

I think I disagree with this. There are too many hands that continue on the flop - certainly some beat us (sets and 2-pair - I'm thinking 18 total combos of 66,55,22; 2 combos of 65s; and 4 combos of 43s) but we are ahead of a lot more combos, enough that I don't even think we can count them: FDs, SDs, combo draws, all PPs (can't see him having a PP bigger than JJ), pair and draw (like 54s), just top pair. I would much prefer to bet the flop and get value from those hands than to pot control / underrep here.

Stacking off with an overpair is rarely comfortable, but I'm certainly willing to do it on a draw heavy board against a LAG player.

The min-check-raise is a bit weird and suspicious, but I'm still thinking 3-betting OTF to deny equity to strong drawing hands might be the best play. We win if we can make a hand like Axhh fold, which has I think around 40% equity against us, while also not minding getting it in vs that.

And I know someone is going to say "we just turned our hand face up and villain can play perfectly against us!" Did we? What if we had Axhh, KQhh, KJhh, QJhh, etc.? Or a combo draw like 76hh or 87hh? What if we had 2 pair with 65s, or 66 or 55? We might not iso-raise pre-flop with 66, 55, 65s every time, but they're not impossible raises from LP. So we have many stronger value hands and semi-bluffs here that can all legitimately take the 3-bet all-in line.

3-betting AI here is bad if you only do it with overpairs; but as part of a wider strategy, I think making this play with an overpair is valid.

^^^^

This basically boils down to whether you're cool stacking off with an overpair on a drawy board getting in just 6% of your stack preflop. If you are, by all means go for immediate value right away / protect your hand (and wider range for other spots) / never fold to a check/raise / likely get it in ASAP. I'm just not convinced that's going to be a winning long term play (but you're free to disagree), so I lean to taking a route that doesn't get me in that spot.

Gdecideyourplanandfollowthruwithit,imoG

It's probably close enough either way that the EV doesn't change too much, unless someone can accurately calculate this; but even with programs like Pokerstove, I'm not sure we can accurately assign a range to villain here, and calculating equity based on an inaccurate guesstimate of villain's range is pretty much the same as just guestimating equity in the first place. So high variance line or low variance line? Up to individual style I guess. I like to get into marginally +EV gaaamboooools =D

this is nonsense. We are not going all in by betting flop. Checking back flop against a limped call hand on this board is an ev disaster and you absolutely need to bet. You're being results oriented because he raised us.

we should expect to be able to bet twice and then check behind on the river. if were worried three streets is too thin, we should look to bet turn flop and turn, and check back river. we are def not committing to stacking off and if we get raised we can evaluate based on the action

we also need to call the raise and also call any turn that doesnt bring the flush. AP I like the jam on the turn for sure. it feels bad when he folds but you need to not let him play perfect poker with a flush draw and charge him for his chance to break you. If he has a made hand the flush could also be a action killer

Checking back the flop is 100%, pure stupid.

I play it the same way. We are crushing his range on the turn. We have top set FFS.

It was actually a cold call by BB with the 2 limpers left to act who both folded. With a higher board like 8 7 3 for example, it would be a bigger disaster to check behind because that board connects with many more hands, but 6 5 2 two toned is still somewhat dry because BB should fold a lot of the smallest SCs and 1 gappers, and almost definitely folding small off-suit hands. Mid-ranked cards like 98o on the other hand, might call and see a flop, and 98s is calling pre 100% of the time.

I definitely advocate to bet the flop, but HU on a 6 high board, I don't think it's a disaster check especially against a fishy LAG. The merit to that play is to let this guy bluff at us with something that might not call a flop bet. I think is a poorer choice than betting out, but not a disaster play I don't think.

I think JJ is too high up in the range to check back flop, would prefer to do it with 77-99 type stuff. To answer GG I am fine with playing for stacks against a LAGfish. He has a bunch of flush draws, pair + gutshot, OESD, TT-99, and I doubt he flats better overpairs pre. And we don't block any flush draws.

On the turn a shove is pretty imbalanced but against a fish I don't think it matters. I really doubt we bluff in this spot so if you think he's just a gamble monkey and will call it off with a draw then it is the best option. Also if you think he will fold a lower set on the river if a scarecard comes then shoving turn is best.

I wouldn't hate a call either since he can have air or be crushed with TT-77, or spazzing with gutshots like 44, 33, A4, A3. There's a lot of spaz combos we don't want to blow him off either.

Checking back the flop is playing scared to me. Do we really want to give 16 combos of KQ, 8 combos each of KJ and QJ, all the Ax that missed or already has one pair, as well as 77-99 a free card that could beat us? If we had AA or KK here maybe I could get there but I still think we lose a ton of value by checking here as so many V's with a small pair will put us on overs and call.

Turn is a rip unless you know the guy to be a complete nit who will fold all but the str8 getting better than 2-1.

Even though you don't state it directly, you seem to be asking if you overplayed your hand without giving V another chance to bluff at the pot.

Kinda.

But since they are hard to predict, you never know. Maybe your V would call an all in with something as light as top pair and a gutter.

As played, I like clicking it back to 165 better. For novice players like your V, there is a certain psychological stigma about being all in versus calling off chunks of their stack piece by piece.

This always bugs me about new posters in this forum is all the assumptions about what other players in the game SHOULD be doing. As those of us who have played for 10 years or have 10000 hours of live play time, we know that rec players, and lots of semi pro or pro players will do just about anything at any time with the right set of circumstances or game dynamics.

And this comes from newbies watching lots of training videos or reading books on poker theory and then assuming that every V at their table is aware of basic poker theory and then abiding by those guidelines. No. They are not. And a huge subset of player behavior and hand ranges is better understood from thousands of hours of observation versus the small sample that poker theory teaches us.

So assume as much as you like, but don't be surprised when you are frequently wrong.

The SPR is 6.5 which means stacks can go in just 3 bets. If you bet the flop and face a raise, or a turn donk, or if you even bet flop/turn and face a river donk, all those decisions will be for stacks.

In this case here, we ended up facing a flop check/raise. How often in your experience does a flop check/raiser not follow thru with a turn bet? If he makes a turn bet of just 2/3 PSB, that'll leave us with just a 2/3 PSB left for the river. We're facing commitment decisions as soon as we bet the flop, imo.

So, make your commitment decision before you bet the flop. If you're cool with being committed (as some here are against this guy, and that's fine), then you're more cool with betting the flop and working towards commitment (noticing how no one is bet/folding against this guy, which you could perhaps do against a more ABC player). If you're not cool with being committed (which I'm not, but that's me), then you should more likely lean to checking back the flop and getting to showdown.

GimoG

i mean you kind of have to be careful about what you are arguing for gg. obviously even if villian is playing a very tight range jj is obviously ahead of said range so making a bet when you are ahead of their range is usually a good idea. especially when villian can have plenty of hands that are good enough to call that we beat.

long story short its obvious a +ev to bet the flop with jacks in this spot.

But most people bet/fold here, and against ABC players that's fine. Betting to call a raise and subsequent bets for stacks is very meh *unless* you're cool with committing (and I'll simply leave that decision up to you).

Flop+ decisions become a thousand times more interesting had we not nutted up on the turn (which basically bailed us out, imo).

Gmakeyourdecisionbeforeyoubet,imoG

Not betting this flop is crazy. It's draw-heavy and we are heads up against a loose/aggressive fish who makes weird plays and bluffs! This is the ideal spot to bet. It's a crime not to bet -- especially since he also seems to slow down on the river. He can check/raise with a ton of worse hands, too, and I'm never folding to his min-raise. I doubt I'd fold to a bigger raise given reads.

gg, sometimes I think you just play tight, scared money or assume every game is like your game or every opponent plays as you do. They are not and they do not, thank goodness. Please reply to OP's reads, not how you think the game is played.

I'll stand by my original viewpoint. In general, getting in just 6% of stacks preflop and then stacking off postflop for the remaining 94% against almost everyone (even this guy) with just an overpair is pretty lol bad. So I do something different on the flop that doesn't lead me down that road while still getting ok value from what will mostly end up being a very mediocre hand.

GbutyouguysarewelcometoplayhowyouwantG

Flop bet is correct and for fat value. Turn ripping it in seems correct IME bad laggy types will call it off with all kinds of draws and two pair hands in this situation.

AP I could think of a number of hands Id jam here, with that, JJ particularly w no heart seems like a very routine shove.