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Old 04-06-2014, 11:03 AM   #1
ryno19
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How can I fold this?

1/3

Hero MP (300) probably seen as tilting, just lost 2 big hands within the orbit. Kings lost to jacks, jacks lost to queens.
Villain OTB (250) early 20s. Thought he knew what he was doing, competent type player.

2 limpers in front of me, I call with J10hh
1 limper behind
V raises to $22
Bb calls
Fold to me, as I'm counting out chips thinking, guy behind me mucks out of turn
I was thinking this is such an obvious spot for a squeeze, I don't think this guy has anything. And the bb has been a station all night, wasn't worried about his call.
I call
Flop (71) Qh 7h 3d
Bb checks
Hero checks knowing a c-bet is coming
V bets 55 leaving him roughly 175
Bb folds
Pot (126)
I know I'm not getting the right odds for the flush draw, but I'm still very confident that this guy is on air as I was watching him the whole time I am contemplating this call and he seems very uncomfortable. And if I'm right I have 15 outs

Hero?

I mean lets face it, unless you are playing OMC who thinks $12 Is a suitable bet for every pot, no one is ever giving you the right odds for draws heads up. Do you guys strictly follow the odds, or do you deviate based on circumstance and feel?
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Old 04-06-2014, 11:15 AM   #2
Koss
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Get in the habit of raising pre instead of overlimping.

Why are you so sure he's on air? Does he play his made hands differently? Does his c-bet narrow his range at all? If his range is wide this is a good spot to jam. Even if his calling range is wide you aren't in terrible shape.
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Old 04-06-2014, 11:19 AM   #3
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Re: How can I fold this?

First off I hate the limp with this hand. If you are going to play it, raise and this spot wouldn't have happened.

As played I am never just calling here if I think villain has air. If we call and make our hand V is never paying us off. Just jam over his c-bet if you are confident w your read. Considering your image he may call light though.
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Old 04-06-2014, 11:30 AM   #4
ryno19
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Re: How can I fold this?

I've played with him several times. His line seems to be that he is going to try to blow you off your hand before showdown regardless of what he holds... Already saw him get caught twice at this table.
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Old 04-06-2014, 11:46 AM   #5
chiefsfan17
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Your first and biggest mistake is over-limping. That is bad no matter what reasoning you think you may have.

Your 2nd mistake is thinking about this for more than 2 seconds and doing anything but just shoving. There is literally no other option here but to shove, so what is this thread?
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Old 04-06-2014, 11:51 AM   #6
ryno19
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Re: How can I fold this?

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so what is this thread?
It's a thread for someone who obviously isn't as good as you are and is trying to improve by asking questions. Sorry i wasted 30 seconds of your life.
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Old 04-06-2014, 12:47 PM   #7
19ki
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Re: How can I fold this?

Implied odds, if he will pay you off when you hit your flush then call, its very player dependent
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Old 04-06-2014, 01:10 PM   #8
ryno19
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Re: How can I fold this?

I actually ended up calling and hit the Kh on the turn. I led out $120 and after a long tank he called leaving only about $50 behind
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Old 04-06-2014, 01:17 PM   #9
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Re: How can I fold this?

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It's a thread for someone who obviously isn't as good as you are and is trying to improve by asking questions. Sorry i wasted 30 seconds of your life.
Right on, Man, regulate.

Oh, and don't over-limp. Like, ever.
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Old 04-06-2014, 01:24 PM   #10
NeverScurred
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Re: How can I fold this?

In general OP, the fact that your opponent is likely bluffing should actually make you less likely to call with your draw. Since you only have Jack high, even most of his bluffs will beat you at showdown, and he won't often have a good enough hand to put much more money in when you hit (whereas if he has a strong hand, your implied odds increase because villain will almost always stack off when you hit). However, as another poster alluded to, the best option in spots where you have a draw and your opponent if often bluffing is to re-bluff them, because you can win the pot that way despite your lack of showdown value, and even if they call you semi-bluff you can still potentially hit your draw and win. On this flop, given your read, check/raising all-in would be your best move.

Continuing the theme of playing aggressively and having a chance to win without showdown, you'd be much better off raising this hand preflop the first time action gets to you, as others have said. But once you limp and he raises, I'd probably just fold rather than play the hand out of position and without the betting initiative.
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Old 04-06-2014, 03:06 PM   #11
ryno19
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Re: How can I fold this?

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In general OP, the fact that your opponent is likely bluffing should actually make you less likely to call with your draw. Since you only have Jack high, even most of his bluffs will beat you at showdown, and he won't often have a good enough hand to put much more money in when you hit (whereas if he has a strong hand, your implied odds increase because villain will almost always stack off when you hit). However, as another poster alluded to, the best option in spots where you have a draw and your opponent if often bluffing is to re-bluff them, because you can win the pot that way despite your lack of showdown value, and even if they call you semi-bluff you can still potentially hit your draw and win. On this flop, given your read, check/raising all-in would be your best move.

Continuing the theme of playing aggressively and having a chance to win without showdown, you'd be much better off raising this hand preflop the first time action gets to you, as others have said. But once you limp and he raises, I'd probably just fold rather than play the hand out of position and without the betting initiative.
Thank you, this makes a lot of sense. Believe it or not I actually do tend to raise rather than limp in, but a couple times a session I just have brain farts and play hands horribly from the jump. I think the fact that I was running so horribly affected my judgement on this one. Plus I am reading all these posts on here and lately it jus seems like I have a million things going thru my head when I'm playing...I hear all the advice on here and it's just not flowing smoothly in my head yet.

As it turned out I got very lucky that I just called flop because my read was correct and he had nothing, then the turn must have given him 4 hearts cause he called my $120 turn bet and folded the river to my shove. I asked how he coul fold there and he said " I assumed you beat ace high" so I'm guessing he had Ah. Luckily he played the hand even worse than I did and my opinion of him changed after this one.

But I do see how horribly I played this, and I knew it at the time, that's why I posted it on here. An that's why I post the hands I do post... Just to try to eliminate these bone head lines I seem to take 2-3 times a session
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Old 04-06-2014, 03:38 PM   #12
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Re: How can I fold this?

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Originally Posted by ryno19 View Post
Luckily he played the hand even worse than I did and my opinion of him changed after this one.
I do not agree with the assessment that he played it worse than you. I'd say that you definitely played this hand the worst but you got lucky on the turn. Overlimping was the least of your issues. You aren't deep enough to call his raise pre That call is really really bad. On the flop this is a trivial easy shove with all the money in the pot. Calling against air when you can't beat air is really bad.
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Old 04-06-2014, 03:49 PM   #13
Mr_Doomed
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Re: How can I fold this?

Where did u get the idea I have 15 outs with 2 under cards and a flush draw? Pre is a simple raise or fold. As played check shoving the flop is the only way to play it.
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Old 04-06-2014, 03:55 PM   #14
ryno19
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Re: How can I fold this?

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Originally Posted by GrindPokerAllDay View Post
You aren't deep enough to call his raise pre That call is really really bad. On the flop this is a trivial easy shove with all the money in the pot. Calling against air when you can't beat air is really bad.
Is this SPR you are referring to? I really need to wrap my head around that
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Old 04-06-2014, 03:57 PM   #15
ryno19
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Re: How can I fold this?

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Where did u get the idea I have 15 outs with 2 under cards and a flush draw? Pre is a simple raise or fold. As played check shoving the flop is the only way to play it.
9 hearts
3 jacks
3 tens
15 outs
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Old 04-06-2014, 04:14 PM   #16
GrindPokerAllDay
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Re: How can I fold this?

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Is this SPR you are referring to? I really need to wrap my head around that
No. The pot size is not what I'm concerned with. Treat it more like set mining except with worse odds. I am concerned only with the raise size relative to the effective stack sizes the original raiser and I are playing with. We are not deep enough here to call regardless but in particular we shouldn't be calling vs this villain because we are OOP and his hand range is wide which means that it will be difficult for us to hit and get him to stack off.
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Old 04-06-2014, 04:22 PM   #17
ryno19
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Re: How can I fold this?

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No. The pot size is not what I'm concerned with. Treat it more like set mining except with worse odds. I am concerned only with the raise size relative to the effective stack sizes the original raiser and I are playing with. We are not deep enough here to call regardless but in particular we shouldn't be calling vs this villain because we are OOP and his hand range is wide which means that it will be difficult for us to hit and get him to stack off.
Ok, so I there a ratio to look for here? I mean there is $130 in the pot but only $22 of it is mine, I still have almost $300 in my stack. Just trying to make sense of why this size pot is worth risking my stack over. The general consensus seems to be I shouldn't be in this pot to begin with, but now that I'm here the obvious move is to semi bluff my entire stack. So is it because the pot Is over 1/3 of my stack, or is it because the v simply is going to fold most of the time here?
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Old 04-06-2014, 04:28 PM   #18
ryno19
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Re: How can I fold this?

I guess quite simply, I get that everyone thinks this is an obvious shove, but what I don't get is WHY everyone thinks this is an obvious shove?
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Old 04-06-2014, 04:46 PM   #19
NeverScurred
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Re: How can I fold this?

Let's say villain calls our raise with {QJ+,QQ+,77,33,AhKh}, a range against which we have 35% equity. We "risk" 230 by shoving, but when he calls we are entitled to 35% of the final pot of ~530, or 185.5, meaning we only lose $44.5 on average when called. We win $125 when we shove and he folds. So we're essentially getting almost 3:1 on our bluff, meaning he only has to fold a little over 25% of the time for a shove to be profitable.
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Old 04-06-2014, 04:48 PM   #20
GrindPokerAllDay
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Re: How can I fold this?

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Originally Posted by ryno19 View Post
Ok, so I there a ratio to look for here? I mean there is $130 in the pot but only $22 of it is mine, I still have almost $300 in my stack. Just trying to make sense of why this size pot is worth risking my stack over. The general consensus seems to be I shouldn't be in this pot to begin with, but now that I'm here the obvious move is to semi bluff my entire stack. So is it because the pot Is over 1/3 of my stack, or is it because the v simply is going to fold most of the time here?
Don't worry about the pot size. Only concern yourself with the raisers stack size relative to the raise size. 25x for suited connectors is a fair rule of thumb. So in general if he raised it $19 then I would want effective stacks equal to 19*25 = $475.

For simplicity sake, consider a scenario where players are putting $10 in a pot and running it blind. If you are heads up, the value of this to you is essentially $10 (50% chance of winning $20 = $10). If there are 3 players the value of this is still $10 (33% chance of winning $30). If there are 10 players, the value of this is still $10 (10% chance of winning $100). As the pot grows our value does not necessarily increase by much if at all.

Now consider that in your scenario you are going into the hand with weaker fundamentals than your opponent: ie weaker hand, weaker position, passive rather than aggressive. As such we are actually in a worse position than if everyone had agreed to run it out blind.
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Old 04-06-2014, 05:20 PM   #21
ryno19
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Re: How can I fold this?

Starting to click... Thanks guys
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Old 04-06-2014, 05:32 PM   #22
kenshi3
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Re: How can I fold this?

Please explain why u don't limp with marginal hands like J10 suited or suited connectors, KQ, KJ, QJ? low pairs-medium pairs? When at least 3 ppl on the table always calls u even if its a $10-15 dollar bet. If you don't hit you're screwed, cuz chances are some else will hit and call your cbet. Should we be raising to $20-25 wit these hands then? But wouldn't that put us in chip loss danger very quickly if we just run into 1 or 2 guys who hit hard?
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Old 04-06-2014, 06:03 PM   #23
ryno19
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Re: How can I fold this?

Uuuuggggghhhhh
Straddled pot to $6
UTG (230)limps for 6
Folds to me in button I raise to $21 with Ac7c
Straddle (150) and limper call
Flop 8c5c4d
Check
UTG bets $60
I shove (300)
Fold
Tank call
Turn 7d
River 10h
V flips over pocket QQ (really? Who plays QQ that way?)

Anyway, just thought I'd share.

Better? Lol
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Old 04-06-2014, 08:35 PM   #24
ryno19
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Re: How can I fold this?

I'm 0-3 doing it this way today lol
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Old 04-06-2014, 08:38 PM   #25
ryno19
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Re: How can I fold this?

Luckily I'm still winning though
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