25c/50c home game, play is generally horrendous, need some math to prove something here.

H - UTG - $80 - Don't think I'm being out of line by saying one of the best players at the game, one of only 2 or 3 capable of thinking above level 1.

V1 - MP - Covers - total and utter fish. Will do weird things like check-raise 47o on 4 5 5 in a 3b pot, call 3 or 4bs from OOP with hands like K5s, check-raise then BOMB BOMB with total air but also doesn't seem to go too crazy when he actually has top pair type hands.

V2 - button - $60 - fairly new to the game but seems aggressive in spots and does seem to get it. Capable of running bluffs that others aren't. Does seem to steam sometimes (last week he limp-3b with AJo no diamond from UTG then jammed for >pot on the all diamond flop to get snapped by Q high flopped flush).


OTTH:

H opens UTG to $2 with AKo, V1 flats, V2 3b to $20. H?

Is this the easiest shove of all time here? I guess a decent range for V2 is 88+ and AQ+, maybe a bit wider sometimes, and maybe he folds 88-TT to a shove? Probably not though he's a bit drunk and gambly.

V1 can really have anything and god alone knows what he's doing vs a shove.

Against your range for a drunk/gambly palyer, for just over 100bb, I would shove, especially if you have any fold equity and definitely if there is a chance V1 will call.

Hmm, don't want to come across as questioning your ranging, but unless he truly is drunk and gambly, I'd avoid flipping for 120 bbs effective.

You raised from EP with a solid image, caller in between. He then 3-bet 1/3 stack. Looks like a 4-bet will get called, so I'd lean toward a call, check/eval all flops. If he is fired-up, will likely c-bet 100% of the time.

Isn't this pretty -EV to call for 1/4 effective stacks and then check-fold two thirds of flops?

Assuming the in-between calls, I view it as marginal EV+. Flopping TP ~32% of the time should generate +EV from the PFR, and potential value from the other V. Clearly not huge. I probably fold in a vacuum, but it sounds like your live read on the PFR leans against that action.

I shove solely based on V2's history. You block AA/KK and will be up against other AK/QQ and maybe worse. Against a complete unknown, I'd snap fold. I'm never calling here and playing AK oop with a super low SPR.

Here's how I think about this spot:

1. I think this is shove or fold. Putting in 1/3 of effective stacks with the 3-better with AK, I want to be able to see all 5 cards. Calling and folding blank flops is a mess.
2. If V is 3-betting just JJ+/AK I fold. There's no dead money really, we're only 40% against this range and he's never folding any of it.
3. If V is 3-betting decent pocket pairs and AK, I shove if I think he can fold pairs worse than JJ, and fold if I think he's calling with basically his entire range. If called we're still a bit of a dog against this range, but if we can get some folds I think it's profitable.
4. If V is 3-betting non-pocket pairs other than AK, I shove. Now we can get involved with some hands that we have dominated, which offset the times he has AA or KK.

Sounds like you think V is #4, so I shove.

3-bet size is huge, which makes him very polarized, imo. This is either a bet that wants no calls (mostly low PPs or Ax with x in the T-Q range), a bet trying to level us into thinking that it wants no calls (AA).

As much as I'd kinda like to call to lure the fish in, we're not really deep enough, so I agree with a shove here.