1/2 NL

Hero (~$600) is early-20s white male playing pretty standard TAG, hasn't shown down anything bluffy, has won a few pots without showdown with pre-flop raise/c-bets.

Villain (~$250) is 30ish white male, tattoos, headphones, AC hat, most aggro player at the (very passive) table but not a maniac. In a previous hand raised the river on a JK797 board with AK after being led into and then folded when the initial bettor shoved (and showed 77).

Hero is UTG with QQ and raises to $10. Folds to villain in MP who calls, folds around.

Flop (Pot $23)
J28
Hero bets $15, villain calls.

Turn (Pot $53)
4
Hero bets $40, villain raises to $80.
Hero...?

He's aggro but doesn't raise with air, judging from the last hand. The 4 appears like a blank to me. His range is AJ, 22, 88, T9, JJ, KK, AA (I doubt he floated with 44) if he plays TAG. He seems like the guy who wouldn't slowplay a set or an overpair on the flop and overvalues top pair, so AJ and T9 are the more probable holdings in his range. I would call and re-eval on river. Shoving seems bad here as you're most likely only getting called by better.

zzz there are no real draws he could have except exactly 9T, he doesn't seem like the player to do this with air. The only value hand you beat that he could have here is AJ but it doesn't make sense for him to c/minraise that hand OTT when you've put out two strong PSB's and the board is SOOOO dry. I'd be very careful here you can flat and re-eval river but if you folded I wouldn't think it's terrible. His sizing set's him up perfectly for a turn shove.

If you make it to showdown take some fatty notes, these are exactly the type of villain lines that are majorly beneficial to have notes on for future hands.

Thanks. I basically figured AJ is the only hand I can beat here and winced as I called.
The river brought the Q and bailed me out, I checked, he shoved, I snap-called and tabled top set. He angrily mucked face-down and said he had a set. For what it's worth, the two guys sitting to my right told me afterwards they didn't believe he actually had the set, and one of them has played with the villain a decent amount.
Do I pretty much have to c/f a blank river here if he shoves?

Next time don't table your cards immediately. He was last aggressor and needs to show first and in this particular hand that info is too valuable to pass up.

If I had JJ, 22, 88, I would have played the hand the same way he did. I like the min-raise on the turn because its just squeezing more value (obviously he knows you have something since you've led out on both the flop and turn).

I don't think he was bluffing contrary to what the other players said because, if he was trying to float/bluff, his raise should have been at least $100 and not the min-raise that he pulled.

Good job winning the hand!

+1

Most important lesson I've learned this year!

This

I've also made this mistake before when I win a big pot with the nuts as I don't like to be labeled a slow roller.

But making him show would be pure gold.

Agree with call/re-evalue on turn raise. Given player description, I think that there is a good chance he is doing this with AJ, agree that his range is AJ, T9, 22, 88, JJ. Slight chance his range includes AA,KK, but unlikely as I don't see an agro player not 3-betting and not raising flop.

Granted his range isn't great for us, however, I think we are still ahead enough to call. Though folding here isn't too -EV. Great river card!

One question - what would have happened if the Q didn't hit the River and V shoved as expected? Would you have folded your big overpair after putting in half of expected stacks?

Any time you have a vill who goes out of his way to act in an uncharacteristic manner, watch out! He's the most aggro player, and yet, now, with a very dry flop, he's playing passive. With jacks, I'd expect a flop raise to run off Big Slick. He might do that with pocket nines or tens. If he had second or third button, I'd expect a call all the way to the river followed by a river c/r or c/c (depending on how tightly he ranges Hero for an UTG open) if no overcards dropped.

That turn minraise looks like a value raise that's intended to not run Hero out of the pot. That looks a helluvalot like flopped Set. A call/evaluate looks borderline here, given the stacks.

Would have been nice to get a look, but I believe that's what he had. Excluding exactly ( 9, T ) the only hands he could play this way would be a set, or a slow played pair of aces or kings (discount this possibility since he called from MP, not the button). The river shove demonstrates he isn't afraid of that queen. Ooooopsie!

This is where I'm really unsure about the hand. I kind of think anything besides a Q on the river and I have to check/fold when he shoves, which is why I'm not sure the turn call is good to begin with since I expect him to shove basically any river here. Is this a moderately correct way to look at it?

And to everyone, yeah, I should have waited, but I find games move slowly enough that I try to table my hands immediately to avoid delays, but in this case obviously the info gained for next time would have been very valuable.