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High variance line or bad play? High variance line or bad play?

01-29-2018 , 05:38 PM
I'm playing my local cardroom's 2-3-5 game ($2 on the button, $3 for SB and $5 for BB). I didn't play a hand for 3 orbits. The table is mostly regulars with stacks over 1k with a mix of loose aggressive and passive players. I picked up J9s (hearts) on the cutoff with two limpers and I raise it to $25 with a stacksize of $465. The SB, BB and utg+1 call. Flop is K38 with two hearts, giving me a flush draw. I cbet near pot size of $100 and get a call from the utg+1 who seems to be a loose aggressive player who calls raises pre with pretty much anything. The turn is a Q of clubs and the villain checks to me. I could have checked the turn for a free card, but instead I shoved my remaining $340 for a pot sized semi bluff bet. Thoughts? Bad high variance play?
High variance line or bad play? Quote
01-29-2018 , 05:57 PM
You're gonna get called by a lot of Kx here. Depending on whether the K on the board is a heart, you also have to worry about pairs with a better flush draw calling. I would normally peel here and see the river.
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01-29-2018 , 06:00 PM
Especially since we have some looser players, not sure I like raising this hand pre-flop given we have <100 BBs...

I don't mind the flop bet when checked to as the PFR, and I like the turn shove given our tight image when we pick up additional equity with the gutterball. Would like to know more about how our villain plays post-flop, but I think most villains would fold hands as strong as KQ/KJ as your line looks a lot like AA/AK.
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01-29-2018 , 06:07 PM
Usually I check down turn/ river and get shown A8 and wish i’d Have jammed turn. As you say it’s high variance but anything below AK should be folding here so I guess it’s +EV.
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01-29-2018 , 06:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913
Especially since we have some looser players, not sure I like raising this hand pre-flop given we have <100 BBs...

I don't mind the flop bet when checked to as the PFR, and I like the turn shove given our tight image when we pick up additional equity with the gutterball. Would like to know more about how our villain plays post-flop, but I think most villains would fold hands as strong as KQ/KJ as your line looks a lot like AA/AK.
A few minor quibbles: our line of AA looks less credible if villain is holding Axhh. AK really takes a hit if the K on board is a heart. We are essentially repping AA/AK or a set, and that is a narrow range that can get narrowed further by blockers that are likely well within villain's range.

The flop cbet could have been smaller and accomplished the same thing and also made the hand more playable in later streets. There are very few scenarios where this bet gets 3 folds, so I think $75-$85 would be better.

I don't think it is a terrible play, but probably better off taking your equity to the river to see if you can hit the flush or the gutter.
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01-29-2018 , 06:22 PM
Pre is awful. Better hand selection and a bigger sizing in a 3 blind game. I would also recommend buying in the max or at least 1k if that's what everyone else is playing with.
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01-29-2018 , 06:25 PM
So you cleared out all the tighter regs on the flop who would trap with AK+ pre, and you only have to clear out the splashy station? It is certainly not a bad play, but not necessarily a good play.

pre - fine. you have position and in nitty games overaggression is a plus.

flop - superdry. perfect board to barrel away at. 100 might be a tad large. but anything less than 60 is wasting money. unless you decide to rep a set and bet out something silly like 35, inviting a CR, with the intention of shoving over it. but with 100 in dead money, a bet is manditory

turn - the interesting part. shoving is OK. it looks a little bluffy. betting 180 - 220 looks way stronger and does the exact same thing as shoving. the only difference is that a bet of 190 is much more likely to get KT to fold. and a shove is more likely to get a flush draw to fold.

but if you got snapped by the loose player at the table, that is just variance.
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01-29-2018 , 06:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrubyKGB
Pre is awful. Better hand selection and a bigger sizing in a 3 blind game. I would also recommend buying in the max or at least 1k if that's what everyone else is playing with.
so in other words don't ever make a move or use our table image to our advantage?

if we insist on playing our hands face up, why are we playing poker? now we are just playing bingo.
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01-29-2018 , 06:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PFunkaliscious
so in other words don't ever make a move or use our table image to our advantage?

if we insist on playing our hands face up, why are we playing poker? now we are just playing bingo.
5 players are invested in the hand and we make it $25 with j9 suited. That is the definition of bingo.
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01-29-2018 , 07:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrubyKGB
5 (4 players, 3 opponents) players are invested in the hand and we make it $25 with j9 suited. That is the definition of bingo.
yes. you are half right. If we decide not to bluff and just play our hand for value, we are playing bingo.

however, we are the only ones that know our cards are J9. No one else knows. And we bluff. Now we are playing poker.
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01-29-2018 , 07:34 PM
I think 100 is too much on the flop. It does set up a nice turnshove in terms of sizing, but I would think villain's calling range on the flop is very tight when you bet 100. So I'm very doubtful you have enough fold equity. Trying to bluff someone off a strong range is not a good idea as a rule.
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01-29-2018 , 07:35 PM
Playing short stacked multi-way at low stakes is generally not the spot to be bluffing in.
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01-29-2018 , 07:41 PM
You cant raise hands like J9s unless you play well post flop. This is not how you play well post flop (or preflop for that matter).

Raise more preflop. At least $35-$40. You want to get the flop heads up to be able to win the pot unimproved.

Once you get this many callers, just check the flop back and play for the flush. Way too often, someone is going to have a King or even a set. If you actually had the hand you are repping (AA, AK) you shouldn't be betting full pot on the flop and you shouldn't be all in on the turn very often.
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01-29-2018 , 08:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PFunkaliscious
yes. you are half right. If we decide not to bluff and just play our hand for value, we are playing bingo.

however, we are the only ones that know our cards are J9. No one else knows. And we bluff. Now we are playing poker.
Thanks for the incorrect edit bruh. Button, sb,bb 2 limpers + hero. Now go read super system and yell at kids for playing on your lawn.
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01-30-2018 , 12:53 AM
I don't mind pre... maybe size up a little but 25 isn't bad for this game

Flop I am not about that sizing at all. Go half pot. This leaves you flexibility on later streets to get out of this situation and a larger shove to increase fold equity if you do so later.

Turn given your sizing so large on the flop you cuffed yourself here to either jam or take the card. Given villain, you have zero fold equity. Probably taking the card with your tail between your legs realizing your flop sizing put you here isn't a bad idea. If every out in the deck is still live for you... you are at roughly 25% equity to suck out here...

Is it high variance sure. Is this the spot for it? Nope.
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01-30-2018 , 01:46 AM
Seems much closer to a bad play than high variance without a better understanding of villain. Pre-flop sizing looks a lot what you have, not that strong of a hand looking to juice the pot a little, plus you have less than 100bb.

It folds out nut flush draw most of the time but other than that, its hard to say.
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01-30-2018 , 03:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrubyKGB
Thanks for the incorrect edit bruh. Button, sb,bb 2 limpers + hero. Now go read super system and yell at kids for playing on your lawn.
the button did not play the hand. read OP again.
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01-30-2018 , 04:47 AM
PF, it's not that hard: five players are invested in the hand (namely three blinds and two limpers), and then we make it 25. Only after that does the button fold.
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01-30-2018 , 07:15 AM
thanks for all the feedback.
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