Live 1/2 - No real reads besides villian is a little loose preflop

MP Hero ($475) AJ
HJ Villian ($500)

Hero raises $12
Villian calls
BB calls

Flop: Q84

BB checks
Hero c-bets $20
Villian calls
BB folds

Turn: 8:

Hero bets $40
Villian raises to $85
Hero calls

River 10

Hero tanks and bets $100
Villian shoves

Hero?

I think we are deep enough to fold this, shallower like 400 or less you prolly gotta call though. I do like the river bet


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I don't like the turn barrel. The 8d is not a good card for us. Hard to get a Q to fold for $40, and an 8 certainly isn't folding, so we're basically targeting JJ-99 and sometimes those will hero call us.

I think river is a fold. We've put in half our stack almost and hard to imagine V is bluffing here. With the A, Q, J, T and 8 of clubs accounted for there aren't a lot of worse flush draws available.

Turn barrel is bad. Not a good card for our range, and a bad card to barrel at

Agree turn barrel is bad. Typical Vs at 1/2 can have tons of QX and 8X here and are continuing all for $40 like MIB211 says.

So turn cbet has basically zero FE. You are therefore entirely reliant on hitting an Ace or flush to beat QX and 8X respectively. Trouble is you won't know when V has a boat on river since many Vs will think trips is the nuts and go crazy with it as well as trying to gii with boats. Thus you're liable to make calling and folding errors on river when you bet turn and your calling errors on turn are going to be larger vs a x/r than when you x/c turn.

I also subscribe to the old fashioned view that if we're paying to draw then some of our outs have to be to the nuts so I don't draw at straights on 3 flushes or to flushes on paired boards.

V is definately repping an 8. But does he have a boat? The problem with this hand is since V has a wide calling range pre, we can't just range him on small pocket pairs and assume that he hit a set on the flop. Chances are that he has just 8x and not a boat on the turn.

but did he boat on the river?

you are almost getting 4:1 a on call to win 960, so no fault on calling, but I like a fold better. Shoving over the top of you is just too spazzy for any random LL player.

Yes, I'm most afraid of T8 here but expect some fishy villains can raise river allin with A8.

I would not have bet the turn after the board paired, I would have checked and evaluated whatever V decided to do.

as played,

having no info on V makes this a tougher decision. If you don't think he has a boat, then you are getting something like 5-1 to call. However, if he does, have the boat, hitting your flush on the river is going to be a disaster for you. I do not care for being OOP and facing agression from an unknown. I do not like building huge pots when I may very well be behind and even if I hit the flush I could still lose. So, at the risk of getting torched from everyone, I could find a fold here easily.

as played:
If my math is correct, the pot is $604 and you have $258 left. You built a huge pot when you were possibly behind as early as the turn. Really depends on your reads of V. Does he have the boat or is he going nuts over three 8s. Seems to me if you came this far, you would have to make the call, which is exactly why I would have slowed way down on the turn to stay out of these type of situations

Age/race/attire/mannerism considerations might sway me to calling

It's definitely a call if villain seems recreational

Mid thirties wg. He was discussing his thoughts on other local poker rooms with a couple players at the table in a intelligible manner. He was drinking a beer. He said "either way I'll show you, it's your call" as I was tanking. He said the exact statement earlier when he shoved over a c-betted flop of 662. He showed QQ that hand. His opponents stack was $120 dollars with with preflop pot of $30 plus his opponents bet of $15. He seemed mostly rational in his decision making but I did not put him on being a solid, thinking player. He did seem to have put in some volume based on the way he moved his chips around, looked at cards etc.

Thanks for your breakdowns so far. I plan to post the results later today.

When you bet river so small here you need to fold to a shove. Alternatively you could check or just open shove yourself on the river. The only reason to bet small is because you don't think he will call off a shove with a naked 8. If that is true he absolutely isn't shoving with a naked 8.

+1 bad turn card to bet.

Tc helps us to fold as we also have Jc he definitely never has flush here

AP fold river might not be inappropriate for 200bb jams Unless Vilain is spewy

Thanks everyone. Looks like I played the turn incorrectly. Noted and I will adjust my play here. Looks like most people think its a fold. I found a fold and I am pretty happen with that decision. I was having a very difficult time putting him on any bluffing hands that he raises turn and shoves river. Also, I didn't think he was crazy enough to shove with a naked 8 or a non nutted flush for value.

RESULT: V showed KJo no clubs. Pure air.

Don't like your turn bet sizing. Bet bigger or check. As played call river, he's basically repping 44 and 8T only, seems unlikely.

my mind is blown here, i was leaning fold and after what villain says i would have folded even faster.

+1

I think he's repping 8T exclusively. If we follow the logic that he raised 8x for value OTT then it stands to reason he would have raised Q8 or 44 on the flop. Since he can have dozens of 8x combos of which you beat most of them river becomes a call.

I can't imagine him shoving any non boated 8s for value. He's essentially turning them into bluffs. He just calls.

He has dozens of 8 combos on the turn but he shouldn't be shoving those on the river unless he really doesn't understand hand strengths or he believes you don't.

Bet bigger flop. c/c turn, c/c or c/jam river.

We're talking about a run of the mill 1/2 villain here. Our hand looks like AQ-AA (up until the river) if he is even hand reading (which he's not). His line is consistent with 8x and your standard loose 1/2 villain is overvaluing trips all day here thinking it's the nuts. We lose to 6 combos of T8 and beat 24 combos of 86, 87 and 89 plus whatever else he is playing (J8, 85, A8, flushes, spazz factor).

You don't fold the top of your range to that narrow of a value range that villain is representing.