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Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river? Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river?

02-28-2020 , 11:02 AM
Hero (650): Hyper aggressive image in the room. Villain has seen made a lot of aggressive plays in the past.
Villain (950): Winning TAG player. He wins 80% the times he is in this poker room. Tends to slow play hands against me in not dangerous boards since he thinks I'm way too aggressive. But also many times he has tried to shut me out by shoving on the flop or turn when he thinks my range is not that strong and there is a possibility I can draw out on him. Even though he knows i'm very aggressive, he has made some good laydowns in the river in the past when I've fired the river against him (sometimes bluffing and sometimes with the nuts). Overall he is a dangerous oponent.

OTH:
Blinds 5-5. 7 handed
Hero has AQ is UTG and raises to 25. Villain to my left calls and 2 more players call.

Flop (110): KJ2
Hero bets out 65. Villain instantly calls

Turn (240): 8
Hero bets out 150. Villain thinks for a moment and calls

River (540): 3

Ok so I missed all my draws, there is 540 in the pot and I have 410 behind. Should I shove this river?

Villain usually tries to shut me off on the flop or turn when he is holding 2 pair, set or a strong draw. At this point I'm putting him on AK, KQ, KT some type of straight draw or a missed flush draw. Can we shove this river profitably and spect him to fold enough % of time to make this play profitable?
Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river? Quote
02-28-2020 , 12:02 PM
Yeah I would, you don't want to lose to something stupid like 98
Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river? Quote
02-28-2020 , 12:08 PM
c/f as played

turn is interesting. Checking has merit but feels more tempting to blast >300ish & calloff if needbe w/your eff stacksize. 150 isn’t likely to accomplish much, him having peeled you otf in a 4way
Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river? Quote
02-28-2020 , 12:13 PM
Its bad you hold AQdd as you are blocking his non made hands, including Q10. we do block KQ and AK although not really as he is flatting in a position i absolutely wouldnt be doing that in. i think vs villain described its fairly clear -EV jam.

98dd isnt a hand that he is showing up often enough with to justify said action.

i rather barrel off with pocket 66's here than AQdd
Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river? Quote
02-28-2020 , 12:35 PM
Flop is fine, I would overbet turn. c/f river AP. You have WAY too many bluffs here and not a lot of value that goes 3 barrels (KK, JJ, KJs and 88...that's only 11 combos if you're even raising KJ UTG)
Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river? Quote
02-28-2020 , 12:49 PM
I can go either way. I think betting has lots of FE, but with your image, it's going to be tough for him to fold w/ a K. He might fold everything worse than a K. J is debatable, though.

I'd need a read at the table, but I think shoving river is fine.
Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river? Quote
02-28-2020 , 01:54 PM
Yeah I get the thing about blockers, but in this spot that's not my main driver for my decision.

For me it's:

1. We have the nut advantage as we have AA, KK, AK, JJ, KJs. Villain might have JJ at some non 100% frequency and KJ.

2. When he just calls the flop and turn he basically never has a set or 2 Pair.
He's capped at hands like QK(which we block) and KT. When this is the top of villain's range I'm inclined to empty the clip when I have plenty of value.
I don't think I really have too many bluffs here. Vs some villains I would check to call a shove as well.
Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river? Quote
02-28-2020 , 02:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by luz4ggro
Tends to slow play hands against me in not dangerous boards since he thinks I'm way too aggressive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
2. When he just calls the flop and turn he basically never has a set or 2 Pair. When this is the top of villain's range I'm inclined to empty the clip when I have plenty of value. I don't think I really have too many bluffs here.
We have at most 11 combos of value (as I listed above) and I think it's easy to find many more bluffs (diamond combos and/or straight draw combos can get us to probably 20).

Also the bolded would suggest that Vs range is not capped at all.
Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river? Quote
02-28-2020 , 02:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fro_dude
We have at most 11 combos of value (as I listed above) and I think it's easy to find many more bluffs (diamond combos and/or straight draw combos can get us to probably 20).

Also the bolded would suggest that Vs range is not capped at all.
So KJx two tone is a not dangerous board? I mean I guess. Don't bluff then.
Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river? Quote
02-28-2020 , 02:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
So KJx two tone is a not dangerous board? I mean I guess. Don't bluff then.
By the river when no straight, no flush and no realistic 2-pair combos (other than KJ) came in = not very dangerous at all. Against a V who has shown an ability to be uncapped in situations in order to trap hero...I'm not bombing this river.

Readless, the argument is stronger for bluffing river, but with live reads as OP felt were strong enough to include in post, I don't think it's the best line.
Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river? Quote
02-28-2020 , 03:58 PM
Well we're going to give the V over 2-1 to call us down. But I think we gotta bet bc we have no sdv against the vast majority of hands he has by the river and a lot of his range is vulnerable to a value bet.

With a monster - which is what we're repping - we 'd make a less polarized river bet targeting his Jx and weak kings for value. So that's what I recommend - maybe 200 on the river. I don't think he's folding his Kx even if we jam but a value bet should be enough to frighten his Jdxd and 8dxd.

V may well have turned more equity and considered a raise - he'd do this with the remaining J8s and his Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, Td8d. I think 200 is enough to fold out his Jx/8x combos (and his AQ) while saving us 210 when he has Kx or better.
Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river? Quote
02-28-2020 , 04:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fro_dude
By the river when no straight, no flush and no realistic 2-pair combos (other than KJ) came in = not very dangerous at all. Against a V who has shown an ability to be uncapped in situations in order to trap hero...I'm not bombing this river.

Readless, the argument is stronger for bluffing river, but with live reads as OP felt were strong enough to include in post, I don't think it's the best line.
I'm talking about flatting the flop and turn....
Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river? Quote
02-28-2020 , 04:50 PM
From reading this comments, I think the shove will not be that profitable since he may find a lot of calls with Kx since there are so many missed combos. Do you think it would be a good idea to try a check raise bluff on the turn? He may check back his draws but he is 100% betting his Kx,Jx hands and might fold to the representation of a stronger hand
Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river? Quote
06-26-2022 , 12:02 PM
What do you think about trying to check raise this turn?
Missed monster draw. Should I bluff this river? Quote

      
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