5/10 NL Live game, full ring.

V1 seems like a solid reg, but I have no real history to confirm other than last 30 mins he has folded a lot pre. Pretty solid preflop.

UTG - short stack old guy - $500
V1 - 1500
Hero - 2800

Utg limps. I raise 40 w Ah 3h from UTG+2, V1 calls from BB. Only V1 calls, heads up.

Flop: 9h 8h 2s

I bet 60. V1 check raises to $160. I call.

Turn: 4c.

V1 bets 180. I call.

River: Kd

V1 checks.

Hero - bet $400 or check behind and give up.... Can we reasonably rep a K here ?

Thanks !

pre is interesting (old man's line is pretty )

I don't mind making it 260 on the flop at all.

As played, check back and win sometimes but usually lose to KJhh.

Edit: no, you can't rep a K lol.

Ask yourself this.

What do you want him to fold if / when you bluff?

Really think about it.

Take the check, beat some 67, JT, QJ, and other FD's and lose to Kxhh.

Could be getting tricky with 98.

Either way, I'm not betting river. I might try running something on a Qx though, if facing a check.

Ok, not just rep a K here, but can we rep any other 1 pair hand ?

Can villain's range make a river call with A high? or 9x 8x 10s etc ?

Just curious...i'm not suggesting that a river bet here is best.

Yeah, you can rep pp's

He shouldn't be taking his line with 9x though, and people that do take it don't check to fold that river.

A couple things:

1) If you don't know what parts of your range can credibly rep a K here then you're probably not ready for 5/10.

2) His range should be nice and capped to QQ-TT which means you can theoretically value shove AA, KK, KQhh-KThh and any slowplayed sets which works out to be around 12-14 combos. To make him indifferent to bluff catching with his capped range we need around 37% of our range to be value. So bluff combos we can have is 13/.37 = 35 - 13 = 22 bluff combos. So basically we can shove all of our missed draws and make him indifferent to bluff catching his QQ-TT hands.

I agree, he's not c/f the river to a bet. Looks like V has TT.

After that small bet on the turn its possible he's setting his own price with JT tho.

I would have stuffed the turn/raised the flop. At this point its a check back.

Agree that villain is checking river to call.

Am I the only one that kind of wants to bomb raise that turn sizing? In game I probably convince myself it's spew though, and play the hand same as hero, with a river check. If I do raise turn to 520 or something, I'm shoving river.

Most of you are opting to take a more aggressive line than I did, ie. raising flop and turn....I'm assuming this means you want to raise/call a shove?

What's our equity vs his range on the flop?

As for the turn, what's our equity with 1 card left ?

I can't see the V having more than 1 pair here, especially after that turn bet. Would he bet that much with a set or 98 and then check the river, unlikely.

True the hand was made up on the turn, nothing wrong with calling that good price to draw on the turn. Jamming would have been boss tho.

I'm pretty sure you need more value hands than bluffs wrt the concept your using here

Lol I know I meant to come back in here and say I made a mistake with the math but forgot about it.

It's supposed to be 13/.63 = 20 - 13 = 7 bluff combos. 65hh and 76s would be the best bluffing candidates if hero has them, so that's 5. After that the next best candidates would be JTs, QJhh, QThh, and A3hh. I want to say QJhh and QThh are the best out of those since they block the KQhh/KJhh/KThh hands that V is check calling with while also getting Axhh to fold. So A3hh barely misses the cut

This is a very easy check. If he somehow has 9x, TT or whatever he's not folding, we win some of the time when we check, and we aren't nearly close enough to the bottom of our range.

This is under the assumption that villain will call 1-a to make him indifferent. In my experience in these games this certainly isn't the case. (They call way too often) so the exploitative adjustment is pretty easy to figure out

Even vs. a shove? Ime ppl tend to overfold a bit facing overbets in live just because it's so rare to see someone do it and ppl are generally playing underrolled and don't want to make a high variance hero call with 1 pair. Either way I think a shove is clearly the best bet sizing to use here with his range capped, it's just a matter of figuring out the best bluff to value ratio for it.

daniel, you are trying too hard to win every hand. Realize the difference here between 67 and A3. We are actually winning a ton here. The few times he has 4xhh here w/e next hand. The ton of times he has 22/99/88/Kxhh we burn money (Id be checking all of those hands OTR as villain)

Putting villain on value hands that he could have that he might fold is definitely a leak, one that I used to do a lot. If he somehow did show up with 9x/TT-QQ here note him in your little black book and move on.

I don't know where you get that I'm trying too hard to win every hand. It's just like any other hand to me. Try to put V on a range based on info given and action so far, then figure out the range of hands I want to value bet vs. that range and with what sizing, then figure out what hands I want to include as bluffs as part of that range. I read V's range as capped when he takes this line. I don't expect every V to be capped here, but I do expect the vast majority to be, and that's all that really matters here.

The only way we're winning a ton here is if V's nuts shrink on the river with missed draws. I would expect A3 high to win maybe 5-10% of the time, which isn't bad and certainly better than nothing, but I wouldn't call it "a ton".

I don't see what 4xhh hands he has here if the read is right that he's a solid reg that folds a lot pre.

A solid reg is not x/r one pair hands in this hand, that is the point. And he is not checking river to x/f a value hand.

When you bet here with such a huge sdv hand it does indeed demonstrate that you are simply trying to win hands and not actually think about his line/range vs our line/range and that we beat just about everything except for the stuff he is never folding.

The 4xhh is the one hand that I can imagine we might be able to fold out, that is currently beating us. As you yourself pointed out, he likely only has one combo, 54, and that still may have bluffed river.

Putting villain on TT here is just bizarre and wishful thinking. Thinking he'll fold it is even more wishful thinking.

As for a value range otr, I actually probably x/back AKhh. There is no real value to be had from his range, unless he is indescribably bad.

We can disagree on V's likely river range, which is fine, but to say it's wishful thinking for him to fold TT on the river but at the same time can't value bet AhKh is contradictory.

It really depends on how cold the water is.

Don't bluff here. And V doesn't seem like a solid reg, much more likely to be a donk given HH.

what's our plan for the rest of the hand if he flats?
bet/jam?