Not my hand just FYI.

1/2nl Effective stacks are 300. Hero has 77 in the BB.

3 limps
Hero(BB) makes it 12
2 callers

Pot 39$

764 all parsley

Hero leads 20$ and V snap raises to 60$ and it folds back to hero

40$ to call, but then Villain tables his hand on purpose showing K3c

That's a King high flush, with a straight flush redraw.

So ****ing weird.

We have 33% equity.
We have to call 40 to win 119.
That's getting 3:1 to see the turn, then likely face another bet unless he's spooked by our flop call.

Is it worth trying to peel a boat on the turn? Will V even be dumb enough to get stacks in on a paired board when we know his hand and show aggression?

Easy fold. We don't have anything like the odds required for the immediate draw and there's not any implied EV. When we draw against villain after he tables a flush, we must have a chance of beating that, therefore when the board pairs even a dumb villain will put 2 and 2 together.

you know, responding to chrisVs point, if V can put 2 and 2 together and fold when the board pairs, you could also ship on any non A/5 of clubs repping the nut flush and bluff him off his holdings. youd be looking at 14/45 to win 119 for 40, and you gain EV whenever he calls against your range.

Also, your EV goes up if you can convince him you might have the nut flush OTF. Im no expert on giving off reverse tells, but im sure there is something you can say to freeze him on his turn bet when you whiff on everything, but that would be for some other forum to tell you.

Good point, hadn't considered that.

Seems like a call. I wouldn’t try to bluff him off the second nuts of the turn bricks. He showed his hand because he thinks he’s entitled to the pot and doesn’t want you to suck out.

I wouldn’t trust someone dumb enough to show their cards with money behind to fold bad turns and rivers. It doesn’t matter though. Without doing the math I think this is probably a fine call since we can bluff another club.

Bigger pre. Standard raise +1BB per limper, + one for being OOP, imo.

AP, def bigger OTF. That board is so wet. Charge the draws.

AP, that's never a call. Either fold or jam if you think V has any chance of folding. Don't need much FE when you have 33% equity to fall back on. There's $119 in the pot, and we're considering throwing another $268 in to what will be a $625 pot if he calls. We need the equivalent of 43% equity for that to be profitable, or 10% to make up with FE.

Given how much V doesn't want to be sucked out on, I think there may be a chance for enough FE. Of course, if we'd better better sizes on our last two actions, this would be an easier decision.

Shove

fold or shove is the exact opposite of my reaction to being shown cards.

In most card rooms if a player exposes there hand they are not allowed to make any further actions except to call. If this is the case you have a clear call here.

You seem quite confident, but I doubt you have done the math because it's a lot of work and you would have shown us.

You are making the mistake of considering only our hand, not our range. We have the power to threaten villain on club turns and on board pairing turns, allowing us to win greater than our share of equity.

It may still not be enough, but it's not reasonable for you to be so confident that we can't call when you haven't done the math. I'd be happy to do it for the practice.

I don't think this sounds very confident.
You are correct. I didn't do the math because it is a ton of work and estimating his fold percentage is a huge shot in the dark anyway, especially without knowing the V. That's why I said "I think there may be a chance," not "surely we have enough FE to make up for our equity deficit when called."

You are right that we could call to try to leverage FE OTT, though. What I meant there, is, "it's not a call for expressed/implied odds." We need FE. Figuring whether shoving now or shoving on certain turns is better (and whether either or both are +EV) is a crap ton of work and will require quite a few assumptions, but it's a worthwhile exercise if you're willing to crunch it.

Sorry, I was referring to your statement that this is “never” a call, but quoted your whole post so that wasn’t clear.

I agree that we can’t call for the value of our hand only. What I can attempt to do is prove that we can profitably call with a range of Acx/sets. I don’t think the optimal bet size on the turn is a shove. Finding the optimal bet size which maximizes our ability to bluff will be part of the work.

Deciding whether or not shoving on the flop is profitable is mostly guesswork. We could find out if this is what we should do with our nut flushes and figure out how many bluffs we should balance those with, but IMO he’s not laying the hand down on the flop and we should be shoving for value only.