V is a relative unknown. Late 20's/early 30's Caucasian male. No hoodie, no earmuffs, no backpack. I just sat down like an orbit ago.

5/5 $670 eff.

Hero opens QQ $20 UTG. V calls in CO, BTN calls, Blinds call.

$94

535

x,x, Hero $55, V $140, folds back to Hero...


I feel like I always do something different here. Sometimes I raise, sometimes I fold, sometimes I just call. I'd prefer having a standard plan & would like to hear how you'd plan the hand going forward.

Anyways... this time I decided just to call & go into c/c bluffcatch mode vs FD and lower pairs.

$374

T

x, $200, c

$773

7

x, AI $310, Hero..? Continue w/ plan or abort?

A loose villain has 56s and A5s and maybe 45s here, for 6 combos that beat us, plus 33. Possible TT but it is unlikely that it raises the flop. Lets say 10 combos that beat us. Hands we beat on the flop are 66-JJ, A2/4/6+dd, 67dd+,J9dd+ which is 10 non nut flush draws, 8-9 nut flush draws, and 36 lower pairs (I'd argue that a lot of lower pairs aren't raising, so we can drop this to 12 lower pairs, mostly 99-JJ).

When you bet/call flop, your hand is either an overpair, maaaaybe AK, or diamonds. Those are hands that most people are not folding on this run out, especially to these sizes. You can definitely fold river. Turn I think is a call getting decent odds and not expecting villain to fire river super light, and the chances villain has fd/JJ/QTdd enough, and getting 3:1

It might be weak, but vs. this many player, I think I check flop. So many people play A5s, 56, 57, even 54. Plus, many players will check/raise here with a flush draw. Very unfortunate that we don't know this player, but I'd probably stick to my plan and call -- especially once I call the turn.

Edit: In game, I probably just fold turn.

I also check flop at some frequency unless table is super passive and face up overall in which case i bet smaller.

When there's lots of people in a hand, my baseline assumption is that people aren't bluffing the first time they raise. QQ just isn't hand I want to put 120 BB in by calling.

Thing is that if this guy likes bluffing people off their hands, he's going to be doing this all the time. You can catch him on the next time he does it to you.

Yup, challenging for sure.

Here, I’d bet more OTF, at least $65-$75, since it is a very inelastic spot. Absent specific reads or history, I’d fold to resistance for a couple of reasons:
1) ES/Pre sizing = ~34-1, plus additional callers. Thus, 5X combos r clearly in opponents range.
2) Multi-way, thus it is less likely u would b leading into 4 players with a big ace hand, unless specifically AdXd. Some players will do this with a hand like 88 when HU as they want to capture their equity, fearing a high-ranking turn card.

Disclaimer: Itm, I might stubbornly call flop raise, but done after that.

Tough spot. Pretty sure turn is either a jam or fold, I would assume you aren't ahead here anywhere near often enough though so I'd almost always be folding

I dont think i understand calling turn to fold river here as that river.

I dont know if you have enough info on villain to determine if they like running crazy bluffs. Personally, I dont think i can fold QQ on that flop but I agree w/ Venice about a baseline assumption here - maybe I should be a little less stationy in these situations.

If i'm calling the turn however, I'm making the crying call on the river - looking at Ranma's ranges and adjusting them slightly, the 7 doesnt shift it that far into favor of folding:

A5 + 56s = 10 combos
TT = 3
77 = 3
If we give him 77, then i have to give 88-JJ otherwise 99-JJ is what we use and the 7 didnt help anything except for 46s w/ is 4

so 17 hands we're dead to if we dont count 77 vs
10 Adxd (2,4,6,7,8,9,T,J,Q,K)
Some non nut dd
12 combos of pairs 99/JJ
For the non nut dd lets be frugal and assume he doesnt 3 barrel them all so say 3 or 4 of the 7 from 67dd+

Math says call no? 17:35 w/ 310 to win 1083?

I think its worth some merit that opponent isnt 3barrelling the entire above range so its probably a little closer but 310 is about 30% of the pot so we need to be good a little <20% on above combos so if we tighten it up i think we have some room.

I think once you call turn you have to call river. Folding flop against an unknown and adjusting later if necessary is probably better though.

Thanks for the input everyone.

Just to play devil's advocate on the "if we call turn, we gotta call river" perspective, which I myself was partial to during this hand; on each street our villain gives us info. Unless V spikes a set, the cards don't change much, but his actions do help us narrow down a range. Us c/c looks pretty strong and may put the fear of a river call into any bluff. What might look polarized can actually be just nutted. I think the turn contains enough double barrel bluffs to call, but as mentioned, those sometimes do tuck tail & check back OTR.

All of this is why I, and I assume some others, said you should probably just fold flop. This is almost certainly exploitable, but I just can't imagine a 5/5 player that can do it especially against someone THEY have no read on. Also people don't tend to sit down at a new table and run a big bluff right out of the gates.

But as played you have no read, and most people that can bluff turn at least sometimes bluff river. You're getting a good price on the river and it ran out about as good as it could have. There are just so many possible draws and everything but 64 missed.

Honestly, it looks like you're beat, but you're getting a good price and if you're going to call down this is close to the best possible hand to do it with. Like AdAx would be a much easier fold. So just playing the river in a vacuum and considering the price on the river QQ+ no diamond seems like the right hands to get stubborn with. Maybe that's just rationalizing a sunk cost idk.

If you are going to call flop and call off river, you should just shove turn to charge V's combo draws the max. You're going to get stacked by 5x on the river by calling it off anyway. I'd either check the flop or bet smaller, $35-40. Part of the problem with the larger sizing is that you are sort of announcing you have an overpair. If you had bet less, V may think you have nothing and call with 5x to let you keep betting instead of raising you.

V's are certainly capable of showing up with something dumb here, can't find a fold on this runout.

no, this allows V to play perfectly since he realizes he has no FE w/ all his trash

Snap it off

I'm not sure I totally agree with this. I guess it depends on whether we think V is doing this with total air more often than he's doing it with draws, and if he's usually jamming his missed draws OTR. Against some types of Vs I agree with you in the sense that we should keep Vs range wide and to not push his bluffs out of the hand. In this particular instance I don't think we have enough info to make that read one way or the other.

Easy call

1) Here is your Golden standard plan you looking for. This is the way I do it.
With that effective stacks and with your QQ I would have open from UTG for much more instead of 4bb. I would have 2! for $50 (10bb) to make sure I can narrow the range of callers or the 3!-ers. With your opening of 4bb lots of villains could call and you don't know where you stand OTF because you have to take into consideration too long range of calling for cheap rage. So, your head and brain has got too much work to do and I'm sorry to say but you'll be in error much of the time. That's why we raise 10bb or even more, not because of our hand but because we want to know his range. Actually you make the same 2! pre with A5s or T9s or 77 from UTG. We use a wide range for ourselves and try to narrow his range to read him better. That's the reason.

2) Now, that flop is the heaven territory of bluffing. The villain could not possibly have called your preflop raise with a 5 in his hand. That's why I suggest raise preflop much much more. As I said make it 10-12bb. I am not just suggesting but I'm ordering to you to execute this task . -- Are you with me? ... haha...

3) In this situation you find yourself, I would raise him like $280-300 to go and I will cal a shove. You worry only of AA or KK and that is out of this world because he didn't 3! preflop. He just call your 2!

For all the points I made above it is important for you to raise much more to be able to read his range. Don't worry about the amount of dollars worth in real world at the grocery store. I know some dudes always compare $50 chips with what they can buy outside of casino. But you cannot play like that. No!.. you cant! . If you make it $20 pre you have some reading problems with his calling range. It could be wide. You don't know. But at $50+ it gets narrower and you deal with fewer calling or raising hands possible. That why we raise heavier pre.

In this situation, I suspect he is either bluffing trying to scare you on that paired board or he's got on overpair to the flop. Any pair over the top flop card or possibly a FD. For almost sure he's got no FH or Trips. Most likely 66 to JJ. So, he's drawing almost dead.
I may be wrong because I don't have the help of your heavy preflop raise. I need that.

I feel like leaning towards a call is better in this spot when there's really only one draw. If the flop was like 667dd maybe jamming is better because the V can both have even more draws and also rep. draws that they don't have on the river. As it is we're basically assuming V has a flush draw or trips+ and can just fold any river diamond and bait a bluff on non-diamonds.

In a 6-way pot, assuming Villain's hands are random, 38.4% of the time one of the Villains have trips.

You're only slightly ahead of draws and you're crushed by trips. If the Villain's range is 80% nut flush draw, and 20% trips you're behind.

But you can't assume that Villain's hands are random. The raise from UTG should weed out some of the sub par hands, which eliminates pretty much everything with a 5 in it. Possibly 55, though quads are just straight unlikely. A5 suited maybe, but that's still a really loose call. If he's beat, I think it's probably 33. If hero has a read that villain is calling preflop raises with a really wide range, then it becomes an easier fold here, but absent that, I think a missed draw is most likely. It's a really tough spot, but I think a call is the right choice.

Pretty much spot on

Correct answer to call or fold river depends how many times you think this V bluffing like this with missed flush draw against the amount of times he just has a 5.

When he raises you on the flop V only has flush draws or 5's. 99-JJ are just calling on flop. Turn is marginal and close to call or fold. Shoving on flop also has some merits. Folding on flop isn't terrible either. If you decide V has AK diamonds he still has great equity vs you and the times he does have a 5 your just drawing dead.

With that being said I think fold on flop is a little weak so I agree with Ranma, in this exact hand call flop call turn(close) fold river. The reason why I say turn is close to call or fold is because if you call on turn and river is a blank, if you decided you were ahead on turn you are still ahead on river. Just food for thought

I don't think people are bluffing often enough on this board but against someone who you identify as a thinking player you have to be willing to bluffcatch with QQ here. I'm not sure if you have any 5's in your range UTG so your plan can't be to fold your entire range here vs a raise.

There are a lot of players though where I feel comfortable making an exploitable fold on the flop or turn.

As played, call river. It's high variance but you don't have to be right very often for this to be profitable.

Listen to WJ and not Outdonked, please don't change your open size based on hand strength and of course you aren't going to have a standard line in a non-standard spot, it all becomes villain based.

Maybe in six-way pots people aren't folding as much as you think is proper? Maybe the Villain's don't raise raise draws 100% of the time? The point is that the 5 Villains don't need trips very often for folding the flop to be correct.