Villain ($300ish): Seems to call and c/c flop wide, and play more honestly on later streets. Seen him limp/call wide, and raise a standard opening range for low stakes players, if not a little tighter. Hero have not played with him before, but he appears to be on the side of having looser calling ranges PF and flop, and tighter on the turn/river.

Hero (covers): has a clean image, not out of line, C-betting most flops after I am the PFR and DB higher than 50% of the time. Thus far I've been taking down pots in this fashion, and have only shown down AK on AT4xx board where I bet 3streets for value and held.

Hand: 1 limps, Villain raises to $10 from CO, hero 3! to $40, limper folds, CO calls.

Flop ($80): AKT
hero leads $50, call

Turn ($180): J
Hero checks. SPR is a little over 1 and tbh, I think the J kind of got me MUBSY. Not sure what's best in this spot. Villain checks behind

River($180): 3
Hero checks..... villain ships, hero folds.


Thoughts on a (better) turn/river line?

Awkward stack sizes I'd probably just shove the turn.

Yeah, with the stack sizes as they are, if you're not open shoving the turn then your only other option is to check/fold. If it checks through to the river, then you're praying for a miracle of the board pairing. If it pairs, then open shove; if it runs out any other way, then you're again check/folding unless they bet something stupidly small like $10.

The flush isn't too huge of a concern since they aren't likely to call the 3bet with KdXd (and QdX has you crushed no matter what, anyway). They could certainly have a lower set of their own or possibly 2 pair from AK or maybe KJ, but they could also easily have QQ, AQ, KQ, or possibly QJs if they are REALLY attached to draws.

Basically that board turns your top set into a bluffcatcher, so treat it as such. If you've got the roll and the balls then you should shove the turn in hopes that they don't have a queen, but recognize that the shove is actually more bluff than value - if they call, you're terrified, not thrilled.

I call and it's not even close.

What did V call with that completes the flush? The Ad is on the flop so AKd isn't there. What flush raises/called pre? KQd? KJd? I don't see it.

You checked the scare card and he bet. So call and make money.

If villain plays more honestly on later streets like you say, then you have to give him credit for at least a Q, if not the flush.

Meh, probably shoving turn. I don't know what V has, but he shouldn't have too many hands that contain a queen. There are only 4 combos of AQ in the deck.

As played, I'm calling. V's line looks FOS to me.

betting flop for $60 instead of $50 solves all these awkward stack problems. And we should be betting more because of the texture anyway.

Then shove the turn and print the moneyz.

AP, call river.

Based on your reads on V, this is not turrible at all. He is "honest" and "tighter" on later streets. So just trust your reads. As described, when he ships on this river, he thinks he has the best hand, and probably does.

Shoving on the turn is NOT "actually more bluff than value" as K.Tanner replies, as you can never expect a better hand to fold there. Double check definition of bluff: to get better to fold. Not the case here.

Bet near to pot on flop and shove the turn.

As played I'm shoving turn anyway because lol SPR and KK TT AK AJs ATs KJs all call the shove as well as QQ and AQ KQ. QQ probably folds flop some of the time and AQ is 4 combos. The one im afraid of is KQ but he probably doesn't have all offsuit combos. Even if he has a straight you are going to draw out on him 20% of the time. How can you not shove here?

As played to river I'm kind of happy to fold since any Q and any dd beats you.

I´m fine with heros betsizing otf, I think it´s a bit results oriented to advice to bet more just to make the hand easier to play.
after all, we have top set, and we don´t really want villain to fold all his mediocre hands which are basically drawing dead otf, which make up a pretty big part of his range imo, and only continue with flush draws and the occasional set over set/two pair cooler.

I´m fine with betting less with this spr and inviting him into the pot.

ott, same. I wouldn´t shove, why would we do that, to draw out all hands we have dead and gii badly vs str8s? we obv won´t get better to fold, and we want him to call us with worse, I´d rather bet smth like 1/3 pot to give the illusion of FE and obv call a shove.

as played, turn check is a mistake, we got a very ugly runout, good river fold imo.

It is absolutely correct to size bets properly in order to plan future streets.

Plus, we should be betting nearly pot on this flop given how wet it is. V's calling range is nearly inelastic. If he's calling $40, he's calling $50.

$300 effective stacks before hand starts. $40 each preflop. $80 pot, $260 stacks SPR is 3.25:1

Any J, Q or diamond wrecks our hand by freezing action or putting V ahead. That is 15 out of 47 cards in the deck so happens 30% of the time.

There are multiple hands and draws that V can call a pot sized bet with. (he is loose pre and on flop).

I see lots of reasons to pot the flop and not many legit reasons to go much smaller.

What do you expect to get called from that is worst than our hand?

Villain's possible range:
- KK, AK, AQs/AJs, TT, QJdd, KQs MAYBE KT? All of these hands except AQs/AJs/KQs are raising the flop, correct?
- QQ/JJ I think folds flop

Can you elaborate on why open shoving is better than making a small value bet if the board pairs? When villain checks back turn, his calling range shrinks significantly imo, so why open shove which results in him folding a bulk of his calling range that still exists.

In retrospect, betting 3! $50 pre is likely better, and c-betting $60-70 on the flop solves all of the problem. AP, I'd like to hear more about flop bet sizing.

ATs/KJs seems a bit wide for this villain to bet/call PF. KK, TT, AK in all likely hood raises flop.




Do you think a bigger PF raise is in order here next time around?


Yes, villain is loose PF, but one thing I should've mentioned in OP was that I don't know how loose he is in a 3! pot. Does this change your perception of villain and how this hand plays out.

If you don't know how he responds to 3betting before this hand it is probably because you haven't seen him get 3bet before this hand. That means he got 3bet once and called. It is a sample of 1 so not much to go on but we know he opens a normalish frequency for 1/2 and didnt fold to this 3bet. Alongside his tendency to l/c a lot preflop and play loose on the flop it suggests he calls 3bets fairly wide and continues flop in 3bet pots fairly wide.

I see a lot of loose Vs open/call most of their open ranges. Today I gii in a similar spot on a QJT board holding JJ after 3! a loose UTG opener. He gii on flop with QTs and turn/river brought no help for him.

Just because we have top set doesn't mean we need to size our bet smaller. Sometimes that's a good idea (TT on T72r flop, for instance) but like Swoly said, this flop smacks his call 3 bet range and what matters for bet sizing is how it affects our opponent's call flop range, not the absolute strength of our hand. I doubt he's calling $25 on the flop with JJ, 99, type hands, but I also doubt he's folding a hand like AJ for $60 once he calls the 40.

Just because you've seen him be a fairly tight opener, that doesn't necessarily mean AT, KT, AJ, KJ hands aren't in his range -- he can just be card dead. And I don't think the lack of a flop raise means he's extremely less likely to have 2p+ hands -- he can be slowplaying (or worried about AK if he has AT, KT). So I'd go ahead and shove turn. From a combo prospective, he shouldn't have many queens compared to the number of sets and 2 pair he can call with (and we still have substantial equity against Qx).

AP, when he shoves river, we can't just say "how can he have a flush here? what dd combos call the 3-bet?" A $200 river shove tells us a lot more about his hand than calling the 3bet pre. It requires a somewhat odd play for this to be a hand you beat. It's either a puke/fold or a puke/call, probably leaning toward fold as gross as that seems.

is this turn shove overbet for value or as a bluff?

Hero has the 2nd nuts -- how could it possibly be a bluff? (By the very definition of bluff.)

and that's my point.. if you're value-betting the 2nd nuts, i wonder if you risk folding out a lot of worse hands with an overbet on a 4 straight board by overbet shoving?

Yes, this was the first 3b that I had saw villain face, and call. However, I have a hard time buying your notion because he's fairly loose pre-flop/flop suggests he can be fairly wide in a 3b pot as well. PF/Flop the bets are small, so it's completly possible villain is willing to call smaller bets to try to connect his cards to the board. In general, I'd say it's fair to assume that if a villain is loose in a single raised pot, he's capable/might be loose in a 3b pot. However, some villain's are the complete opposite. They tighten up significantly when more money goes in. In addition, it's also possible he's a bit wider in this spot due to being IP. But, all of these are assumptions of course.




I agree that he's not calling $25 with JJ and will likley call upto pot with Ax. However, the reason, imo, we can/should size our c-bet smaller in this hand compared to TT on T72r is because a bulk of his opening range usually have an Ace in it, and since 3 aces are gone, that leaves his continuing range with AK/AQ/KK/TT? That's a small part of his continuing range along with QQ/JJ/KQ/KJ.


I don't think he was card dead given his propensity to voluntarily play as many hands as he did. Yes, he can likley open AT, KT, AJ, KJ, however, as I mentioned in my post above, does this mean he calls a 3b with that range as well? We don't know. My assumption is to believe he folds AT/KJ/KT and play AJs which further narrow's his range imo.

Qx is even a smaller part of his range (6 combos of Queens, 4 AQ, and 3 KQs) which is something tbh I didn't give much thoughts to while in the hand. As I mentioned in the OP, I think the J on the turn got me a bit mubsy and it's possible subconsioucly I had moved on with my hand unless the board paired.


Can you elaborate on what you mean by "A $200 river shove tells us a lot more about his hand than calling the 3bet pre"

An over bet shove in this spot polarizes our bet, and I think we get hero called maybe 5%? and We're shown a hand with a Q in it 90+% of the time.

that's what i think as well. so, its a pretty ****ty bluff and an even worse value bet.. right?

I just disagree that a shove on turn polarises you. The SPR is so low that both hero and villain are at risk of making very big folding errors on the turn or on the river. There are also still various FDs out there. This means hero has to bet something to avoid giving free card. However, low SPR means by the time H bets enough to avoid giving good drawing odds he cant really fold for the small bet left behind if river is a flush card. Thus hero may as well just put his stack in on turn and avoid an impossible decision on river.

V should recognise all of this and be prepared to stack off with a wider range than the nuts here. If he doesn't he's going to get run over. With that specific read I think you could bet small on turn to induce or get a call. Question is what do you do with a lol <<<1 SPR on river when flush card comes? Do you call the mini shove? Do you shove yourself? Surely you can't risk folding?

i agree with everything you're saying here.. except if you change "should" to "is likely to".. then we are in disagreement. it seems a lot of the comments in this forum seem to assume we are up against AEJones. my assumption is that an overbet shove will fold out the FD's and 2pairs (whether they should or not), and that a 1/2 pot to 2/3 pot bet has a much better chance of getting called.... hence it will be a value-bet.

disagree?

I would be surprised to see many V's in my game folding 2-pairs or pair+FD here with the pot so big and only slightly more than PSB left behind. In my game I'm gii 100bb deep against stuff like top pair no kicker though so maybe I'm just lucky to play such fish.

I agree the stack size is annoying on turn and it does make it hard to play well. I usually wouldn't get myself in this situation so i have to admit I'm not entirely clear what i do on turn.

I'm just trying to get my head around how different V's are going to react to the turn shove:

Nit - folds without nuts and shows set of kings because that what nits do.

Passive Fish - only registers his own hand so if it is 2-pair+ or FD he calls shove thinking "i has great hand! Yay!"

TAG or LAG: depends on ability and his read on hero but probably sigh calls all sets and AK at least.

Aggressive fish/maniac: Already shoved flop with wide range so turn never occurs like this.


So I think a 1/3 to 1/2 pot turn bet is going to be most use vs TAGs and LAGs rather than fish or nits. Trouble is: aren't most half thinking players going to interpret any bet from hero as pot committing and know the rest is going in on river? So don't you worry that they aren't calling any wider than vs shove unless they have a draw you give them the odds to try for?

all but the most special of fish can see when its a one liner to a straight on the board.. or a four flush on board... or a double paired/trips on board... this isn't a special skill set reserved for tag/lag players.