$1/2 nl. First hour at the table, won a few small pots WNSD so hero is unaware of any image he might have (male mid 20's). V is MAWG good ole southern boy. He had been raising light pre but playing post fairly tight.

OTTH

Folds to V($330) in mp2 who raises $12, HJ calls. Hero($300) on the bu w/AQ 3! to $40. Both players call (thoughts?)

Flop($122) : K92
checks to Hero who cbets $55 (thoughts?) V x/r to $150. Hero?

Before we get to the big decision, how was the hand played up to this point?
After the 3!, this is a board i should be c-betting w/decent equity, no? Wasn't expecting to get raised but now that i did, is this a "sigh, all in"?
Im guessing balance is key in these spots? Sometimes takings the high variance route, sometimes taking the lower variance route an c/back flop?

Pros/cons, thoughts/opinions are all greatly appreciated

Looks like a K, maybe AK, KQ. Not deep enough to flat and draw. Might have enough FE to shove but probably it's a lay down unless you're looking gamble. If you have an edge it's thin.

Plus if I'm betting flop it's probably more.

Agree with betting more on flop if betting. Might actually be a good flop to check back your whole range in position though.

I don't think you can flat here with $205 left. If you shove, you need to win 31% of the time to break even (a term which I am re-learning obv ) which seems reasonable. Who knows, if V has a hand like Kx, maybe your Ace is an out too but doubtful. I do not think you have a lot of FE here either.

Meh, I would flip a coin and either shove or fold.

Preflop: Solid hand to 3 bet with in position. I might size just a little bit bigger, say $45-$50. But that's just nitpicking, not necessarily a mistake or error on Hero's part.

On to the flop: I actually do no think betting this flop is the most profitable play. There are a lot of Kings in the range of both villains on the flop: AK, KQ, KJ, KT, K9s, etc. Even 99 is well in the range of both Villains, and it's possible that Villain only called with KK preflop "just to make sure an Ace didn't come". With only 1 over card in addition to the NFD, I think the more profitable play is to check back, and if they both check the turn then bet regardless of whether you hit or miss.

As played flop: Hero bets $55, leaving $205 behind, building pot to $177. Villain c/raises to $150, building pot to $327. Let's construct a range of what you are up against before determining which of your 3 options are best (hint, it's not calling).

Range of Villain if he flats your $55: all sets (KK, 99, 22) + AKso, KQso, KJso, KTso, K9s + JThh (Giving opponent both suited and non-suited AK - KT, but only suited K9)

Against the above range, you have 43.14% equity in the pot. Not a horrible spot, but far from a fist pump GII flop.

Range of Villain after x/raising to $150: Taking out the KT and KJ hands, as those most likely wont be raising to $150 here. KQ hands are debatable as well but I am leaving them in there. This reduces your equity to 37.32%. If you take out both KQs and KQo, the equity falls to 31.63%

Back to the hand: Pot is not $327, you have $205 behind facing a $95 raise (both $55's have been pulled into the pot). Calling is not a profitable play for obvious reasons. Only real options are Folding and Jamming. If you jam all in, you are putting $205 into the pot to win $642. You need to win this pot 31.9% of the time to break even and justify a call, and from the range constructions we've built above, we see you have 37% equity against JThh & KQ+, while you have 31.63% equity against JThh & AK+ . Depending on how tight the range is of your opponent, Jamming all in is either a 5% more profitable than folding play or about a .27% worse play than folding.

On to the decision: You are going to lose this hand a lot, you need to realize that. More than 50% of the time you are going to lose the hand. But if you think that your opponent is capable of playing this route with JThh & KQ+ the most profitable play is to get all the money in now. If you think his range is tighter then that, you are basically breaking even and it doesn't matter if you fold or if you go all in.

Please please please don't flat call the flop raise

I like it. Bet more on flop with the intent to gii. I'd gii now.

Raise more pre. Bet more on the flop and GII.

Preflop is good mostly just because villain has been raising really light and his sizing has really juiced the pot. Against standard MP opening/HJ flatting ranges and sizes, it's more of a spot where it's fine but not necessary and live poker is such that more EV usually comes from just flatting and letting the blinds donate.

OTF, I like to think of it as I'll play this hand the same way I'd play JJ/T9cc type stuff because those are the hands that have the toughest time not playing face up, and AQhh is the polar opposite of those hands (wants 88 to fold when it bets, likes facing aggression on overcard and hearts when it checks, etc).

Checking is totally fine obviously. Betting 40% is also a good option because those vulnerable hands like to protect against two players and this sort of hand likes to fold out the setmining hands that are still ahead. If the board were heavier than K92tt, we'd be forced to check. So I'd say well played there (could even shave a nickel off your bet).

Once he raises, flatting or shoving doesn't make a big practical difference. Just don't fold, obviously.

Anyone who considers flatting flop, I assume you are shoving all turns?

so there's $177 in the pot already, which you own about 45% of, add in a lil FE and jam it down his throat

+1 for Checking flop through. Or else bet larger. You are not going to fold out any K's with current bet, and are putting yourself in the exact spot you got stuck in.

We are in the worst possible spot, where we have contributed money to the pot, gaining little FE in the process and are in a meh, fold/AI situation where we are simply increasing our variance.

Unless you are betting for value, you should be betting for FE. If you are betting for neither, why are you betting?

Thanks for the input. I feel like flat calling was never an option in my mind and folding just seems too nitty. I backed myself into a corner but wanted to make sure there was merit to me doing so at least

There's $177 in the pot after hero Bets $55, $327 after Hero Get's raised. With these stack sizes, I expect there to be exactly Zero Fold Equity available.

So you're saying you wanted us to run the numbers and scenarios for you

3 bet needs to be bigger pre, make it $50
post is fine along as you 3bet got it in otf (there is no big decision)
also never c/back this flop w aqhh

What corner did you back yourself into? You likely ran into the top of his range and are still flipping for stacks.

This is poker. Sometimes you lose a stack.

no your previous post was exactly what i was looking for. feel better!?

it just came down to me wondering what the consensus was on the flop bet. After a 3! some say check, some say bet. i guess that's the beautiful thing about this game, i can do anything here except fold realistically

Before the raise, there'd be 110 + 122 = 232 in pot. Treat this as a shove for 205. So call that 205 to win 437. You need 32% (205/642) equity. I'd assign villain a tightish range of AK, KK, 99. Against that range you have 32.5% equity. So it's basically a breakeven all-in - there may be subtle changes here, like does he ever open/call 22 preflop, does he 4bet KK, does he slowplay flopped sets - especially KK - is he really x/r'ing AK, does he have JThh or KQ or AA or K9s? I think all of this evens out somewhat, but generally I'd give yourself a little bit more equity here than the 32.5% - especially for rare folds and hands like KQ spazzing out. So call it maybe 35%.... Anyway, time to gamble! Ship it in.

EDIT: Just noticed somebody else did this. But leaving it here anyway.

+1

To those advocating a check behind on the flop, isn’t this a range balancing issue? What part of a normal LLSNL 3! Range is not auto c-betting? Shouldn’t you be c betting here with 100% of your 3! Range since checking behind here basically says “I have either JJ, QQ or MAYBE AQ”?

You’re never going to check behind with AA, KK, or AK in this situation so I guess I don’t understand how checking behind doesn’t turn narrow your holding to those three hands?

i can't stress enough that checking back this flop w/ aqhh is a large error

pre....make it a little bigger. 55 or 60

nice c-bet size for the size of that pot and our stack size.

as played, (huh?) absolute no brainer fist pump shove. for the pot size and our equity, we are never folding, so just shove and get it in.

old guys at 1/2 check raising half their stack to see where they're at with a king can have some folds in them.

Call pre is ok too. AP 3b too small.

Not checking this one ever this game/3b pot. Half pot super routine and you needn’t bet more.

Preflop should be a touch bigger, $45 is good in position but nbd. Flatting the 12 pre is also fine imo. Having suited cards otb is great, but we don't want to get raised off of them pre. We should be more willingg to 3bet with offsuit AQ, fwiw, cause we don't mind folding to a 4 bet. 4 bets rarely happen at this level, so your 3bet is all good.

Otf: We generally have AA and AK for value here. With these, we can easily bet half pot on turn and shove river. So betting the flop is ok. We then have the option of checking back the turn if we miss. We are closer to the bottom of our 3 bet range at this point with A high so a bet is fine. That being said I'd rather check this hand tho. We could every so often be good with Aq high, and none of our other flush draws make as much sense to check (less showdown value). So by checking this hand, when a heart does turn, we protect our range somewhat when we have QQ or JJ. I'm prob also checking back KK.

I guess there is some unexpected fold equity haha.