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Help with call or raise and other math Help with call or raise and other math

10-13-2013 , 02:28 AM
First time posting, I apologize if I do not have the correct format. Thank you for your help!

Prehand Descriptions
Villain 1 (V1): middle aged Indian guy, reg, seems like an above average LAG type but looks maniacy the past 20 hands
-plays a super amount of hands, limped or raised, has played probably 12-14 of the last 20 hands
-15 hands ago chased nut flush draw on paired board to a 1.5 pot size bet with only river card to come and hit
-shown he raises to $15 with a huge variety of hands including aces, kings in addition to garbage
-unbalanced in his check raises as they are almost always monsters
Villain 2 (V2): middle aged Asian woman, reg, tight solid aggressive, won't be out of line but will cbet missed flops and such
Hero: solid tight with shades of nittyness



$2/5 NL (10 handed)
UTG ($300)
EP ($500)
EP+1($600)
MP V1 ($1500)
MP+1 ($800)
MP+2 Hero ($1700)
CO ($550)
Button ($450)
SB V2 ($600)
BB ($800)

Hero is dealt 2c 2d

UTG folds, EP folds, EP+1 limps, V1 raises to $15, MP+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, EP+1 calls

no reads except vague strength from V1

Flop ($105) Ad, Qd, 5s
checked all the way around

felt weird and seemed like someone was slowplaying something with 7 players though that seems bad with flush draw out

Turn ($105) 2h

V2 bets $65, BB fold, EP+1 folds, V1 raises to $150, MP+1 folds, Hero calls, CO folds, SB calls

-not sure what V2 has, probably AJ but most likely something with ace, but beaten by V1
-V1 definitely 100% not bluffing and has monster, he has played all monsters slowed, possible he has 3 4 (<5%) but the way he raised seemed like as a triumphant trapper who caught someone, putting him on AA, QQ, or AQ only
-i just hit a dream card so i can't just fold here, but am slightly worried since he has most likely only 1 of those 3 hands

River: ($555) 9c

V2 checks, V1 bets $300, Hero ?

-not worried about V2, but i'm not sure whether to call or min-raise/fold here, i don't think i'm ever folding

So 2 questions:
1). If I only place him on those 3 hands, what am I supposed to do? I am unfamiliar with the hand combination math.
2). If I also think that there is some high percentage that he may reshove with not just AA and QQ but also AQ, does that make it a min-raise/call?

Thanks again for any help and thoughts.
Help with call or raise and other math Quote
10-13-2013 , 08:12 AM
There are 9 combinations of AQ, 3 combinations of AA, and 3 combinations of QQ (just pair the remaining cards together and count the combinations).

He'd have to be pretty terribad to re-raise with AQ on this river because when you raise you are repping a straight. If he is that bad then I'd probably just call on the river. Otherwise, raise for value.
Help with call or raise and other math Quote
10-13-2013 , 08:15 AM
Re-read op. Why are you saying villain can only have AA QQ or AQ? You stated in OP that he raises to $15 with a wide variety of hands. Can he not have 55? A2? A5? 34?!?
Help with call or raise and other math Quote
10-13-2013 , 09:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by beefcurry
First time posting, I apologize if I do not have the correct format. Thank you for your help!

So 2 questions:
1). If I only place him on those 3 hands, what am I supposed to do? I am unfamiliar with the hand combination math.
2). If I also think that there is some high percentage that he may reshove with not just AA and QQ but also AQ, does that make it a min-raise/call?

Thanks again for any help and thoughts.
Here is a template to use for your HHs:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...mplate-770217/

As to your questions:

1) I'm never folding. So I can eliminate that option. As to whether a call is better than a min-raise, you have to have him ranged as tight as possible and look at the combos of hands that you beat (that will call the min-raise) vs. hands that beat you . For simplicity, I will use AA, QQ, AQ evenly weighted as his range (even though you said 34 can be there too) There are 6 combos of hands that beat you and 9 combos of hands that you beat. If he calls with AQ 100% of the time (thus evenly weighted), then obviously min-raising makes sense as 9/15 (or 60%) of his calling range is AQ. But if he only calls with AQ 50% of the time and calls or raises with AA/QQ 100% of the time, raising becomes -EV. I think the break even point is 66% calling with AQ.
So, as you can see you need villain to comply with your plan 70% of the time for it to be profitable to raise. Therefore, I don''t like raising here. Also, if there is a small chance villain is bluffing, then raising will fold out the bluffs too

2)Villain is never (I think) shoving with worse over your min-raise. So, minraise/call is total spew.

As for calling, you have to put 300 to win 855, so close to 3:1. You need to be right 26% of the time for it to be EV neutral and any percentage higher is +EV
Help with call or raise and other math Quote
10-13-2013 , 12:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PsychoStalkingFish
Re-read op. Why are you saying villain can only have AA QQ or AQ? You stated in OP that he raises to $15 with a wide variety of hands. Can he not have 55? A2? A5? 34?!?
That was just my guesstimation/feel. I felt him thinking he had such a monster/cinch hand (in his eyes), he had to slowplay it. His flop check was really weird since he cbets almost no matter what ranging from 1/3pot to pot. His checking range is almost all monsters since he splashes in all pots so much normally. He would prob cbet his bottom set since 7 way pot he would expect someone to have an ace. Though being 7 way with a flush draw out, he should have cbet with AQ AA or QQ. Again it was mainly speculation that he was slowplaying a super monster the whole time to rule out a2, a5 and 34.
Help with call or raise and other math Quote

      
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