Quote:
Originally Posted by mycardsareblank
Raising the flop is not good, leading isn't too great either
leading
we likely have the best hand with KJ. If we lead at the pot on a bone dry board with 3 villains yet to act, 1 of which was the preflop raiser and is likely to fire a c-bet with about, I dunno, 99.9% of his range, that preflop raiser folds the worst part of his range which he would have fired with. If we lead, we also open ourselves up to a RR OOP with 2 streets to go when we don't have a lock hand, which would vex the **** out of us. Probably the same price to lead or c/c, the difference is that we're keeping our range ill defined, which is likely ahead of v1 or v2, and keeping the pot a more manageable size.
reraising
there is something to be said for hand protection, but we are OOP in a multi-way pot. If we raise, we're likely to over-commit. C/C keeps our range wide in our opponent's eyes and keeps the pot small. We can still get away from the hand, and can also get an opponent to put more money into the pot with a worse hand.
I like the squeeze preflop, I hate playing this out of the blinds 4 way. It is not a good hand, in fact it is a pretty serious RIO hand.
This is the part that you are 100% wrong about.
If we call the flop bet, the pot grows to $270 with two streets of action left along with two players. So pot control is out the window and the next bet will lead to a pot that is bigger than all effective stacks involved.
In this scenario we have competing poker principles. In my opinion, the fault of many advocating the c/c line is that they are not weighting the principles correctly.
If the pot were $50, if our hand wasn't so vulnerable, if there weren't 17 cards that we don't want to see, if we weren't OOP, then sure, a c/c line is fine.
But that isn't the case. FFS, the pot is 1/2 our effective stack and the next bet likely makes a pot that is bigger than all effective stacks involved, so you are "dreaming" if you are thinking you can pot control.
And all that, "We don't want to fold lesser hands out" is crap as well. In your mind, your villains are so stupid that they will keep betting with complete air but then not so stupid to call a c/r with a weak J or draw. You can't have it both ways. The villains described are not folding a weak J or draw.
Similarly, on one hand you keep saying, "We are likely ahead here" but when it comes to c/r you say, "Oh, but I don't want to over commit?" FFS you can't have it both ways. Pot will be 1/2 our stack and there are 2 streets of action left with 2 villains behind.
So the question becomes, when is a pot worth going to war for or taking it down?
In my opinion, when the pot is at least 40% of my stack, when i'm likely ahead but my hand is vulnerale, then I'm all for going to war or taking it down.
Passiveness is just not winning poker. It just isn't. Heads up, sure, I'd have no problem c/c into a spewy villain, but TWO villains. Between them there are 17 cards we don't want to see, 17 cards run twice, and oh, by the way, we are going to c/c which gives our villains PERFECT odds to draw. And that is what they are doing, they are drawing to two pair, straights, over cards, and even baby sets, or they are floating just to fire big later and take it down...
IMO, its not even close. Given the size of the pot, our hand, being OOP, and the fact there are 17 freaking cards we don't want to see, and two streets of action left, and the villains' description, this is an easy super easy c/r take it down situation.
If we had a set, then I could get behind a c/c line here, but we don't. OUr hand is just way way way to vulnerable here. Again, there are 17 cards we don't want to see run twice and the next bet leads to a pot bigger than our stack....