Hand 1
2/5nl
Hero has ~$750 and is in bb with 7
8
Villain has ~$700 and is in cut-off. Villain is TAG/nitty middle-age man. He is probably small winning player. Plays mainly ABC straight forward. Skill lvl 5 out of 10.
Action:
Utg open raises to $15, Villain calls $15, Hero calls $10.
Flop T
J
T
($47) 3-players
Hero checks, Utg bets $20, Villain raises to $60, Hero check-raises to $130, Utg folds, Villain calls $70.
Turn 3
($327) 2-players
Hero bets $250, Villain raises all-in to $485 total, Hero calls.
Villain tables A
9
Thoughts:
-I definitely should have folded the flop. Playing a big pot on this paired board is horrendous, and I could be dead.
-I could lead this flop and the hand probably plays very differently.
-When the Villain raises the flop I'm thinking his range is something like KJ, AJ, 9T, QT, KT, AT, KcQc. I expect him to always fold his top pair hands, and continue will any decent 10.
-When he calls, I plan to play a small pot on any club 9 or higher. I'm check-folding blanks, and getting it in on small clubs.
What would you do on the flop? Is even the pre-flop call bad?