Hero Stack(BB) Qc8c- $515 Image - TAG
Villain Stack(Button) - $650 Image - TAG
Villain appears to be the only Reg, most of the others a rec
Full Ring, Loose, limping table.
Preflop - UTG limps, UTG+2 raise to $10, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG calls. Pot - $42
Flop comes Ac3c8s
Action checked to Button, who bets $35.
Hero check raises to $110
All others fold, back to Button(villain), who thinks for a long while, plays with his chips, looks like he's about to fold multiple times, then shoves all in.
Hero calls.
What do you think the button's range is here? I mean, we're not ahead of anything except a worse flush draw which seems fairly unlikely. Given this assumption that we're behind we probably only have flush outs for the win.
9 outs, approx. 35% to hit. We have to call $395 to win $582, approximately 1.5-1. We need to be getting 2-1 to make this a profitable call, so it's a fold.
I would fold preflop. I'm not in love with 3 gappers due to their RIO (ex. how in love exactly are we with a JT9 flop in a raised pot?), plus we're OOP, plus there's a good player who has position on us (we're not making any money off him postflop). The price is obviously very cheap, but I think I just lean to a pass with this one.
Flop really depends on all the stack sizes. If the first two guys have shortish stacks, I would probably go for a check/shove on the flop so long as deeper Button doesn't get involved. If all the stacks are deep, I would prefer a donk (we have good hand equity and possibly just steal the pot right here if no one has an Ace). As played, I would just call the bet as we're too deep (the reward of winning the smallish pot isn't worth the risk of our huge stacks behind), especially OOP. I'm also hoping the others come along to pad my odds.
Dude just saw a tight guy check/raise to ask to play for 170bb stacks, and he just shoved on us. Very good chance we are only drawing to our flush outs; I haven't done the math, but I doubt we have the odds to chase those (especially if they are dirty / can be outdrawn).
Pre is debateable, I guess. I probably personally fold this but call Q9s.
It's a math/ranging problem now. We need 37.5% to call. His likely range is {88,33,A3s,A8s}, which we only have only 34% equity against, so fold. You could call if he is the type to overplay a hand like AK here, but a player you described as a TAG reg probably isn't doing that often enough. Hardly anybody 3-bets a flush draw on the flop like this.
Yeah, I'm sure putting $7 to win $42 is just a massive terrible punt. I'll see myself out.
I don't think preflop is horrible, but it's not as simple as the current immediate odds we are getting closing the action (which are admittedly good). Position, difficulty of opponents, difficulty of hand, and our postflop skill all have to factor in.
I think it's probably pretty close. QJs would probably be a snap call for me and QTs wouldn't be too far off. I would probably sigh call Q9s depending on how bad the two first guys are. The clincher for me is the poor RIO on 3 gappers when we make a straight and someone else makes a better one; sorta like the difference between AT and A9 (former can make useful straights, latter can't) and TT vs 99 (former can make nut straight, latter can't).
I don't think preflop is horrible, but it's not as simple as the current immediate odds we are getting closing the action (which are admittedly good). Position, difficulty of opponents, difficulty of hand, and our postflop skill all have to factor in.
I think it's probably pretty close. QJs would probably be a snap call for me and QTs wouldn't be too far off. I would probably sigh call Q9s depending on how bad the two first guys are.
GcluelesspreflopnoobG
Agreed, it's really close. It's "fine", "meh", "okay." I will say I agree, if we are bad post then it's an easy fold. Given Hero's play it's probably more of a fold.
Agreed, it's really close. It's "fine", "meh", "okay." I will say I agree, if we are bad post then it's an easy fold. Given Hero's play it's probably more of a fold.
Ya, it's a simple math mistake that is often made where you've forgotten to add your bet to the size of the pot (I've done it lots in the past too); see Persian's correct math above.
A simple way to not make the mistake in the future at the table is ask yourself what equity you would need if someone bet all-in $100 into a $0 pot. You're being asked to call $100 to win $100, where obviously you don't need $100/$100 = 100% equity to call. You need $100/($100 + $100) = 50% equity to call.
It's amazing I beat 2/5, 5/10 and occasionally 10/20 without the ability to do correct math.
I'm going to spend the next few days re-learning math and fix some issues on that end. I'm doing something fundamentally wrong in most areas.
It's good to know you can for you non math guys out there that you can beat higher stakes games without being solid math.
Thanks for the corrections boys, going to re-read and test myself occasionally around here. Be on the lookout for some maths and correct me when you see it.
