- Hand Analysis

- around 18:30, November 9, 2015

- Foxwoods

- 1-2 no limit Texas hold 'em

- Hero in UTG+1 with AsKs

- UTG straddles to $4

- Hero limps $4

- Small Blind limps $4

- Big Blind folds

- UTG checks

- Small Blind checks K 4 4 rainbow flop

- UTG checks

- Hero checks

- Small Blind bets $10 to rainbow X turn, X = 6, 7, or 8

- UTG calls $10

- Hero calls $10

- Small blind checks X river, X = 6, 7, or 8 that does not pair the turn

- UTG checks

- Hero bets $55 into pot of $40

Just play it straight forward. Raise preflop and bet every street.

Thank you for your response.

What are your stacks?

Definitely raise pre-flop. Not sure I like the over-bet on the river. What worse is calling? Were you planning to bet fold or bet call or bet shove?

Too much deception at every street, straightforward for sure, especially in a game this slow -- everyone behind you just folded a straddled pot w two EP limps?

A hand this strong pre and post will make you more money when played ABC considering you're winning a majority or small/medium pot SDs on K44xx

The way you played the hand is pretty cringe-worthy, can you explain why you just flatted pre and checked flop? I'm first raising pre-flop to $20; AKs is a valuable premium hand pre-flop and we want to start pumping some money into the pot. Also, since UTG straddled he may be inclined to continue with a weaker range than normal since most people feel they have to defend their straddle, especially at $1/2. On the flop, I'm betting out $15 to get value from Kx and random PP's such as 55-88. As played, I actually like raising the turn small to $30-35 since our hand is fairly disguised and he won't fold most Kx except the very weak K2-K8 variety. Since he is in the SB he could have 4x, but that is the danger of slow-playing AK pre-flop.

On the river, I'm probably betting a little bit less($40-45) but since we didn't bet the flop and the turn we missed out on a substantial amount of value in this hand.

horrible hand
no idea of stack depth,no reads on villain
raise pre bet flop,bet turn,bet river

I would expect this thread to get locked and OP read how to post hands

Thank you for your reply. $55 bet is for value, mostly expecting calls from lower two-pairs. Rarely expecting a river check-raise here, perhaps due to player-feel, but bet-folding if so.

Thank you for your reply. Limping UTG+1 with AsKs is for positional pot control. A relevant factor is a good player, who is raising on average at least one hand every round, and in particularly raising when I limp and sometimes open-limp is two to my left. I can comfortably call a two-bet pre-flop from him or any other player while creating some disguise for the strength of my hand.

In the interest of risk aversion and at the expense of mathematical expected value maximization, my present philosophy approaching live low-stakes NL is to win multi-way showdowns with nut-type hands where I get to see rivers as cheaply as possible instead of a philosophy approaching live low-stakes NL where I am exploiting relatively smaller edges and folding out other players.

I.e. not trying to play fancy poker here, just trying to win money by making decisions easy for myself

Thank you for your reply. I cover table with the maximum buy-in of $300; I did not notice stack sizes during hand; everyone at the ten-handed table is sizable; no one short. Both players are tight, not out of line, maybe good but just card-dead at the moment. Uninteresting info.

Value betting thinly is the #1 thing in LLSNL. Checking K high flops with AK has 0 benefit.

Thank you for your reply. You might be right, and the direction this conversation is going in is very interesting to me, but I believe the #1 thing in LLSNL is calling with the nuts and not value betting thinly. Value betting thinly is the #1 thing in Live High Stakes No Limit.

Raise pre. If there's an in game dynamic where you expect a player behind to raise, you could limp/rr here. Limping to call a raise isn't optimal. You will still be OOP.
Bet flop. You have position, build the pot. Even a small bet would be better than a check.
Raise turn. Again, build this pot. However, some can easily have a 4 here bc of how you played it preflop.
River : what are you targeting for calls? Weak K? Middle pair? Doesn't seem like you have much sense of Vs range.

As for where the money is in LLSNL: you won't get monster hands and nut hands enough for that to be your sole source of profit. Opponents love to call, so value bets are where the money lies.

Thank you for your reply.

One, another implicit benefit of keeping pot small through pre-flop, flop, and turn is greater likelihood of seeing opponents' cards at the river showdown. This information pays value for the future.

Two, in LLSNL I am more comfortable playing big multi-way pots with hands like jack-ten suited rather than hands like ace-king, overpairs, and top pair type hands. In LLSNL we want to maximize winnings with the former category of hands. With the latter category of hands, I believe in LLSNL the proper philosophical approach is to minimize losses.

Mostly expecting calls from lower two-pairs.

The qualification for monster and nut hands in LLSNL is less wherein we get these hands frequently enough to turn profit. Perhaps instead of "calling with the nuts" as the #1 thing in LLSNL, as I type previously, "bluff-catching" is the #1 thing in LLSNL. More than opponents love to call, opponents love to bet marginally.

Your theories are wrong. Raise pre and bet bet bet. Waiting on your opponents to bet for you at 1/2 is insanely incorrect.

Thank you for your reply. I am wrong and incorrect in the sense of expected value optimization, perhaps. What I posit is a form of play in LLSNL that is better in terms of risk management whilst still offering positive expectation overall. imo this is preferable

Standard Raise the straddle, bet bet bet - if you are lucky the straddle is a Lagtard who will 3-bet you light with some stupid hand and then you pile him

Thank you for your reply. Feels unlikely UTG will take this line. This straddle is UTG's first straddle in about ten rounds with him. Player-feel important here.

raise to $20 pre, 2/3 pot flop, shove turn. That's it

Thank you for your reply. Your sizing recommendation helps.

How would you know that? You're not a winner at high stakes (you play 1/2).

I'm not trying to be mean, I'm trying to help you. Your play in this hand was very bad, and is indicative of many leaks throughout your game.

In a multiway pot, people are unlikely to bluff. So when you play passively and check it down, you're banking on someone else having a king and betting it for you.

Think about it this way:
If someone else has a pocket pair, they might call a bet from you, but they won't bet the hand themselves.

If someone else has a King, they might bet the hand themselves, and they will definitely call several bets from you.

So when you bet, there are several hands that might call you. But when you check, it's very hard to make any money.

Definitely raise pre. Checking when AK/AQ hit on dry flops can be deceptive and help you get value when you bet on turn and river against another opponent who decides to call you down.

With AK/AQ I like to balance cbet and check frequency with whether it hits or miss.

Thank you for your reply. Your bifurcation of the two-pair hand-range into pocket pair and king scenarios is helpful.

As I state: calling with good or bluff-catching hands is a high priority to me in LLSNL, even higher than value-betting in LLSNL.

#14 is an important post. I agree with many that Doyle Brunson, via 1979's Super/System, inks the theoretically optimal solution to no-limit Texas hold them as aggressive play. My hypothesis is that, in live low-stakes no-limit Texas hold them, fundamentally passive-tight play also wins. Note a form of play does not have to be optimal to still be positively expectant. Note positively expectant with risk management can be superior to theoretically optimal, even in the long-term: results affect a player's confidence andability and overall Life EV, if you will. Also note this hypothesis is a LLSNL hypothesis. As stakes increase, play generally improves. Thus, higher stakes imply fundamentally tight-passive play decreases in value expectation.

However, I consider this hand broadly aberrational to my general strategy in LLSNL: note my river action indicating my belief that this hand is a value-betting situation.

Thank you for your reply. Your recommendation to balance flop continuation-bet and flop check frequency is particularly interesting. My recommendation is limp here pre-flop at certain games. Position tends to be a more important factor than hand value. My recommendation is to fold queen ace offsuit in some games when under the gun. I find most hand analysis posts in Live Low-stakes NL on Two Plus Two are in out of position situations. This observation implies out of position situations are much harder.

This post hurts my head. I MIGHT be a little hungover from last night. OR, it could be the insane blabbering of some of the posts in this thread.

to the OP.. Check or muck the river.

That is part of my philosophical outlook on bilateral confusion optimization theory. The information you give off by mucking a screwed up hand will pay huge dividends later in the session.. TRUST ME!!

BTW I just remembered the turn is a nine; no straight.

LOL. Someone folded trip 4s? So they actually played this hand worse than you.

Raise pre. Bet/fold every street after. I'm never stacking off with AK here as someone above suggested unless you are simply willing to turn your hand into a bluff.

You played this very sneaky; no one puts you on A-K. I'm not a big fan of playing A-K as fast as a lot of the other posters.

I like your line until the river. I think $20-25 would have been a good river bet. If UTG or SB has a decent king, you may get called. When you bet $55, I'd think you would only get called by better.

However, it would be nice to know stack sizes and your reads on the two villains also.