The hand

There is a Mississippi Straddle on on the BTN for $10. The two villains in the hand are the SB and the BB.

The SB and I don't have a ton of history yet, but I can tell by the way he plays that he is very likely to be solid. He seems to play fairly tight but is competent. We have $720 effective against this player.

The BB is a very loose and passive player. He has some postflop tendencies but they are irrelevant in this hand. He is likely to be viewed as a big fish by the SB, and is overall one of the bigger losers in the game. We have $550 effective against this player.

Our image is very much a winning image. I'm up about $1500 on the night. I have been on a heater and had a great run of cards. Though not all of my hands made it to showdown, the fact that I had been 3betting fairly often probably didn't influence the SB much in this hand, because every time I did make it to showdown I had a premium hand, and because of the presence of the BB (more later).

BTN straddle to $10. The action starts on the SB. He raises to $30. The BB calls. It folds around to us in MP. I have AdKd and 3bet to $110. Folds back around to the SB who raises to $500, with $220 behind. The BB folds.

Thoughts

He's unlikely to be polarized here. First of all, I hadn't seen him 3bet much at all in the session, secondly, as I view him as fairly solid, he has a pretty major fish on his immediate left that he would want to keep in the pot, and he probably views our image as being fairly nitty. I think that at least some of the time he is calling with the bottom of his 3bet value range, rather than 3betting.

If he is 3betting for value, he is a tight player, and he is capable of hand reading and probably views us as being tight. I would probably give him a range of {QQ+, AKo, AKs}.

I don't think this type of player is ever value raising too much wider thant his for 150bb (even in a straddled pot) with a fish on his immediate left, our image, and the fact that he is a fairly tight player. Plus, live poker, 4bets are the nuts. :P

So, what kind of pot odds are we getting to make our decision?

Well, there's 220 in the middle, plus his 720 behind, so I'm calling (essentially) 720 to win 940. Getting about 1.3-to-1 on my money (more later). If I was getting 1.5-to-1 I'd still only have 41.5%.

At the table, at the time, I wasn't convinced he was always doing this with QQ. He may view us as a bit nitty, or he might be nitty himself. It's tough to say. I thought he had QQ about half of the time, but I stoved QQ fully instead of only half the combinations in case I am being too cautious and justifying a bad fold. Even with all the combinations of QQ we're getting MAYBE neutral EV, perhaps slightly worse.

In retrospect, away from the table, if we stove his ranges:

We are getting 1 to 1.30555 on our call ($940/$720). This works out that we need 43.337% equity against his range to break even. According to PokerStove, against a range of AKo, AKs, QQ+ we have 41.904% equity. If we include JJ we get 42%. Even if he is value raising JJ+ 100% of the time our call is slightly un-profitable.

This doesn't even include the fact that I don't play poker to take coin-flip situations (aka neutral EV or break-even plays) when I feel like I have a decent edge. If I am calling a river bet getting 2 to 1, I need to win 33% of the time for my call to be break even. I will call if I think I win about 40% of the time, I will call. So in this example, I'd really want something like 45% equity. We don't get that good until we make his range 88+, AKo, AKs.

A few questions

One of the aspects of my game I am working on is projecting future actions and deciding on our appropriate action in advance. In this case, I am raise/folding because I expect to get calls from worse hands, but to be behind if I am 4bet here. Given that I am raise/folding, is there any merit to 3betting slightly smaller, say $95-100? Or have I already made it smaller given that I'm a bit smaller than pot sized here ($10 in dead money from BTN).

Is my perception of a solid but a bit nitty live player accurate? Namely, do they only 4bet/fold if they face an OOP 3bet, or do, as I suspect, they call with their medium strength hands, and only raise their premium hands? Maybe because a call would create a smaller SPR he'd be jamming wider than this, but you can see by the math if we assume he's never jamming AJs or AQs here, that he has to go as low as 88 before we show a decent profit calling against his range.

Is the range I am assigning this player appropriate? Do you think he's ever 4betting light here, or turning AJs into a bluff?

Unfortunately I don't have specific hands from this session where I could notice if this player flatted a 3bet OOP or not. My reads would be more accurate with more history.

Those of you guys who are fairly solid, what do you do against seemingly competent players who you don't have such specific reads on yet, like whether they play raise/fold facing a 3bet OOP or not?

3bet way smaller. $75-$85 is fine. I would probably flat against tighter/competent opponents who are raising a straddle from the SB though. BTW, his sizing indicates a fairly strong hand. He is inviting action, IMO.

As far as their tendencies facing a 3bet, it depends. I have seen plenty of bad play calling a 3bet OOP from what I consider tighter/competent opponents.

I honestly am not sure his range includes AK all that much, if at all. I think this is QQ+ a crap ton of the time. I think it's KK+ even more so. Could it be a random spaz? Sure, but unlikely. If he is doing it then congrats to him. Could it be AK? Sure, but I don't think it's as much as the stronger hands. We do block some combos of AKo. Take that into account.

AP - I fold.

Yeah I think this is QQ+ like always. Fold. I'd flat the initial raise

Sb 4 bet sizing is waack for a so called competent player... Hes obv never read about leveraging..

I would still 3b pre, but to like $85 and would definitely be folding to the 4b in this situation. Agreed that it is QQ+ and even most likely KK+.

If he has aces and is getting folds from AK then you're right. But if has AK and is going to get folds from AK and QQ maybe his bet is more competent than we think.

Competent is a relative terms. I imagine he is saying that the player was competent for a llsnl situation. Also, that is what a competent player would do. A great player might mix in lighter 4b, but a purely "competent" player never will.

LOL... I'm not solid, but w/e.

I have to give the guy some credit for a decent hand with the SB open. Not that I expect him to l/r, but he certainly be l/c hands with a fairly strong range.

What I want to know is:

How likely is it that Hero will be the effective button if you just call?

How likely is it that the straddler will "protect his straddle"?

I think your 3b sizing is fine. Pot to you would be $100 and you made a slightly bigger then pot sized raise. You don't want to 3b smaller unless you are intending to 3b/f anyway. The last thing you want to happen is for the flop to come out A45r and have villain fold his QQ. So the pot sized 3b is correct.

Villains 4b sizing is curious. I think it doesn't so much imply the weaker parts of his range, but rather something specific about his mindset. He's telling you he's all in, but doesn't actually want to do it. I think his range is pretty strong.

Having said that, as played, I probably just shove and play my AKs for 144bb, but only 72straddle-blinds.

But I may not be 3b here. If I think I'll get the button by default, or if I think the straddler will put in a 3b for me, I am happy to play my hand slow and see the flop.

Pot sized raise is $30*3 + ($30 + $10) = $130. (shortcut for calculating pot sized raises from PLO, 3x bet + remaining dead money not counting the bet you 3x'd).
Those curious, here's the result:

I don't play with a mississippi straddle that often. But I'd think a SB open is very strong and that we wouldn't do well against his range. I'd flat here. But if another competent player opened in ep,mp or later I would 3b 75-90 to take the initiative and a smaller raise keeps worse from folding. but as played, his 4b to 500 is extremely strong. AA would raise smaller, so I'm guessing QQ,KK. The 3b is fine here but I'd also flat pre sometimes.

I'd fold to his 4b.