1/2, 9 handed

300 effective

2 fish limp in, hero raises to 16 with ATin mp.
Villain calls on button, fish fold

Flop ($39)

KJ7

Hero bets $22, villain calls
Gutshot and a backdoor draw.. Probably should have bet more?

Turn ($84)

KJ75

Hero bets $50, villain calls

Villain has a fair bit of weak hands in his range since he didnt raise small flop bet. I picked up a lot of equity. Maybe could have gone bigger again??

River is 8s and i give up and check.

This villain was pretty new to the table. Thought he was playing solid except for one very notable hand villain played: villain limps utg with A9 off. Flop comes T93ss, villain leads pot into 4 players. Mp raises to 25. Button raises to 50. Villain raises to 105 lol. Folds to button to shoves his 200 with AT and villain calls it off and loses.

Should i just have check folded flop vs this villain? Check called turn? ThNks!

The example HH you gave means V can never be solid. It is a disaster through and through. It shows he's bad passive and bad aggro, and doesn't have a solid grasp of the game.

It also indicates that he is a bit sticky. Why are we trying to bluff away a bad/sticky opponent?

Flop and turn are kinda OK since we aren't risking a ton, we have equity, we might get paid from this V if we drill it, and hopefully we have at least some FE.

Since we've seen firsthand how bad he is, his range could be pretty wide here. I suspect a lot of Kx, some Jx, a lot of FD's, maybe some slowplayed 2 pair/sets (since he's obviously not the greatest player), and a few straight draws (mostly T9?). But as wide as his range is, it's not ATC, since he prob isn't going to call pre, float flop+turn with air.

Betting this river specifically (or almost any river) is poor opponent assessment on our part. There are parts of his range he'll fold. But unless he's at the bottom of his range, it will take a large sized bluff to induce a fold, which I think is way too risky to be EV+. And the smaller bet just gets called/raised way too frequently.

These are just my thoughts. I always welcome dissenting opinions to see if I ****ed up somewhere, so I can try to learn.

Hand is fine.
Check the turn most times if it's not a diamond.

If the river was any card that is not space and less than a 8 I think it becomes a lot more interesting.
Might be a case for $100 river bluff to move off weak showdown value then.

Normally I think bluffing the river would be a cool play because V could think you have the flush, but against this particular opponent check-fold could be fine based on the Hand you showed us that happened earlier.

What do people think about betting maybe 65 on the turn and then shoving on an A, spade, or diamond river? I don't think it'd work against this V, but it seems like something cool to keep in mind.

grunching,

I wouldn't advocate betting more on the flop. The board smacks V's range and you want to set the price. I'd bet $18 against a villain who won't see thru that. Probably c/f against a competent villain that won't offer good implied odds. As played, I'd go a bit smaller on the turn for the same reason. Maybe $40. Although I'd be more inclined to c/c against a villain who I think will never bet more than $50ish here because maybe we get a free card. I'm also giving up river against described villain.

Yeah, that's a decent plan against V's with fold buttons imo.

Depending on my imagine and villains, good chance I'm checking this flop. This board easily connects with at least one of the villains range and is draw heavy. A flop bet isn't like likely to get through.

Not a good semi bluff spot as you probably don't have a good equity versus villains calling range.


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I'm checking the turn or betting more. board texture hasn't changed much and this sticky V ain't folding for a little over 1/2 pot after calling the flop. I prefer a check, but if I'm betting, $80-$100 so I actually have some fold equity.

I think it's definitely a reasonable line, although like you said, not against this V

You absolutely should cbet this flop IMO.

I gave him any pair, 54s+, 75s+, A9o+, A2s+ and some other broadways. Even if he's calling with any draw, or middle pair+), I estimate he's still folding 50% of his hands. I'd bet pretty close to the pot, say 35. We're OOP and the board is pretty wet. I really don't want to encourage him to peel light.

OTT, we have about 35% equity against his range -- enough that we're not folding if he makes a reasonable bet. We could lead out, but if we do and he raises (which he can do light), we're going to have to surrender our equity. The 5d isn't a scare card (though it does devalue his draws), so bluffing isn't as attractive.

But if you do decide to bet, make it enough to count. V's range is heavy with moderate made hands and draws. Most of those are going to call a 60%-pot bet. Either check or bet something pretty close to the pot.

As played, we can probably remove all the big hands from his range. The dude that raised/called middle pair isn't quietly calling two small bets with a monster IMO.

So if he's calling with MP+ and any OESD or flush draw, he's calling over 80% of the time on the turn. Bluffing here and giving up on the river is burning money.

When the flush draw comes in on the river, he may have hit gin. But all of his other hands (TP, MP, straight draws) really don't want to call a bet here. I think if you bet 125 you'd get folds nearly half the time -- that's assuming he calls with TP+.