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gutshot flush draw river bluff vs tight reg spew? gutshot flush draw river bluff vs tight reg spew?

09-10-2015 , 03:49 PM
1-2nl late, game has slowed down a lot in the last hour from 3 full tables to 1 last table 6 handed.

This reg is very tight, somewhat weak with betsizing tells both pre and postflop.
around 90bbs effective, hero covers everyone on the table
Hero has T9dd
He opens UTG for 7, BU calls, SB calls, I call in the BB. (Yeah I could 3bet, when he opens to 7 that's the bottom of his range, even 6 handed but I thought it was better to just play this hand given I had recently 3bet last orbit).

Pot 25
Flop KdQc8d
SB checks, I check, He cbets 12. This guy is pretty much weak tight fit or fold so he won't be cbetting with a draw or air into 4 people, his range is not THAT strong either because I would expect him to bet around 20 with KQ, maybe he bets so little when he nailed the flop with KK QQ but I think he bets more with that pre, so his range is something like QJ KJ KT K9 QT.
Folds around, hero calls.

Pot around 50
Turn KdQc8d9c
Hero checks he bets 16, removing K9 from his range because lolsizing. Hero raises to 45 planning to shove a club river and obv diamond/J. I don't think he folds much OTT because he has a lot of pair+gutshots that's why I didn't bomb it, I wanted to leave enough behind to have some FE OTR.
He calls.

pot around 140
River KdQc8d9c8c
Hero pushes out a stack that covers V (around 110).
gutshot flush draw river bluff vs tight reg spew? Quote
09-11-2015 , 08:18 AM
Raising the turn when your equity is at its lowest is pretty terrible particularly when you don't expect villain to fold to your raise. It seems like you were just clicking buttons with that one.

I don't really like club on river as much as a complete blank but think shove is still fine.
gutshot flush draw river bluff vs tight reg spew? Quote
09-11-2015 , 08:52 AM
meh i don't know if i love the preflop call from the BB, even with a great price and closing the action. we're always going to be OOP and SCs play so much better with position and initiative. not to mention we are only 90BBs deep

our equity is prob decent on the flop 4ways. why not c/r after he put out a weak bet?

i don't like the turn c/r very much. i don't think its going to get him to fold enough of his TP-ish hands, and our equity just halved. for this price (and the ass-end of the straight draw) we can just call profitably

i'm torn on the river bomb. he's tight, his bet sizing has been weak, but what are we repping? how many combos of clubs do we have that c/c the flop, then c/r the turn? people never believe the back door, which is why i prefer to value bet it than bluff it
gutshot flush draw river bluff vs tight reg spew? Quote
09-11-2015 , 09:16 AM
We are repping J10 specifically with this action I think. The river is one of the worst in the deck for J10 yet we shove anyway. Can't tell if he is a thinking player, but if villain is, will be hard to sell him on that concept I think. Much prefer a c/r on the flop for a few reasons. Your equity is huge, you can make sure that A-10 hands don't call you which would destroy your gutshot outs, you seem to have a lot of FE given betting tells by villain. Turn isn't a terrible time to bluff at it, but I think flop is probably preferable.
gutshot flush draw river bluff vs tight reg spew? Quote
09-11-2015 , 11:08 AM
ehh don't love it. Don't like turn raise but think its necessary if you want to bluff river as a lot of guys, especially toward the end of the night may just shrug their shoulders and call a river lead with one pair. However i don't like just flatting either OTT as its just hard to make money, yea you could get paid on some of your outs but with villains overall weakness in the hand just don't think we get paid enough to make just flatting profitable, although maybe I'm wrong since we are getting like 4-1 and probably have 25%. I think either play is fine but I'm not in love with either.
gutshot flush draw river bluff vs tight reg spew? Quote
09-11-2015 , 11:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamitontheriver
We are repping J10 specifically with this action I think. The river is one of the worst in the deck for J10 yet we shove anyway. Can't tell if he is a thinking player, but if villain is, will be hard to sell him on that concept I think. Much prefer a c/r on the flop for a few reasons. Your equity is huge, you can make sure that A-10 hands don't call you which would destroy your gutshot outs, you seem to have a lot of FE given betting tells by villain. Turn isn't a terrible time to bluff at it, but I think flop is probably preferable.
but if we had JTo, would we check the turn and risk another card rolling off for free? when its double suited? i think man players donk some % of the time, and then when we have JTo, we raise it up a little more than we did in this hand. then the jam on a pairing river... i just don't know if the line makes too much sense
gutshot flush draw river bluff vs tight reg spew? Quote
09-11-2015 , 04:07 PM
So what would be everyones line?
C/r flop, shove turn? A flop c/r has zero FE where I play, especially last to act, that's why I wanted to c/r turn because it shows a lot more strenght. You guys think he calls flop to fold to a turn shove enough? It's true my sizing would be bigger OTT with JT tho. After he bets 16 I felt I had a lot of FE but could get looked up pretty light if I shoved because it's just such a huge bet and V probably has a gutshot he will want to see the river with and maybe his pair is good.

If I did have JT Im def shoving this river, esp if I have a club in my hand. Only club flushes he can have are AKcc and KJcc KTcc BUT I would of made it something like 65 OTT, maybe even shoved, V is def not so good to realize this.

Edit: I think the loss in equity is minimal compared to the added FE when I c/r turn. It is almost my goto line now with good draws because some guys do actually fold to this line, no one folds to a flop c/r shove turn anymore.
gutshot flush draw river bluff vs tight reg spew? Quote
09-11-2015 , 05:07 PM
When the turn bricks you are generally going to be losing about 20% equity. You know your villains better than we do but that still seems very optimistic to make up in FE.

The bigger point is that combo draws are such a strong hand that you don't need to stop raising them just because you are getting called. If your c/r raise is just combo draws and set/2 pair hands and you are getting called 100%, you are printing money.
gutshot flush draw river bluff vs tight reg spew? Quote
09-11-2015 , 06:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamitontheriver
When the turn bricks you are generally going to be losing about 20% equity. You know your villains better than we do but that still seems very optimistic to make up in FE.

The bigger point is that combo draws are such a strong hand that you don't need to stop raising them just because you are getting called. If your c/r raise is just combo draws and set/2 pair hands and you are getting called 100%, you are printing money.
wouldn't having a 100% made hands, pure value range be even more profitable?

yea it's massively exploitable, but seriously nobody folds TP on a flush draw board in my local games for 100bbs, even myself have trouble folding TP in this game, Vs are very loose gambly.

agaisnt this specific villain, raising flop and shoving turn is probably good, he probably gets scared OTT after a huge flop raise, I wish I could come back in time and do that line to see if he folds and compare.

Also, I would raise this hand OTF if I was first to act after the cbettor, with 2 people to act behind me to make them fold some hand like AT as someone mentioned, when everybody folds and we're HU there's very few combos he can have that have RIO on me (esp since he doesn't bet non-made hands).

results
Spoiler:
he tanked and tanked, self-timed himself, aweee and hummmeddddddd, asked if i show if he folds, told him i will show if he shows, otherwise i wont.

he ammmmeddd some more and folded, showing KJ.
gutshot flush draw river bluff vs tight reg spew? Quote
09-11-2015 , 10:25 PM
If you don't think he has fold equity on the flop then this is a very standard check/call, check/call, check/fold spot. He's giving you great odds to draw on the turn.
gutshot flush draw river bluff vs tight reg spew? Quote
09-12-2015 , 03:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker
If you don't think he has fold equity on the flop then this is a very standard check/call, check/call, check/fold spot. He's giving you great odds to draw on the turn.
good point

check calling didnt even cross my mind lol
gutshot flush draw river bluff vs tight reg spew? Quote
09-12-2015 , 12:04 PM
Yes, this hand screams impatience to me. You don't have to win every hand. Often times villains will give you good odds to draw and you will simply miss. That's ok.
gutshot flush draw river bluff vs tight reg spew? Quote
09-12-2015 , 02:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker
Yes, this hand screams impatience to me. You don't have to win every hand. Often times villains will give you good odds to draw and you will simply miss. That's ok.
This is great advice. C/R a draw when you are getting a great price on a call can be a mistake.

@OP
There is $50 in the pot on the turn. V bets $16 giving you a good price(~4.1:1). If Hero was in villains spot with the same value hand, hero probably would have bet ~$35. This is part of the reason you make money, they offer you 4:1 on your draws but in a reverse spot you offer them 2.5:1. Assuming 12 outs here, your true odds to hit are 3.8:1. When you call you get a discount, when they call they overpay.
By C/R the turn, V has to call 29 to win 111, giving him about 3.8:1, you have essentially over corrected his mistake for him and offered him huge overlay.

In most of these spots I prefer to call and go for a value bet if I hit, with 4.1 immediate and some Implied Odds for when you hit i prefer that route to having to blast most rivers with piles of money hit/miss especially when FE is hard to properly evaluate at LLSNL
gutshot flush draw river bluff vs tight reg spew? Quote

      
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