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Gutshot in a big pot Gutshot in a big pot

01-14-2016 , 01:03 AM
Game: Live 1/2
Hand:65hh
Position: MP
Stack: 430$
Villain: Tight weak, unknown (80$, CO)

Preflop Action: UTG limps, UTG+1 raises to 10$, I call, HJ calls, CO reraises to 30$, 3 callers, I call, HJ calls. (180$)
Flop: 779r
Action: Checked to CO who shoves 50$, 2 callers (200$ & 150$ behind),

Now it's my turn, there is only HJ left to act after me, he has 120$ total.

Pot is 330$, I have 4 outs to the non-nut straight (and the board is paired).

Shoving
- If I shove and everyone folds, I would be calling 50$ to win 330$ (6,5 to 1) and I have 17% equity with 2 cards to come (4,5 to 1). I should shove.
-If I shove and the biggest stack calls (200$ more), I'll be betting 250$ to win 530 (2,1 to 1). I should not shove.
-If two players call I still won't have good enough odds.
-Since I have three opponents and the pot is pretty big, I don't think I have much FE, so I think shoving is out of question.

Calling
-If I call, there is a small chance the player behind me shoves all-in, which would be very bad for me.
-I would be calling 50$ into 330$ (6,5 to 1) to see 1 card (11 to 1), so I need my implied odds to be at least 4,5 times the bet (225$), my weak opponents are probably tied to the pot and won't fold so I might have enough implied odds, and also I might be able to see two cards.
-Even if I catch an 8, my hand might not be best, but it's not likely since it was 30$ preflop.


So I think shoving is out of question, it's between calling and folding, what would you do?
Gutshot in a big pot Quote
01-14-2016 , 01:05 AM
fold AINEC
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01-14-2016 , 01:11 AM
I'd like to add that it's a really weak 1/2 table and some players might be calling 50$ with two overs, even CO could have like AK...
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01-14-2016 , 01:17 AM
Fold! Calling is a huge unnecessary gambol.
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01-14-2016 , 01:28 AM
Fold pre, both to initial raise and 3bet by shorty
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01-14-2016 , 01:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CamNewton3
So I think shoving is out of question, it's between calling and folding, what would you do?
I would fold pre
Gutshot in a big pot Quote
01-14-2016 , 01:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CamNewton3
I'd like to add that it's a really weak 1/2 table and some players might be calling 50$ with two overs, even CO could have like AK...
Do you know what our equity is against AK?
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01-14-2016 , 01:55 AM
lol @ shoving or calling here. Really...
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01-14-2016 , 03:16 AM
I don't like anything about this hand. Fold pre, fold to 3b, fold postflop. Just fold, with all due respect.
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01-14-2016 , 03:33 AM
This whole hand is spew if you didn't fold flop (except MAYBE the $10 pre if UTG+1 is very deep and liable to stack off a lot or you expect a ton of calls behind who will stack off light). If someone has 78, 79, or 99 you're drawing dead. If someone else is spewing with JT or T6, you're also drawing effectively dead given the multiway pot.
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01-14-2016 , 04:59 AM
only call i agree with is calling the 3bet getting 7:1 or 8:1 if we assume HJ is calling and not shoving 100% of the time, which is probably close to true
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01-14-2016 , 08:46 AM
I don't mind the preflop play but the flop is 100% a fold.
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01-14-2016 , 09:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beanfacekilla
I don't like anything about this hand. Fold pre, fold to 3b, fold postflop. Just fold, with all due respect.
This.

Snap fold. Drawing to a low end of a straight on a paired board? No chance in hell.
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01-14-2016 , 11:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
lol @ shoving or calling here. Really...
I said calling or folding, not shoving ...
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01-14-2016 , 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WereBeer
Do you know what our equity is against AK?
I do! And even if we are way behind, we would have way more than the pot odds needed!
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01-14-2016 , 11:10 AM
For the preflop play, it might be a bit -EV but I'm not sure, I know I can stack off light, players were passive and calling opening bets a lot.

OTF I did indeed fold pretty quickly, I just wanted to know what you think about it, I don't think it was that of an easy decision. (Maybe I just started questioning my play when I saw the rest of the hand lol, turn came an 8, UTG shoved, HJ called and CO ended up winning with his pocket JJ, so I would have won it all lol). Still think it was a good fold.
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01-14-2016 , 03:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CamNewton3
I do! And even if we are way behind, we would have way more than the pot odds needed!
My point is, you are crushed by AK, which is a lol bad hand for your opponents to do this with and consequently it's at the worst end of any reasonable range. Saying 'they could even have AK!' is kind of odd when you're a huge dog to it.
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01-14-2016 , 04:09 PM
I get you point, but winning equity means nothing without pot equity
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01-14-2016 , 04:13 PM
calling pre is fine, but you should fold to the 3!
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