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Gross spot; fold 2nd nuts? Gross spot; fold 2nd nuts?

12-12-2018 , 06:09 PM
wow. don't fold pre. do not flat his river bet.

folding to river 3bet in most LLSNL games is usually best

Last edited by jc315; 12-12-2018 at 06:35 PM.
Gross spot; fold 2nd nuts? Quote
12-12-2018 , 06:40 PM
I'm the first to be skeptical of claims sometimes made here that you can consistently make like 80k a year at 1/3. However, a college kid should be able to use excellent game selection and clear $20/hr without being insanely good, and that's quite nice for a part time college job.

Someone doing that is probably not really in the business of getting random opponents to fold flushes. So I would write off the Ad blocker stuff.

More likely, he understands that most players struggle to fold any flush here and will consider shoving some lower flushes for value. I'd expect you to raise flushes much of the time, and to fold to a shove pretty infrequently. I say this is more likely than him shoving a naked Ad, but that doesn't mean it is very likely. River 3bets are still very nutty.

The stack depth, the large initial river bet, the fact that he was the PFR and the snap shove all point to the nuts, however.

It's very tough, but I think a fold is OK.
Gross spot; fold 2nd nuts? Quote
12-12-2018 , 11:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ES2
I'm the first to be skeptical of claims sometimes made here that you can consistently make like 80k a year at 1/3. However, a college kid should be able to use excellent game selection and clear $20/hr without being insanely good, and that's quite nice for a part time college job.

Someone doing that is probably not really in the business of getting random opponents to fold flushes. So I would write off the Ad blocker stuff.

More likely, he understands that most players struggle to fold any flush here and will consider shoving some lower flushes for value. I'd expect you to raise flushes much of the time, and to fold to a shove pretty infrequently. I say this is more likely than him shoving a naked Ad, but that doesn't mean it is very likely. River 3bets are still very nutty.

The stack depth, the large initial river bet, the fact that he was the PFR and the snap shove all point to the nuts, however.

It's very tough, but I think a fold is OK.
Oh I don't know if he's making 80K! That's a lot for low stakes grinding! And he is usually a 2/5 player, where I've only dabbled in, which is why I've never really played with this guy even though I see him around and heard about him from other regs. It's just that the 1/3 game is often the biggest game in town except on Friday and Saturday nights.

He also plays a fair bit online, but I don't now what stakes or for how much profit.

He said his friend at the same university is crushing 2000NL on Pokerstars for $200+ per hour, and live games are worthless to his time! Who knows if that's true or not, but man, that would be a lot of money for a 20 year old student to be making!
Gross spot; fold 2nd nuts? Quote
12-13-2018 , 08:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by StinkHolePatrol
He could be doing this with literally any diamond combo. You mention Q high, a backdoor 3 high flush is good 999999% of the time. And he is not a scared nit and wants to get value unlike you.

He folded the winner.

I've never been so appalled at anything in my life.


Trying to masterfully dodge sick .01% coolers is not going to make you money in this game.
This isn’t even sound from a GTO perspective let alone exploitatively against people who aren’t raising enough. Pio doesn’t even 3 bet the river in a heads up pot keeping the action the same with the Q high flush let alone all flushes. If anything the ranges should be stronger since in reality we are in a multiway pot on the turn.

What exactly do you think hero’s value raise range is here on the river?

You do also realize villain has more combos of ace high flushes than queen high flushes right? It’s very unlikely he has more than 3 combos of Q high flushes and he might have literally every of A high flushes.
Gross spot; fold 2nd nuts? Quote
12-13-2018 , 08:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by StinkHolePatrol
He could be doing this with literally any diamond combo. You mention Q high, a backdoor 3 high flush is good 999999% of the time. And he is not a scared nit and wants to get value unlike you.

He folded the winner.

I've never been so appalled at anything in my life.


Trying to masterfully dodge sick .01% coolers is not going to make you money in this game.
This isn’t even sound from a GTO perspective let alone exploitatively against people who aren’t raising enough. Pio doesn’t even 3 bet the river in a heads up pot keeping the action the same with the Q high flush let alone all flushes. If anything the ranges in real life should be tighter since in reality we are in a multiway pot on the turn.

K high flush isn’t a bad call but the 3 betting the river here for value with an 8 high flush against population is lighting money on fire.
Gross spot; fold 2nd nuts? Quote
12-13-2018 , 07:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick
...........
It's $430 to call, and the pot is $720. We need 430/(430 + 720) = 0.374% equity..........
What's your 0.374% fart invention for
Gross spot; fold 2nd nuts? Quote
12-13-2018 , 10:42 PM
Not sure if trolling or asking a real question rudely.
Gross spot; fold 2nd nuts? Quote
12-14-2018 , 12:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GooGoo6040
What's your 0.374% fart invention for
See The Grinder's Manual by Peter Clarke, Chapter 7: "Facing Bets - End of Action Spots"
Gross spot; fold 2nd nuts? Quote

      
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