Quote:
Originally Posted by canadiasian
Therefore, as played, whether exploitable or not, I think this is a fold.
Did he tank before re-raising all-in - did you get any live reads?
No live reads. He tanked a bit in his initial bet, likely figuring out the right size, but after I raised, it was an instant all-in that looked like "I know you're never folding now, just put it in." And I'm like "are you really doing this with a smaller flush than mine?" I could have been completely wrong, but I just couldn't see it from this particular player. He can't have QJs because I have the J, he can't have Q9s because that would've been an obvious flop bet, so 1 single combo of QT vs all the combos of Axs? Everyone's screaming "you have such good odds to call." But do I? Count the combos here; I'm pretty sure this is a losing call on paper and in practice.
I snap call this all day long against any typical low stakes player, but I could not see this guy who's paying his university tuition through poker bluff re-raising someone at 1/3 or 3-bet jamming the river with a small flush. I fully expect 3rd nuts or lower to call my raise, not re-raise.
How many low stakes players bluff-raise or even bluff bet the river? Overfolding to big river bets is one of the key exploitable adjustments that strong live low stakes players make because the typical player waaaaaaaaaaaay underbluffs on the river.
Yes I agree that I played this too passively on the turn only. I don't know why 2 overs and 1 diamond makes a mandatory flop bet; checking there is fine I think. We're at 1/3. This villain wouldn't, but there was another player in and people call the flop with bottom pair or nothing at all. I don't think getting into the habit of betting that thin on the flop is a good idea. I can't count the number of times I've bet the flop on the button after it's checked around, and then every single player in the hand calls.
But I should've raised the turn; I missed a good semi-bluff spot there for sure.
Last edited by GuitarDean; 12-12-2018 at 02:39 AM.