That's how the forums are; you'll get used to it .

And don't

Superb hand recount. Every OP should be this clear.

Where did you play this hand at? Austin?

Completely agree with your assessment of the hand. It is either a bluff or he has the nuts, but know way is he value betting a lesser hand here.

As played, the right play is to lay the hand down. For him to bet out with just the naked A on the turn with the intention of outplaying you OTR because he knows you can't have the nut flush is just way too FPS. But almost getting 3:1, could I lay down the second nuts? I dunno. I would probably call if I got some live tells of weakness.

KJs is definitely not a mandatory 3-bet, especially not at $1-$3. Why risk getting 4-bet and having to fold? 3-betting here is likely to either fold everyone out of the hand, or get called/re-raised by better hands (KQ+).

If we respect this guy's game we are also allowed to fold pre. KJs is not exactly a premium hand and I can get behind a 3bet or fold outlook.

Just for the record, OP, I would be highly suspicious of the "fact" that someone is paying all their bills and their college tuition playing 1/3.

Thanks G, I honestly didn't know that about SPR. Makes a lot of sense.
Going back to study that c r a p again! Thought I was long done with school. Felt unsure about referencing it, for the fact that they're pretty deep stacked.
I agree, Hero is more than likely toast in that spot.
That's why I'd never put myself in that spot. Villain is showing strength by betting. I'd only ever raise for value if I was ready to call off my whole stack. I have some rules I live by on the felt and one is, not to invest half my stack in a hand and fold.

I generally hate the way hero played the hand.

I fold preflop. Should likely be avoiding almost every spot that involves the professional (even in position) especially with a dominated hand. If limpers are going to call and they are complete morons, ok, more argument for calling. Make sure we are aware of where our money comes from.

I also check behind on the flop.

Turn is iffy too, mostly because we're up against the pro. I'm assuming we're going to rep the OESD if it comes in too.

I think I might lean to just calling the river. Again, this guy is a pro, is he really paying off with worse enough? And opening ourselves up to a reraise sucks. As played, I fold, as for these stacks and the fact that river raises are often nuttish (and yet this guy doesn't seem to care), imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Call this off all day.

He could have the nut straight or more likely any other diamond combo here. He's not going to be scared of flush over nut flush back door because no one is except apparently everyone in this thread.

I can seriously maybe recount one time in the last year where I was second nut flush over nut flush back doored. Many hands had action similar to this one.

You can just never fold here unless it's 500bb's +.


This shouldn't even be a thread. Villain probably told all his friends about how soft his table of scared nits was today.

I have no idea what games you are playing in where recs, who have given no indication that they are a whale, are raising the river here for value with a hand other than a flush at any meaningfully high frequency and then calling a shove with worse than a flush.

Something being unlikely to happen in a vacuum isn’t the same as something being unlikely once certain other things happen. You can’t ignore the action and just think about how many times something has happened over the course of the year. The better question is: how many times have you observed a river 3 bet that wasn’t a super nutted hand.

The only bluff hand I can think of Villain turning up with in this spot is Ad5x, assuming he would iso raise pre with A5os with two limpers in front.

The rest of the action makes sense - check flop, betting a turned double-gutshot draw, making a big bet with his straight on the river, and then turning it into a bluff.

Otherwise I think he has AdXd the rest of the time.

Therefore:
1. Most people generally would not 3! all-in here without at least the Ad in their hand so I would range him with all possible AdX hands.
2. If he is a decent player, I think if he is raising pre with A5os with two limpers, it needs to be a larger sizing, so I am inclined to believe he has the nut flush more often here.
3. In my experience, most of the time in these spots, I see nuts over second nuts.

Therefore, as played, whether exploitable or not, I think this is a fold.

Did he tank before re-raising all-in - did you get any live reads?

The flop checked around, so... probably don't want to apply any of those "backdoor flush" heuristics to river decisions in this hand. Both H and V have plenty of diamonds in their ranges. (Which makes me want to fold; it's very unlikely V is 3b jamming Qxdd or worse for value.)

not going to entertain the A of d blocker idea, I think this guy knows he has no FE in this spot after you raised him ; however many players at these stakes overvalue their hands on the river... if he see's you as a random 1/3 player I think he could be shoving here for value with a smaller flush..given the price we're getting OTR i'm sticking this in;


Its okay to feel the pain lol at least we see his cards and can use this info to range him more accurately in the future ; and we may be good enough of the time here for this to be profitable if he is ripping Q high flushes here

this whole hand seems way to passive to me, pre flop we pretty much have a monster with suited KJ on the button to what should be a pretty wide raising range, seems like going to 65 here is printing money, so I'm 3betting about 50% of the time

the other 50% of the time I'm BETTING THIS FLOP!

this flop just crushes your cold calling range, also you will win the pot by betting so often on this layout, single pairs are usually folding, any back door is good here, we can bet with just one diamond, why are we calling the button at all if we don't stab this flop? seems like it makes flatting pre bad

turn, seems like a great spot to put in a raise, again, this flop just nails us, this is like the worst hand we raise with so definitely raising the turn if not betting the flop or 3betting pre

cmon man, be AGGRESSIVE somewhere other than when you hit second nuts and hands become easier to play

river is a shrug call

He could be doing this with literally any diamond combo. You mention Q high, a backdoor 3 high flush is good 999999% of the time. And he is not a scared nit and wants to get value unlike you.

He folded the winner.

I've never been so appalled at anything in my life.


Trying to masterfully dodge sick .01% coolers is not going to make you money in this game.

these. betting flop is fine when it contains a diamond

Holy Jesus, this thread opened a can of worms... I've rarely seen so many strong opposite opinions.

No live reads. He tanked a bit in his initial bet, likely figuring out the right size, but after I raised, it was an instant all-in that looked like "I know you're never folding now, just put it in." And I'm like "are you really doing this with a smaller flush than mine?" I could have been completely wrong, but I just couldn't see it from this particular player. He can't have QJs because I have the J, he can't have Q9s because that would've been an obvious flop bet, so 1 single combo of QT vs all the combos of Axs? Everyone's screaming "you have such good odds to call." But do I? Count the combos here; I'm pretty sure this is a losing call on paper and in practice.

I snap call this all day long against any typical low stakes player, but I could not see this guy who's paying his university tuition through poker bluff re-raising someone at 1/3 or 3-bet jamming the river with a small flush. I fully expect 3rd nuts or lower to call my raise, not re-raise.

How many low stakes players bluff-raise or even bluff bet the river? Overfolding to big river bets is one of the key exploitable adjustments that strong live low stakes players make because the typical player waaaaaaaaaaaay underbluffs on the river.

Yes I agree that I played this too passively on the turn only. I don't know why 2 overs and 1 diamond makes a mandatory flop bet; checking there is fine I think. We're at 1/3. This villain wouldn't, but there was another player in and people call the flop with bottom pair or nothing at all. I don't think getting into the habit of betting that thin on the flop is a good idea. I can't count the number of times I've bet the flop on the button after it's checked around, and then every single player in the hand calls.

But I should've raised the turn; I missed a good semi-bluff spot there for sure.

Agree that flop should be a bet, most PFRs by checking 4 way are waving the white flag and it will basically almost always buy you a free river. If you get raises you were toast anyway. Live players dont bluff raise enough either so theres no worry for rhat and weights the decision more towards bet, pfrs also dont protect their checking range at all that much

Don't raise the river. If you do them don't fold after betting 50% of stack. When you raised $300 OTR you should know you got committed. So, why fold? .. after raising? - WTF,.. don't raise. Just call him.

I'm not in love with a flop bet 4ways with no pair + no draw when the limp/callers could easily be checking anything to the preflop raiser. Much more reason to take a stab at this pot in a limped pot (where the EP players will often play a lot more honestly instead of checking to the raiser).

GimoG

Results?

See post #4

I wouldn't read too much into this guy's story as a poker professional. As others have pointed out, that can be puffed up quite a bit. There are some months we all run good and might tell people we paid the bills with poker.

Two things that resonate much more strongly are the betting pattern and the timing tell. All else aside, big bets talk. The overall betting pattern itself is very much consistent with a backdoor nut flush. The tank-bet and the insta-AI also ring out loud. It could be that he thought in advance how he'd react to a raise (most people would be at least a little stunned) but it's too much of a parlay to think he did all of this with the A blocker and some other card. Good fold.

I dont think folding is necessarily wrong but there are certain pros who will try to run over a player until it fails or if they sense any weakness, it's not always about having it or the nut blocker.

time vs money

I'm no expert on advanced reads, I would just shrug call here because the odds are correct, but if he goes to college, he doesn't have time to only reshove the nuts here

I know there are some pro's in the room where I think this is a fold. These are guys that have nothing else going on and play 30 hour sessions and line up their chips in neat little piles because there is nothing else to do but nut peddle.

There is actually merit here to folding to a pro if he is spending 60 hours at the casino. A lot of times you can tell by the color of their face, the more white it is the more you can fold

that being said, I do not know any 1/3 pros and am not convinced there is such a thing, therefore always call here imo

my two sense

Count combos. How many AdXd's can the villain have? How many combos with a bare Ad? How likely is this villain to bluff a bare Ad blocker?

It's $430 to call, and the pot is $720. We need 430/(430 + 720) = 0.374% equity.

If (# bare Ad combos) * (bluffing likelihood) / (# AdXd combos) > 0.374, we should call.

(IMHO, river bluff 3-bet jam frequency at 1-3 is generally quite low, so that would make this an exploitative fold.)