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Be greedy or play it safe? Be greedy or play it safe?

02-11-2015 , 10:39 PM
[PHP][/PHP]Welcome all. This is my first post on the forums though i have been reading a number of threads for a few months. Figured I would learn more if I actually posted. I had just sat down maybe 20 minutes prior. I had some reads on the players which i firmed up later over evening but didnt know at the time

V1. 30yo african american guy. ($600) Nice stack of chips in front of him. Gave off vibe of being solid. Loose aggressive player. Played lots of hands preflop and seemed to either fold out competition with aggression or show two pair or better.
V2 60yo caucasian guy. ($200)Seemed like an average 1/2 player which means that he has some hand reading skill but overvalues TPTK Willing to show some aggression but also calling off fair amount of chips with medium strength hands
V3 60yo african american guy. ($200) Loose player and likes to play pots
Hero ($200) 40 yo asian guy who hadnt played many hands up to then

1/2
Pre-flop
V1 UTG limps, V2 UTG +1 raises to $12, 2 callers, Hero on button calls with 55, V3 In BB calls, ,V1 calls

Flop ($73) J 8 5 rainbow
V1 bets $40, V2 calls, 2 Middle position callers fold, big blind pre-emptively wants to put in chips, but hero hasnt acted so he pulls them back

Hero ?? My question is whether I should raise for a nice-sized pot, or take another line with higher risk but maybe higher reward.

Possible lines
1. Reraise by 80. I likely have best hand.. Would only leave $50 behind so my stack made the bet seem awkward. I could reraiseall in to $180 instead of $120
2. Flat call? What am i afraid of ? Inside straight draws? One combination of an open ended staright draw? A pocket pair hitting a higher set? I would only have $150 behind in a big $230 pot and likely will still have best hand on turn. Seems likely that I would get another lead in bet and considering the size of the pot, it would like be sizable. I am guaranteed the bb caller behind me. I am not that deep stacked and a flop,call might induce soome tasty turn action. I would be very uncertain whether i am ahead whatever turn card fell but i would precommit my stack and risk it for the extra payoff.
Hmm in retrospect. I would be risking $150(my chips) + $190 (pot) so $340 for a chance to get another $150-200 in pot
I normally wouldnt consider it but the cards were two gappers and no flush draw out there
3. Mini reraise to $80? Try to get over cards to belive they are priced into calling? Any inside straight draws are definitely priced in correctly which is bad. Get a jack with good kiicker to try to catch a card? I would be giving up any chance of a lead in bet by V1 or V2 but would only have around $100 behind so would be easier to get a stack committment for another 100 if i bloated pot by another 120 to 310. A turn bet of 100 into a 320 pot might induce lots of hands from top pair to overcards to call to a turned two pair to call. Of course a turned flush or straight draw would be correct to call as well It seemes like a suspicious "please call me" reraise so only bad players would call? Or a good player with the correct pot odds which is a bad thing?

I would be comfortable with the extra variance if it was a good long term play

Last edited by Garick; 02-11-2015 at 11:03 PM. Reason: removed results
Be greedy or play it safe? Quote
02-11-2015 , 11:09 PM
Hi, OP. Welcome to the forum. I removed the results, as they tend to bias people's analysis. Please don't say what you did for at least 24 hours.

This board is bone-dry. What would you want to raise out, charge to draw? Only 9T as far as I can tell. Any raise likely loses you BB, so that's $40 lost in the pot right there. That's how much more you would get out of UTG V with a min-raise, so why bother? A big raise gets you folds from everything but bigger sets, so you maximize your losses while minimizing your gains.

As you said yourself, if you flat, Pot will be $230 and you'll only have $150 left. Super easy to GII on the turn.
Be greedy or play it safe? Quote
02-11-2015 , 11:32 PM
Dream spot. Call on the flop. The pot will be big enough on the turn to shove. Your hand is strong enough on the dry board to wait one street before getting it in.
Be greedy or play it safe? Quote
02-11-2015 , 11:39 PM
I'll take a shot:

Your stack size was a little marginal to call a $12 raise for set-mining but, hey, the set appeared and - joy - you have a nice donk bet and flat before your action.

1. I don't like the raise with your stack size. First, after the donk and flat you're telling everyone you have at least 2 pair, probably a set, and they can then evaluate their own holdings and correctly fold their single pairs and maybe even two pair hands, which you'd rather have hang around to bleed more chips. The board is so dry there are very few combos that you would need to raise to deny drawing odds.

2. I like a flat, especially because BB appeared to be ready to toss in more chips - let him donate them. Your set is somewhat disguised, you're new to the table so you could be just another weak-passive with Jx so V1 or V2 likely donks the turn, and it leaves you enough behind for your turn shove to make any river draws think about their odds with just one card to come.

It's no use worrying about an overset because with your stack size you should be going to the felt if you can regardless.

Definitely flat, let BB call (and if he raises, shove), then shove the turn pretty much regardless of the turn card.

If someone catches an inside straight or fills two pair - oh, well, reload.

If you raised I'm guessing you most likely folded everyone out, or if they had enough hand to call then you lost to an overset.
Be greedy or play it safe? Quote
02-12-2015 , 12:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Naked
Rather than give us reads that you developed after the hand, just tell us what you knew when this took place. Remember that poker is about partial information and making educated guesses. So by giving us the full reads you make this thread not as helpful to yourself. It's nice to be able to review and hand and learn about it after the fact, but you also need to get betting at the processing pieces of info part or poker. The answers you get here won't help you with that.

And if you didn't have anything yet just saying unknown and giving a basic profile of their look and your best guess, and why that's your guess, is fine.
Btw, solid first post.
Grunch,
PF is a perfect set-mine, especially considering V2 is an average player and raised UTG+1. He obviously has a real hand here so you likely get some legit implied odds plus lots of dead money.

OTF, calling or jamming could both be fine. You mention raising small in your OP but that is usually the worst of both worlds since it shows you're committed to the hand looks kinda value-ish. Unless these players are supremely bad I don't like it.
Flatting is sorta fine because most players here are drawing very thin to beat you. But I'd just jam here with a 90% freq.

Edit: So if you call and the Bb calls the turn pot will be $310 and you'll have a stack of $150 in a 6-way pot. Which means you can never fold turn since you have redraw odds even if beaten (3.5-1). If the turn is checked to you and you jam you'll be offering the first V (BB) 3-1. And then V1 (UTG+1) is getting 4-1. Waterfall effect ect... I'm still not a fan of flatting flop.
Flop Jam>Min raise>flat, IMHO

Last edited by Naked; 02-12-2015 at 01:00 AM.
Be greedy or play it safe? Quote
02-12-2015 , 01:10 AM
Quote:
So if you call and the Bb calls the turn pot will be $310 and you'll have a stack of $150 in a 6-way pot.
??? pot will be $230 in a 4-way pot. you forgot that the two in between V2 and Hero folded.
Be greedy or play it safe? Quote
02-12-2015 , 12:08 PM
If I was last to act, I might min raise, but waiting a street is fine given stack sizes, and another caller who wants to put chips in.

Getting stacks in is trivial and unavoidable.
Nice hand.
Be greedy or play it safe? Quote
02-12-2015 , 02:04 PM
Chuckle. Thanks moderator and everyone for the replies. I am too excited to wait on posting so wanted to post a reply. Will wait longer next time .

I reraised to $120 from the button and everyone folded. I kindof did a standard reraise with best hand but wanted some callers so didn't go all in and didn't really think about all my options.

In retrospect, I like the flat calling much better than a large reraise or even a mini-reraise. Even with 3 other players in hand, There are probably only 4-10 outs among all of them that beat out my set. The other players would be likely be calling with hands like:
1. Pair on flop ( J or an 8). No outs on turn that beat me. I am hoping they hit and make 2 pair so they want to committ more chips.
2. Pocket pair (2 outs per player with pocket pair that is higher than mine. If they hit a miracle card, oh well)
3.Inside straight draw with overcard or undercards with 4 outs (Q9 or QT or 79 or 7T)
4.Overcards to flop (AK, AQ) No outs on turn.
5. 2 pair or set (doesn't matter if I raise or flat call, its probably all going in the middle anyway).
Small gamble 8-20% of losing pot, for likely a large gain $150 (my stack)/$340 (my stack +pot I am not taking down immediately).

I thought about the hand through evening and regretted not taking more of a gamble. I just kindof just did my standard "I have best hand so I should reraise" thing. Brings up the question of what to do next time. How wet of a flop is too wet to just flat call. Possible flush draw makes it more dangerous to just flat especially as a 3rd flush card will kill any action, but I don't think it is wrong anymore to just flat even with 2 cards to a flush on board. It would be gambling/risky but isn't that why we play. i.e to gamble when the odds favor us.

Even so, next time, I would probably reraise a wetter board because I tend to take a fairly conservative route, but would just flat a dry board or one a little wetter than this one.
Be greedy or play it safe? Quote
02-12-2015 , 03:00 PM
I call here and jam on the turn. No matter what
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02-12-2015 , 07:49 PM
76 is also an OESD, 97 is double gutted?
Be greedy or play it safe? Quote
02-12-2015 , 07:50 PM
With that said... I'm still tempted to flat. Especially if I see someone behind me ready to put in more chips.
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