Was happy with my game last night at card room, playing 1/2. Want to learn as much as I can from this hand. This game is not super strong. 3 of the players are very gambly. They don't like to fold and almost always call raises pre flop if they limped in. 8-9 handed

Relevant Villain: I have played with him one time before. He has a large stack, around 400, from winning this current session. He is raising almost every hand he plays to $7. I am trying to play back at him. I three bet his usual pre flop raise earlier and won the hand right there. I think knows that I am not gambly like other players at table and if I am putting money into the hand that I think my hand is valuable.

Under the gun is me with KK - I raise to $7. This is the standard raise I have been making all night. Thought about more but maybe that would have been too obvious. Looking back a larger raise would have been better because I get 3-4 callers.

Villain calls on button.

Flop comes 5 6 7 rainbow.

I lead out for $27

Get 2 calls, and villain raises to $87.

I think that the 2 callers are most likely not that strong and will fold if I 3 - bet, so I do to $167. I only have $22 behind now

Villain goes all in.

My thoughts: raise more pre flop, good lead out on the flop, good instincts that middle position players will fold although bad 3-bet. Better to fold to the raise on the flop.

I had seen villain play a lot of drawing hands. Thoughts?

As predicted, 2 callers in middle position fold

I'd raise more pre

Once he raises the flop I'm done with the hand. You said he knows that when you put money into the pot you are strong and he still raises you. Fold

Why did you leave yourself $22?

We are around 40% against a range of sets, 2pr, combo draws, and over pairs TT-88.

Raise more pre. Your standard raise UTG (with your whole range) at a loose gamble happy game should be at least $12, and likely $15.

Fold the flop.

Raise more pre, like $12 or so. Since this is 1/2, generally speaking players aren't observant has much if you were raising $7 then suddenly raise $12 or whatever. They are playing their two cards and thats it.

Bet fold Flop.
If you call or 3bet there is a pretty good chance your behind.

...Yup
And no **** yeah, the middle position players are going to fold even though the 3bet is awful unless they have pretty much exactly the nuts, this is pretty much the strongest line possible OTF


!!!200!!!

This is a terrible flop for you. This is a "SUPER CONNECTED" board. Read this post on hand reading: http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...fpart=all&vc=1

But with villian reraising it so much on a rainbow board does offer the possibility the villain is pushing a draw really, really hard.

One thing you didn't mention is how aggressive the villain is. It's really important for hand reading, have you seen him bluff or get aggressive with his draws?

Villain most likely has 2 pair, pair + draw or just a draw. Villain doesn't seem that good, so he's probably not thinking about your range, and maybe he has a set and is afraid of you drawing out on him. I don't think he has the straight yet.

Anyway, when he raises it to about $90, there's about $60 in the pot, which makes the pot about $150 and you need to call about $60 more, so we're getting: 5:2 odds. This means we need a 30% chance to win to call.

If you're up against a set you have an 11% chance to win by river and need to fold.

If you're up against 2 pair, you have slightly less than a 30% chance to win by the river, so this is a fold.

If you're up against a pair + combo draw, you're greater than 54% and can call.

If you're up against a draw you have a 58-67% depending on whether his kicker is an ace.

If you're up against a random bluff, you're 70%+ to win.

Without knowing how aggressive the villain is, it's hard to put him on a possible hand. If he's aggressive with his draws we can call, if he's more likely to call with them, then he probably has 2 pair and is trying to protect his hand.

This is a really tough spot.

To estimate our total winning probability we multiply an estimated probability of a hand by the chance to win against said hand, and then add it all up.

15% pure draw * .6
25% pair + draw * .54
40% 2 pair * .28
10% set * .11
5% bluff * .7
5% straight * .03
= .15*.6 + .25 * .54 + .4*.3 + .1*.11 + .05*.7 + .05*.03 = 40%.

I gave the villain a lot of draws, if we bumped up his 2 pair percentage to 80% of the time:
= .05*.6 + .15 * .54 + .8*.28 = 33ish%.

So you're still not looking terrible. I don't know, this is a rough spot. Why would he reraise with a straight? He probably won't. He could reraise with a set though... Ugh.. Whys he raising so much? It seems like he wants you have fold... A loose preflop player will also generally be aggressive postflop..

I say this is a reshove... go all in.

Personally, your reads are level 3 and what we really need are level 2 reads. You've told us about what he thinks of you. We don't know anything about him. Sure he's raising every hand he plays, but how many hands are that? Is he cbetting a lot on the flop? If he is, is he giving up after the flop if he has air? Does he over value TP?

In this situation, you've bet big into a bunch of players, so you clearly have an over pair. There's been two callers after you. Therefore, he shouldn't have much expectation of getting everyone to fold. A call with a draw is getting direct odds. No reason to jam since a 2 or 9 isn't going to raise everyone's alarm. The pot is getting big enough that even a OP can't fold.

I can lay this down on the flop after the raise based on no reads. My only point is that we shouldn't be without reads in this situation.

In a 4-way pot even if Villains are playing any two cards you're going to lose this pot 65% of the time even when an ace doesn't fall on the turn or river. If you don't improve to a set you're going to lose over 70% of the time.

Your goal needs to be to find out whether you're ahead as cheaply as possible. Bet fold about 20 on the flop. No need to overbet.

Spend some time with Poker Stove.

this is a terrible board for 2 kings here.

Can't really tell how good villain is. He is playing around 30% of hands this session (while is up around 2 buy ins) and raising about 25%. He was the biggest stack at the table by far, with many short stacked players (was $60 max buy in night). Felt like everyone was letting him get away with running the table.

I played a hand with him earlier in the night where I bet middle pair on the flop and he called with a gutshot. Checked the rest of the hand down and won it. So he does play drawing hands a lot of the time.

Does villain ever make this move with jacks? I'm guessing not, but that crossed my mind when I was deciding what to do.

Villain turns over 3 4 for a straight and tables it before I get the chance to call, trying to prevent me calling to try and pair the board if I have a set. I only have $22 behind at this point and fold face up. Even with pot odds, not good enough to try to catch running cards.

I was obviously distressed when making the raise. I was basically telling him I was weak. I think villain was afraid of losing the hand. Maybe of I go all in looking more collected he would have considered a fold, although that's a stretch.

You need some serious work on your game. Trying to portray tells is useless at the stakes you play at and your game would be beneficial by learning the math of the game than the useless psychology of it.

Also, you're only getting a fold like 1% of the time here. Doesn't really matter what villain has.

Thanks for helping me helper

Oof. The flop 3! is full projectile spew. Whats he going to over-bet/raise then call your bet with that we beat? If he's bluffing, do we want to blow him off the hand, or wouldn't it be better to flat and let him barrel the turn?

As stated above, barring an insightful soul-read I'm folding to the raise.

Right, looking back the 3 bet on the flop was a bad move. At the time I was thinking that I just wanted to see showdown with my kings if villain was drawing.