1/2, 10 player

utg: $200 -> young Chinese kid wearing sunglasses. new to table. no reads.
co: $110 -> somewhat tight passive
button (Hero 8 8): $300 -> TAG image, has not been caught bluffing


preflop:
utg straddles for $5, hj/co calls, hero raises to $25, blinds fold, utg calls, hj folds, co calls

flop ($78): 6 7 J
utg/co checks, hero bets $45, utg folds, co c/r all in, hero?

co pushed for $85. pot is now $208. It's $40 to call.
40/208 = 20% = 4:1 to call

I put him on a set, 67s for 2 pair, or 89 for a combo draw.
if he had AJ (and maybe even kj), he would have raised preflop.
I doubt he would c/r all in with QJ or TJ.


I have at least 3 outs -> set + runner runner straight. 3 x 4 = 12% to the river.
more if he has 2 pair. and I'm slightly ahead if he is on a combo draw.

wow.. Propoker Tools says I have 20% equity??

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

8,910 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 6 7 j

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
8c 8d	19.83%	1,758	18
6x7x,8h9h,66,77	80.17%	7,134	18

Apparently it's a call.

Any shortcuts in estimating my total equity besides memorizing a lot of Propoker Tools results?
or is having at least 12% equity close enough to 20% to call?

Dude, this is an auto-call.

What's the issue here?

How did you come to that conclusion?
I tanked for a min.

What was your thought process?

There isn't much thought process needed because this might be one of the easiest calls of all time.

Your range for V is way way way too narrow, and we're getting over 5:1. V can have all pair+draws, all draws, and even lol hands like A7 in his range.

208/40 = 5.2:1 odds, not 4:1?

should master the bet/call and not the c/fold in this hand...
you aren´t trolling with an 11year old account now, are you?

Yup, we only need 40/248 = 16.1% equity to call, OP, It's a snap.

Also, I'm a bit confused. What does the thread title mean, "got caught bluffing?"

Where did you get caught bluffing?

Yeah. How are you bluffing?
I cant see the problem here sorry.

Well the c/r is worse than guy open shoving but I'm still calling.

He would lead out with a jack most of the time. There are the uncommon instances where he checks a jack expecting you to c-bet, so he can c/r to get more money in the pot, but the board is coordinated. Even a tight-passive fish would be worried about the draw and think about "protecting" his jack.

This stinks of of FD that doesn't want to call, miss the turn and c/f, so he's closing his eyes with this c/r and hoping you fold, but if you call he's got outs so he's kind of OK with you calling as well.

What makes your decision easy has already been explained by browni and others.

First of all, you cannot equate continuing on a single weaker overcard flop with bluffing. You have a pair that is likely to be the current best most of the time.

5:1 is an autocall because a) V's range is wide open and b) it is terrible for your table image to much in this spot.

Yes he probably beats you at the end of this hand. When he shows the winner you can quietly muck and people will think you were reasonable for GII with the nut no pair at worst. Hell if he rolls over the straight or the flush by the end of the hand then it makes you look tighter/more solid.