MAWW ? whale or woman ? this is driving me crazy lol

She prolly isn't calling herself a whale tho. Solid read.

Of course (do you know me?). I should have made it MAWWW.

1/3 9-hand with player consistently straddling.

Great action game. Player to might immediate right is straddling $10 - $15 every hand and calling most raises. He had been raising or betting blind to $50, but that has calmed down. This requires me to be fairly selective.

The rest of the table is usually pretty fit/fold, but they are opening up a bit pre and hoping to hit against straddler. A few calling stations. No crazy, laggy players except the straddler.

Hero: MAWW, ~$1,400. Usually fairly straightforward and on the tight side, but playing looser in this game due to dynamics. Definitely willing to gamble with the guy to my right. Called a $50 raise pre in position earlier with A7, hit two 7s on flop and doubled up vs. V (who knew better but couldn’t fold his AA or KK or whatever he had). It was a funny hand because I told him I should fold pre as I called (LOL pot odds). I also raised him on the flop (two diamonds), so he could have gotten away – he says he had one diamond FWIW (not much).

V: YWG, covers. Pretty straightforward player, also on the tighter side and might be a little station-y (as seen with A7 hand). Tighter overall than Hero and isn’t the gambling type.

OTTH:
Straddler to $10
Hero (SB): AsKs raises to $50
V (MP): calls $50

Everyone else folds, which is amazing.

Flop ($105): Kd4s8c

Hero bets $60, V calls

I get the sinking feeling that he hit a set, but it’s a gut feeling. He could have AK, KQ, maybe QQ, JJ, TT. I just can’t figure out what he’s flatting with? There are basically no draws. It wasn’t a snap, but he didn’t take much time. Should I ever check this dry flop?

Turn ($225): Kd4s8c 3s

I’ve got the nut flush draw (and top/top, of course). Hero?

I agreed with many of you and bet $100. He flatted! I was going to call an average raise, probably up to $300 total ($200 raise). I was surprised at the flat, but now I'm not sure about my read of a set. I'm a little confused, actually.

River ($425): It's the beautiful 7s Kd4s8c3s

Hero?

Yes, that one time. You'd be surprised. It sounds like a great idea, but you get only so many hands that you can limp/3bet with. They are mostly waiting for straddler to raise, but if he flats, I've almost always wasted a good hand. Remember, he has slowed way down on the blind raises, etc. (He's getting crushed.)

If they raise and I 3bet, they are almost never folding, so can't really do it as a bluff. Most of them are raising good hands only.

And I wasn't joking when I said someone was mentioning the KK hand -- almost every time I limped, this one guy referred to it. Would love to shut him up, but I don't like to tap the glass.

My first reaction to the turn call was KQ. A small set probably puts out a flop raise. Two pair doesn't seem likely.

Then I thought about a suited connector, like 56. He might call 60 on the flop with a gutshot. Would he raise the turn, picking up another straight out and flush outs?

Make a small bet that he can call with KQ. If he has the straight or better, he will raise. I wouldn't reraise the river, if that is still an option.

If it wasn’t this V that you’ve described I think this would be a c/r spot.
Against this V I would go $200-225.

Worked out for you OTT. Cool.

Really tough to see what he flatted with OTT. Hopefully its a flush or a strong K.

1/2 pot.

You may well get 3 streets of value here if your read is wrong and he really has an underset. Bet 150 or so. You've back doored your flush which is disguised. If he has a set he might try to shove you off your hand. If he's put you on QQ he'll pay with KQ.

given the villain and your read I don't see anything wrong with a psb OTR or even a 1.5X psb

I would size for ‘standard’ value, 2/3rds PSB, probably $250 or so. Sucks if V has a set or flush instead of a K but I don't Think I’m game I could devise a smarter plan.

Just want to be clear that you’re talking about the river in your last sentence. You’re saying that if hero bets river and faces a raise, you advocate just calling? We lose to 1 combo of 56ss and that’s it

V either has a set OR has a hand that should only call 2 streets of value (unless he also has AK).

If you truly believe that V has a set, then you should just check. Sometimes you just have to trust your reads or intuitions and act on it.

In normal circumstances, I am leading turn roughly ($125 - $140). But if you bet and get raised, it's going to be in the $400 - $500 range and you won't have direct odds to call. Getting min-raised is just never gonna happen here against this player.

Checking is totally fine and you'll be in better shape odds/$$ wise moving forward to call a bet on the turn.

V could in theory think he has a 2 streets call/bet value hand with KQs and go for one street of value himself on the turn before checking back all rivers.

If you hit the flush, def lead. Otherwise check and either opponent checks back and you win OR fold to an opponent bet

Bet somewhere in the 40-50% pot size range. $175-200 sounds about right. I don't see villain calling much more than that, plus it gives V potential to raise. If we lead $275-$350 then the ability to raise becomes a whole lot less likely

Yeah, that’s specifically what I like about $200 or so.
It targets 3 streets of value from the king, but probably tempts the set or rivered flush to repop us. I think the call % drops drastically in this situation going from $200 to $300-350 and the reraise % drops to basically nothing.

No reason at all to think you are beat here. bet turn. it gives you more equity. very straightforward. if v raises anything standard, call and reevaluate based on river. you are near the top of your range. sets, AA, KK, then AK. v could have Kx, 99 - QQ, A with flopped pr. I would have bet around $150 ott. otr, $250. hope v has a set and get it in.

I think you guys are right that I should have bet river. However, it worked out fine. I checked, he bet $200, I raised to $600 total, and he tank called. MHIG vs. 44.

He was pretty upset with himself for slow-playing, but I did get pretty lucky. Wondering if he should have folded to my raise on river?

Are you ever bluff raising otr? How about KK? Since he called, my guess is no, you're not x/r otr.

So yes, he should have b/f otr.

In results oriented land, we now see why x/c ott was the right line.

Also, taking "bet, bet, check-when-I-hit" lines are costing you lots of #. Especially when your binked hand is well hidden like this.

When you have strong intuition type feelings opponents have monster hands, how often are you trusting that your reads accurate vs going against your intuition?

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Who says I always take this line? I did this time, and I'm pretty sure I got more than I would have with a bet. I think he flats with a set and folds almost everything else. He might tank/call with KQ. Not many flushes he should have, especially since I have the A and K.

He definitely should have folded to my check/raise, though. I will rarely do that as a bluff. I will do it with the naked As vs. a different player in a different scenario.

That exact river is one you should check alot

wp imo

Honestly, I find when I follow my gut I'm usually right. However, I play in a limited player pool and know most of the players pretty well.

I followed my gut this time on the river with the check, and it paid off. (Probably should have followed my gut on the turn, but the spade was so pretty and I wasn't positive he had a set, but my gut told me he did.)

Did someone say ch flop cuz thats...not good?

If you're betting turn then I like the smaller sizing. I also like the river check, it isn't like you're getting a third street from KJ and pocket pairs.

Getting raised OTT would be a disaster. So offering a small sizing which might induce a raise is not good.