1/3 9-hand with player consistently straddling.

Great action game. Player to might immediate right is straddling $10 - $15 every hand and calling most raises. He had been raising or betting blind to $50, but that has calmed down. This requires me to be fairly selective.

The rest of the table is usually pretty fit/fold, but they are opening up a bit pre and hoping to hit against straddler. A few calling stations. No crazy, laggy players except the straddler.

Hero: MAWW, ~$1,400. Usually fairly straightforward and on the tight side, but playing looser in this game due to dynamics. Definitely willing to gamble with the guy to my right. Called a $50 raise pre in position earlier with A7, hit two 7s on flop and doubled up vs. V (who knew better but couldn’t fold his AA or KK or whatever he had). It was a funny hand because I told him I should fold pre as I called (LOL pot odds). I also raised him on the flop (two diamonds), so he could have gotten away – he says he had one diamond FWIW (not much).

V: YWG, covers. Pretty straightforward player, also on the tighter side and might be a little station-y (as seen with A7 hand). Tighter overall than Hero and isn’t the gambling type.

OTTH:
Straddler to $10
Hero (SB): AsKs raises to $50
V (MP): calls $50

Everyone else folds, which is amazing.

Flop ($105): Kd4s8c

Hero bets $60, V calls

I get the sinking feeling that he hit a set, but it’s a gut feeling. He could have AK, KQ, maybe QQ, JJ, TT. I just can’t figure out what he’s flatting with? There are basically no draws. It wasn’t a snap, but he didn’t take much time. Should I ever check this dry flop?

Turn ($225): Kd4s8c 3s

I’ve got the nut flush draw (and top/top, of course). Hero?

125

As long as you don’t end this street by folding it can’t be too bad.
I don’t hate a check, I don’t hate a bet. I just hate getting blown off this hand ever, so don’t. The awkward thing is that if you check here and a spade hits, you’re either gonna have to lead the river (which I probably would against this specific V), or check/raise the river (hoping V does have set like you suspect and goes for value OTR).
I think all things considered I would bet approx. one black chip.

Bet/fold or bet/call?

I don’t think he can answer that question until he knows the price that is given.

Aren't we supposed to have a plan when we give advice?

Bet/call a min-raise and fold to a 3x raise? Something like that?

The main two things you have working against you here are that you’re OOP and that your description of V makes him seem reluctant to put himself in bloated pots without a huge hand. That is why I like a turn bet best, because you’re going to have to likely do the betting yourself if spade hits. May as well keep betting when you beat so much already.
If you check turn, call his raise and a spade hits I think you have to check/raise river.
If he raises your turn bet instead of flatting and you spike a spade are you planning on leading or check raising?

LOL. Let's get past the turn first.

Well yeah, but plans can change depending on bet sizing.
If he massively overbets it’s a way different situation than a minraise.

And if he minraises here he’s just super terribad.

I hear you, but my point is just that the way the turn plays out on a hand like this massively affects how you need to play the river.
I don’t mean to rush past the turn.
I was just curious of your/others thoughts on that specifically.

Yes, that's why I gave two options. Pretty simple.

prolly never folding turn

Is he the type to pay off three streets with KQ? If not I like c/c turn. If turn checks thru we bet river for value. If we c/c and river a spade, c/r

Once we get to the flop, as played, and with a V who is tighter then Hero, I'm not looking to build a big pot.

This is a very standard check otf for me, almost 300bb deep (I don't care about the straddle).

As played, x/c this turn. See if you can get two streets of value.

I'd happily b/f the river, but want to do it on a small pot.

Also, seems like a perfect spot to l/r pre.

There's no reason to think he has a set at the moment. There's way more 8x, Kx, QQ-99 hands than sets.

Turn I like a x/c for two reasons, one I think he bets worse when checked to a lot of the time, and two because it is awful to bet and get raised (not a likely thing to happen but it sucks bad when it does). I don't want to fold out hands that will stab when checked to but will fold to a bet. I like V to have a wide-ish range when we get to the river in this spot.

I guess this is really basic but if your spidey senses say he’s trapping with a set, by all means check the turn and play forward as appropriate based on the NFD. Hand isn’t too big to slow down with.

This feels results oriented to me like you obviously know what happened after the hand. Hard for me to believe if he just folded the turn you would have posted in about how your "spidey senses" were tingling.

Personally this hand is a clear bet to me, I would rather check without the flush draw as our hand is now robust enough to call a raise. I like a smaller sizing 100-125 as mentioned on account of the dryness of the board and to comfortably call a raise. We are hoping to get called by underpairs and weaker kings.

It’s actually really not that simple, but okay.

Nope. His flat on the flop had bells ringing, but as stated, it could be AK (a lot of these guys won't raise with that), KQ, QQ, JJ, etc. Not results oriented at all -- it was my read during the hand, which is the best I can give you guys.

I tried that earlier with KK and it limped around w/ about six people in the pot. I won the hand, but had to show, and now every time I limp, someone mentions the KK hand!!! Ugh.

Him being tighter and more passive preflop makes betting even better. If he's not 3 betting QQ or JJ pre that gives you a lot more hands that he will be able to call on the turn.

Just look at the math of how many combos of KQ, QQ-99 does he have vs flopped sets? Also if hes straightforward and tight that makes him less likely to slowplay a set.

So that one time...

I'd be l/r all sorts of stuff if they're going to be that fishy.

I'd bet small targeting pairs under K and weaker kings and leave myself room to call a raise with the NFD. $85

I'm in the C/C camp. Unimproved, depending on turn bet sizing by V, same on river unimproved, C/R if its a spade.

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