Live 2/5, around 1000 effective, button straddles to 10, SB folds, BB calls, 2 other callers, hero calls in the CO with K-9ss, button checks. Pot is 50.

Flop is Qc Jc Th. Checks to hero who bets 50. Button calls, everyone else folds. Pot is 150.

Turn is a small heart, making the board double suited. Hero bets 250 – overbetting because button should never have AK here given the pre-flop action, so we have the effective nuts OTT. But we’re also vulnerable to clubs, hearts, kings, and don’t like A’s, 9’s, and 8’s either because they kill action. That’s more than half the remaining deck.

Btn shouldn’t have any sets to continue with. 1 pair hands are probably done with the pot to any bet, while 2-pair may still call an overbet as rec players hate folding flopped 2-pairs. Small FD’s will fold but both A high and K high FD’s have nut straight outs so they may also continue. We can’t have AK either so 98 might call a turn overbet too.

Plan is to go for small value on rivers that leave us with the effective nuts since villain shouldn’t have a ton of hands to stack off with – we’re more likely to get a crying call on the river – and the big turn bet (if called) allows us to size up OTR. Check-call if a flush completes or the board pairs since both represent a potential bluffing opportunity for villain. Probably check/fold if a K comes since nut FD’s represent a decent portion of villain’s continuing range OTT.

What do you think of this reasoning?

If you’re overbetting turn you need to jam river on a blank vs a rec

Raise pre, as played $110 OTT & overbet most Rivers


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I feel like your line is extremely strong and is gonna fold out a lot of his hands you want in there. I guess it could work against a station.

I would go with a pot sized bet or slightly less.

I dont really see a good reason to overbet, would prefer xr to overbet.

I don't like the over-bet unless you are perceived as a bit of a maniac or a nit trying to protect. In the second instance, you might get called by someone hoping to crack you, but they'd have to have a pretty strong hand.

I play a bit more straight-forward and bet closer to pot on turn or check/raise.

Isn't going for a check-raise on the turn here extra risky? If it goes check-check instead, a large number of bad rivers for us.

I like the overbet, and strongly agree with Minatorr that you should be jamming river bricks, although I don't know why he says "against a rec." You should jam river bricks against strong players, too.

BU would have likely raised such a wet flop with a strong hand, so I don't like going for a x/r. Our hand is strong enough to overbet for value and the board is extremely wet, and we're OOP. Getting lots of folds is not so bad in a spot where villain's range really wants to see a river.

You can't say you're worried about losing everything we have crushed when you literally never overbet bluff here. It's a huge logical inconsistency that 99% of the forum posters here have.

In general you don't want to be x/r very often when you are the flop aggressor and the turn is a brick, and on wet boards the caller is often capped, making overbetting a reasonable strategy.

I think your range wants to go bigger on the turn here to both grab value (from Vs calling range which will shift almost exclusively to ~100% or 0% equity on the river after calling a turn overbet) and give +EV to your ‘bluffs’. If you’re playing a complete range on the turn this way then you will want to also shove rivers mostly which would be around a psb.

The alternative would be to bet smaller now with the same range and then overbet river, but I think that line delivers less EV overall.

Frankly, this is where theoretical and practical sizes really start to stray from one another. A practical approach would be less range based and more ‘I have the nuts and my opponent has draws and weak made hands and some made+draw hands’ - in this case a smaller size might actually make more money because you can get two streets from some hands and be able to have more river check calls (or folds against some unblanced nit) on bad rivers. If you are playing a range that will include bluffs and combo draws then an overbet ott is going to do better. It really does depend on your strategy, your range, and what you’re trying to accomplish.