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Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS?

06-29-2018 , 02:31 PM
Villain on the button is a 30’s male. I’ve seen him 3 bet AK before. In a previous session I donked river for pot against him with the nut flush blocker on Q53-9-8 where the 8 completed the flush and he folded 98 face up. OTTH:

Two limps, hero opens KJdd to $15 in the HJ, button flats and everyone else folds.

Pot: $30.

Flop KK7 two hearts.

Hero continues for $15, villain calls.

Turn 6h.

Pot:$60

Hero checks, villain bets $40, hero calls.

Pot:$140

River Ah

Hero checks, villain bets $55 hero moves in for $220 total.
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-29-2018 , 02:38 PM
I think you're toast here alot. Just call river.
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-29-2018 , 02:43 PM
Wish we were deeper to pull this off, but because of his small river sizing it's at least a viable option. Is it going to work >50% like we need it to, though? We kind of only rep AK or AA. You wouldn't check turn with 77 or 66. I'd like the c/jam river line better if we'd bet turn.

On balance, I don't think it'll work quite often enough when V only has to call $165 more.
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-29-2018 , 04:43 PM
FPS at these stacks and stakes. I think is very spewy to try and blow recs off of big hands at LLSNL.

It might work vs this player type, but I think he will be getting too good of a price to fold a 9h/Jh. But I also think you are never good here when you call.

Fold>>>>jam>>>>>>call
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-29-2018 , 05:00 PM
This is obv the nut turn card for us to bluff, but it just makes it so tough at this stack depth .

Wouldn't say it's spew, but I also don't expect it to get through a ton.
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-29-2018 , 05:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HomelessPizza
FPS at these stacks and stakes. I think is very spewy to try and blow recs off of big hands at LLSNL.

It might work vs this player type, but I think he will be getting too good of a price to fold a 9h/Jh. But I also think you are never good here when you call.

Fold>>>>jam>>>>>>call
I’m definitely in agreement that call is the worst option.
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-29-2018 , 08:28 PM
How is call here getting 4:1 bad? Fold is letting him get way too good of a price, I would call.

When you jam, it just looks like the bluff that it is. What are you checking the turn with to c/r river?
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-29-2018 , 08:34 PM
This is a bad combo to bluff. You don't block any full houses that he'll actually play this way. You do block worse Kx which be block-betting. Getting such a good price I'd call.

People way overestimate how often the other guy has a heart in this type of spot, which makes this a great bluffing card. Not a lot of hearts get to the river and the ones that do often don't value bet, fearing a better flush or full-house.
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-29-2018 , 10:20 PM
Just how stupid do you think the villian is? The only plasuable hand you could have is KxQh. His bet is either a suck bet (which he calls easily) or a bad blocking bet. So if you got a fold, congrats. You got lucky. But don't think you played well.
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-29-2018 , 10:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Just how stupid do you think the villian is? The only plasuable hand you could have is KxQh. His bet is either a suck bet (which he calls easily) or a bad blocking bet. So if you got a fold, congrats. You got lucky. But don't think you played well.
He could have AK, for the record. Or AA.
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-29-2018 , 10:50 PM
I'd continue barreling ott. We shouldnt be afraid of the flush HU, and we dont want to see another heart roll off otr. There's also plenty of value to be had.

OTR seems fine, esp since he cant have Ah or Kh. It's pretty hard for him to have a strong heart here unless it's specifically KxQh, and if he's going for thin value he's in a world of pain vs your jam
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-29-2018 , 10:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Just how stupid do you think the villian is? The only plasuable hand you could have is KxQh. His bet is either a suck bet (which he calls easily) or a bad blocking bet. So if you got a fold, congrats. You got lucky. But don't think you played well.
Why don’t I have boats in my range? There are 9 combos of AA, AK. I don’t think another combo of 66,77 or KK is out of the question as well.

And I don’t know if I played it well, poorly, or somewhere in between, that’s why I posted it. I thought it was the most profitable line in the moment, but I don’t claim to be a great player or an authority on poker.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 06-29-2018 at 11:04 PM.
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-30-2018 , 12:25 AM
I would never check the turn here, as you're so often letting all his 1 heart hands see a free river, I would just keep barreling or value.

On the river here, I probably puke fold this, even though you are getting a good price. I generally don't like trying to bluff people off big hands at these stakes, even though you can credibly rep a boat here. It's good that he folded the 98 hand, as I'd now have a read that I can at least run the occasional bluff in a good spot against this guy. I would probably take your image into consideration a bit here too. Have you been active but avoiding showdowns? If so, you're going to get looked up eventually, so I would tone down the bluffing frequency. If not, this one is at least worth the shot, although I probably would have played my hand as a bet/bet/shove if I was going to go with it.

In a vacuum this is a pretty neutral EV bet. On the plus side you block some boats, he's shown he has a fold button, and his river bet is weak. On the negative, he's getting a decent price, your line looks fishy, and he could have the nut flush.

He probably said "I figure you've got the boat but I've gotta call" when he sigh called.
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-30-2018 , 01:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
I would never check the turn here, as you're so often letting all his 1 heart hands see a free river, I would just keep barreling or value.

On the river here, I probably puke fold this, even though you are getting a good price. I generally don't like trying to bluff people off big hands at these stakes, even though you can credibly rep a boat here. It's good that he folded the 98 hand, as I'd now have a read that I can at least run the occasional bluff in a good spot against this guy. I would probably take your image into consideration a bit here too. Have you been active but avoiding showdowns? If so, you're going to get looked up eventually, so I would tone down the bluffing frequency. If not, this one is at least worth the shot, although I probably would have played my hand as a bet/bet/shove if I was going to go with it.

In a vacuum this is a pretty neutral EV bet. On the plus side you block some boats, he's shown he has a fold button, and his river bet is weak. On the negative, he's getting a decent price, your line looks fishy, and he could have the nut flush.

He probably said "I figure you've got the boat but I've gotta call" when he sigh called.
I probably have a pretty tight image, I haven’t shown down any bluffs in either session with him, but I don’t know how much he pays attention. I did 3 bet A5 against a whale, but I made a pair of 5’s on the turn and was able to check back turn and river and win the hand.
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-30-2018 , 01:56 AM
At these stakes sorry to say but FPS keep it simple
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-30-2018 , 07:43 AM
The more I think about it, the more I think V's range is capped and only mid-strength here. The question is, does your range look strong enough to beat that? I think it does. This could be AK that tried to get to a cheap showdown and then hit gin, could be a sticky AA, or even 66 or 77 (disagree that these hands always bet the turn, but would they then check twice? it's debatable).

As a general rule, you can't go too far wrong assuming people don't bluff-raise river. Even if he has the Qh here, is really finding a call? What the hell raises river here that isn't nutted? Surely medium strength hands c/c to get to showdown, right? At least that would be my thought process if I were the V. Considering this V is capable of big folds, I think this is a good spot to run your bluff. Maybe it's nitty, but I'm probably not calling this without a nutted range, and Qh isn't good enough.
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote
06-30-2018 , 07:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DormantShark
The more I think about it, the more I think V's range is capped and only mid-strength here. The question is, does your range look strong enough to beat that? I think it does. This could be AK that tried to get to a cheap showdown and then hit gin, could be a sticky AA, or even 66 or 77 (disagree that these hands always bet the turn, but would they then check twice? it's debatable).

As a general rule, you can't go too far wrong assuming people don't bluff-raise river. Even if he has the Qh here, is really finding a call? What the hell raises river here that isn't nutted? Surely medium strength hands c/c to get to showdown, right? At least that would be my thought process if I were the V. Considering this V is capable of big folds, I think this is a good spot to run your bluff. Maybe it's nitty, but I'm probably not calling this without a nutted range, and Qh isn't good enough.
Do not expect bad players to make the right folds. V will not fold his flush because we have range advantage on a paired board, he will call thinking on 1 level, "I have a flush".

***getting 2p to fold on a flush board is not the same as getting a flush to fold on a paired board
Good spot to bluff for stacks or FPS? Quote

      
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