Folded to decent rec player OTB. He said he cashed 12th in a 150 person tourney $580 buy in this morning at foxwoods. Knows three people at the table. Seems fairly competent. He starts hand with around 500. Makes it 20. I've 3 bet him from the blinds 3 out of 5 times since he sat down and he's called every time so far, and showed down J9s in that spot after I 4xed his open. Hero makes it 85 with QJs given dynamic. Rec player deliberates and calls. My read was that this was serious deliberation.

Flop (168) 334 rainbow. I check. He knows I have been c bet bluffing and perceives I will bet with all my air and will look me up with any pair, so I opt to check/evaluate. And unless I have a good read he's strong, my plan is to check call donk any low card, or ace or king turn, I think I will get much more credit from this then by just barreling. He checks back pretty quickly. I think his quick check back often eliminates the top of his range, and weights him towards smaller/medium pairs.

Turn (168) Qs, putting a spade flush draw out there. Hero donks 125 for value against his perceived range of medium pairs. He thinks for about 30 seconds and makes it 250. He has a little over 200 behind.

Hero thinks for a bit and thinks that this min raise is either nutted or a bluff trying to fold out hero's air. And I think sometimes he will just flat with a pair of queens+. Combing this with physical reads I opted to call planning on check calling a non spade river.

River (568) 10h. Still go with plan?

Why are you 3-betting marginal hands against a guy with no fold button OOP?

As played c/c turn and c/c most rivers.

Hand doesn't make much sense. So he's opening hands like J9s, which means QJs is doing great against his range, but then you 3bet, making him fold hands like J9s. What's even worst is that because of the dynamic he will probably look you up with hands that he MIGHT have folded to a first time 3bet that have QJs dominated such as KQo or AJo. Also, not sure I've ever seen a 250 minraise bluff before.

When you bet the turn and the Villain calls the pot will be 418 with 450 or so behind. You're threatening his entire stack with your bet, since he has to fear a river bet. Are you fairly certain he's ready to play for stacks, with a bluff-catcher like 88 or 99? If he does have a bluff-catcher do you think he passively calls with it?

If you're only ahead of bluff-catchers, I don't think I'd make a large turn bet. I'd probably not bet the turn at all.

I don't think he has many flush draws in his range.

Birdsallsa: he was calling 3 bets OOP with J9s, so my QJs is doing great against his 3 bet call range and wanted to bloat the pot preflop.

Smmcoy: if my pair of queens puts me ahead of his bluff catchers, which is what I think he has a lot of the time after he quickly check backs, why shouldn't I go for value on the turn? And yeah I think against me if he has 99 in that spot and check backs flop, he's doing so to pick at least one street of a bluff off, and maybe two given bet sizing and board texture.

Really? Against range of half to the total hand combinations in the deck, you're just a 52/48 favorite. Given you're oop, I wouldn't call the situation "great" at all since it is unlikely he's raising and calling a 3 bet that wide.

A range that includes J9 also includes AA.

J9s is at the bottom of a top 18% range. Against the top 18% of hands QJs has 41% equity.

QJs flops very well occasionally. On the median flop it has about 35% equity.

AJs is the weakest hand that has at least 50% equity on 50% of flops against a top 18% range.

+1

Check the turn, bomb the river like you missed

If having 41% equity oop in a bloated pot pf is "doing great" to you, then we'll have to agree to disagree.

No, not a good spot to bluff catch, he's not min-raising the turn to shove river with anything other than AQ, QQ-AA, 33, 44, 34s. The flop check was designed to extract. Don't let it.