UTG - straddle to $10
Only button calls 10
Hero calls 5 more from BB.
I think with getting 5-1 immediate odds, it is ok to call here pre - but I don't think a fold is horrible either, just slightly tighter.
Flop 923 R
Hero leads for 15
Button calls
Turn - 5
Hero bets 30
Button calls
River Q - Hero bets 60
OTF - my thinking it I have the best hand most of the time and want to bet for value and to protect my equity. When V calls I can put him on a range of 96-A9 and some random pairs and draws. He is pretty straightforward and passive and I have barreled him off flops and turns before.
OTT - The turn doesn't really change much so I see betting as better than checking. Check calling just seems worse than betting. Of course I am still not getting value from much worse either, so I am not sure of the best course of action. Maybe just folding pre would have made this easier?
ORR - I don't think V will fold K9 or A9 at this point, but maybe all worse hands. Is this still a decent card to barell or a spew? I think if an overcard came on the turn this would have been easier.
This was by no means a big pot, but it stands out to me as a spot where I didn't know the best line once I continued post flop.
Don't know your cards and don't know reads, but it sounds to me like you had a decent hand, and this isn't a spot where I'm at all inclined to turn SDV into a bluff. It's fine to have a range of hand that you x/f just hoping to win at showdown.
I also think this is a pretty meh board to barrel in general. As a general population read, I think the queen is just enough to think about folding, but ultimately just facing a single 1/2 PSB bet with a chance to close the hand out, I think they'll just click call. And on this board specifically, the flop's dry enough that they might slowplay a nutty hand, and the Queen doesn't really hit our bluffs, which is a lot of Ax and 54/65 type stuff, and we woulda raised AQ preflop.
ORR - I don't think V will fold K9 or A9 at this point, but maybe all worse hands. Is this still a decent card to barell or a spew? I think if an overcard came on the turn this would have been easier.
Here's your answer. If he's not folding K9 or A9 on the river, literally the only better hand you have a chance at bluffing away is J9. You also have almost no chance of getting called by a small pocket pair if he's willing to throw a bad 9 away. Targeting J9 specifically for a bluff on the river is not a good idea.
edit: I don't know, I don't think he calls turn with much worse. I probably x/eval river even though it's super exploitable. I think your line starts out fine as you're ahead of about half or a little more than half of his range, but once he calls turn I don't think this anymore.
Last edited by Stupidbanana; 12-19-2015 at 07:50 PM.
I think ~1/2 pot flop + ~1/2 turn pot value bets are fine. You can get called by 98, 97s, 96s, pocket pairs 44, 66-88, paired Ax like A2 and A3, which both turned wheel draws, the flopped draw A5, which turned a pair, the 45 OESD and 65 gut shot that also turned pairs. It's a bit thin on the turn but I think it's +EV.
I don't completely hate the idea of bluffing. But there's something incongruous with the hand if villain gets to the river after calling our flop and turn "value bets" with a range against which we want to bluff with much frequency. Again, it's not a terrible idea, but it just doesn't target enough better hands, and those better hands don't fold often enough.
You can bet 5-10 on the river for value or just c/f.
I would also call pre unless villain is prone to squeezing limpers. I'm loose and comfortable with "garbage" OOP though so maybe others disagree.
Betting the flop and turn for value just to turn the hand into a bluff on a nearly brick river doesn't make sense. We don't get value from worse and V will have very few bluffs when checked to so x/f seems easy.
A $5 value bet is interesting, but it's probably almost the same as x/f and we'll get bluff raised more often than if we just check and we'll feel stupid.
I'd probably check the turn for pot control unless V is very stationy, and b/f all rivers if the turn checks through.
