Im not going to argue with you anymore. You have your way of playing and making money, I have mine. We both play the same game, for the same stakes and (I am assuming here), we both make money in this game. So I guess there is more than 1 way of playing poker.

Yes, I meant 1/6 of the effective stack and in this case it's villains.

Your thoughts of me misunderstanding SPR are totally unfounded. 98%+ of the time I'm getting it in, but sometimes using ones reads and thinking about the player came increase ones positive expectation even more.

With regards to your second paragraph, it's a snap call and much easier to commit.

All I am doing is trying to get to the bottom of what you're saying when you claim that math isn't important in a spot that has no read to do anything but to follow math.

I think you need to either put aside your work to make time for a well though out and intelligent reply or just get on with your work.

Your reply is just LOL

+1

LOL how. Feel free to offer your thoughts rather than trolling.

Don't want to get in a pissing match but SeaULater is taking care of that for me

PolProf gets right to the matter here. Your read has to be so pure, so pristine, so right such a huge percentage of the time to correctly fold AA here with an SPR of 2.7.

This player is not described as the biggest nit ever and obviously isn't as she would insta fold JJ and QQ here pre. Being that she called, leading out with a set is a very unusual line that has to be highly discounted as well. So she has to call with JJ or QQ and ALSO lead out flopped set. This has to be highly discounted! take those 6 combos to 2(probably only 1).

If she calls with QQ JJ to set mine why would she not call with TT 99 or 88 to set mine(18 combos- highly discounted also)? They are exactly the same with regards to chasing the AA KK she puts you on. You can't say she's a super nit and then have her call with JJ QQ but never call with TT 99 88. It's incongruent. And hey let me donk out my TT and see if he's on AK He's on tilt. (I have seen that plenty of times)

How about call with KK to set mine or get tricky vs a tilter (6 combos highly discounted)? How about AA to trap the tilter(1 combo slightly discounted)? AKs vs tilter and flops big draw- sure. 1 combo discounted.

So lets do some napkin math. Have no fear, no real math or pokerstove will be used here Bosox!

QQ JJ that call and then donk out 6 combos total discounted to 2.

KK 6 combos- lets discount this too -easily 1-2 combos might end up played like this even by a standard nit.

AA lets leave it at 1/3 combo

88-TT and donk- um out of 18 combos lets leave at least 1(I bet it's more)

AKhh 1/3 combo

pure bluff has to be 5% could be 10% so 1/3 combo easy.

This is the most nitty range I could imagine and you are still a solid favorite. Sorry my pokerstove isn't working but I can see you are favorite even without it( see don't need it ).

You can see here why it really can't be correct to fold unless someone gives you the "left eye twitch he always has when he has the nuts and then donks out" look. Nowhere in his post does OP state he has a lol live read like that and he says he is perceived to be tilting.

I personally check to tilting guy all day long with the nuts. This hand does not need flop donk bet to get all in by river, just a standard value bets 3/4 pot turn and 3/4 pot river ought to do it. Work is already all done for villain. Why donk flop??

In all favourable SPR situations I agree, of course it's +ev in the long term

If this exact situation came up again with the same player, same cards,same stacks, same action I would say its -ev to put any more chips in the pot. ;-)

I don't think this scenario minus the donk bet is that unusual.

I disagree with your changing the variables comment. Many of the variables can be changed and it have little effect. For example if the villain started the hand with 480 and hero with 570 would that make much difference ? No yet we changed two variables.

Your point about this exact scenario not happening again is precisely the reason we use tools like SPR. Even though the scenario will never be exactly the same we can manipulate the pot to make our post flop decisions easier with a hand like AA.

Think of it this way.

If villain checked the flop and we bet $100 and villain calls what's our play on the turn?

The pot would now be $340 with villain having 280 left. If the turn is a blank and villain donk shoves we are getting over 2-1 on our call. Did we bet the flop to fold the turn?

Yes the villain made the donk bet but I just don't see how you can put her on a set enough of the time to make folding profitable. Even if you could somehow narrow villains range down to QQ and JJ a large percentage if the time I bet it's only marginally profitable to fold here.

Ain'tNoLimit suggested shoving and he's one of the most respected posters on this forum. I have to agree with him.

Your big mistake was showing that hero fold. Never, ever do that! Muck the aces without comment. If anyone asks, just say: "Hand's over, it doesn't matter". The vill likewise made a huge mistake by showing you that your hero fold was correct. You don't ever want to confirm another player's read on you. You never want to build up the opponent's confidence by proving them right.

In the first place, you do not ever want the opposition to know you can make a big hero fold, as that just invites them to take shots at you. Secondly, you don't want to clue in the vill that you can read him that accurately. The vill is certain to change whatever tell, habit, playing style that makes your reads that accurate. That will just deny you further opportunities to read this player.

"I didn't have a live soul read..." I don't discount the possibility of "gut instinct", as I've used it myself. Recently, to hero call an all-in river bet on a scary board with pocket aces. I just knew he didn't have what he was repping, and he showed AK for TPTK. However, I'd been playing with him for the previous five hours, was studying his play, and may have picked up on some tell subconsciously.

However, I would question why you did what you did here. You say you were tilted from a beat recently. That makes this look like an extreme case of running nut scared, playing on scared money, or beat fear. Showing those pocket aces looks too much like a play for pity. "Poor, poor pitiful me: can't even win with aces" -- that's a very bad attitude. Doesn't seem you were in any condition to play. If you can't manage tilt, your only other recourse is to get up and leave. Come back later when you've gotten over it.

Given the description of the preflop action, the vill, the flop, I would find it very difficult to get away from pocket aces in this situation.

Fold is awful. V wouldnt donk with QQ.

Wow he had QQ, nh, he donk led with the nuts. Dw about it - you can always bink an ace or a straight if ur behind.