Quote:
Originally Posted by Phulhouze
Wow, really? I' almost never folding AA heads up, especially after a monstrous pf 3bet. I guess you're putting him on QQ or JJ? Keep in mind, there re 6 combos of KK and only 3 combos of QQ and 3 combos of JJ...so even if you range him only on JJ+ it's almost a coin flip. I would think anyone who calls your pf 3bet is a moron, as I'd probably fold KK in his spot...you screamed aces, and did not give him odds to setmine. Since you've successfully prevented him from setmining for +EV, you are now supposed to call off your stack in most cases.
Since he's made a horrendous call preflop, I don't think he even gets credit for JJ+. I would say he's either a decent player who folds eveything but QQ+ or KK+ here, or else he's the type who would call with TT, AK, and even AQ.
If you give him QQ+, you're ahead 60%, behind 30%, tied 10%.
If you give him TT+, AQ+, you're ahead like 75% of the time, especially because the unpaired hands have so many more combos.
My thought process here is this:
Hero has shown down AKs/KK+ so far as 3bettor preflop. I also had everyone at the table covered and am playing pretty solid. I don't include KK in UTGs range very often because I think KK stacks off preflop. When she raise/calls after thinking for 30 seconds I put her on JJ/QQ/AKs. I'm thinking she believes I have KK or AA and made an incorrect setmining play because she can't find the fold button with QQ/JJ and plans to fold to an A or K flop. Now she hasn't gotten out of line except vs an agro-fish-donk. When she donks $100 into the flush/straight draw board I think her plan is bet/call and I put her exactly on QQ. She doesn't want to give me a free card in case i have AKs and thinks I will stack off right then and there with KK/AA. So based on her image of my entire possible range (AKs/KK/AA), I don't think she checks with a set