So villain is pretty standard 2/3 player..not great but pretty decent. Probably raises 24% hands or so with a fairly narrow UTG raising range. Hero's image is pretty TAG at the table and also slightly tilted after getting 1 outered vs JJ with KK. Effective stack sizes are 150 BBs. Is my fold with pocket Aces here good? (Action is 9 handed)

UTG (450.00)
UTG+1
UTG+2
UTG+3
MP
CO (600.00)
BTN
SB
BB

UTG raises to $18. Folds to CO. CO reraises to $70. 3 folds. UTG tanks for a while and calls $52.
Flop comes QhJh3d.
UTG donks $100. Hero folds.

Ahhhhh total misread. It's probably safe to fold here, I probably put v on like 1010+ pf here, but with Said bet he probably hit trips, only $70 invested, save your money.

I think OP is CO.

Do you have the A ?

Wow, really? I' almost never folding AA heads up, especially after a monstrous pf 3bet. I guess you're putting him on QQ or JJ? Keep in mind, there re 6 combos of KK and only 3 combos of QQ and 3 combos of JJ...so even if you range him only on JJ+ it's almost a coin flip. I would think anyone who calls your pf 3bet is a moron, as I'd probably fold KK in his spot...you screamed aces, and did not give him odds to setmine. Since you've successfully prevented him from setmining for +EV, you are now supposed to call off your stack in most cases.

Since he's made a horrendous call preflop, I don't think he even gets credit for JJ+. I would say he's either a decent player who folds eveything but QQ+ or KK+ here, or else he's the type who would call with TT, AK, and even AQ.

If you give him QQ+, you're ahead 60%, behind 30%, tied 10%.

If you give him TT+, AQ+, you're ahead like 75% of the time, especially because the unpaired hands have so many more combos.

no i have black aces. also sorry for confusion...villain is UTG Hero is CO. Thanks!

You would need a very strong read on villain to fold. This looks more like AQ or AKhh. Would he donk a set here?

Donking a set is not out of the question given the obvious flush and broadway draws, but even if we put 0 bluffs in his range and give him AA, KK, QQ, AhKh, and half his AQs (8 combos), we're still way ahead of his range. We can't base our play only on worst case scenarios.

He could very easily donk bet AKhh, AQ, KK here.

Most (not all) sets are going to just check to you here and look to c/r or c/c.
This feels like a blocker type bet with a single pair.

My thought process here is this:
Hero has shown down AKs/KK+ so far as 3bettor preflop. I also had everyone at the table covered and am playing pretty solid. I don't include KK in UTGs range very often because I think KK stacks off preflop. When she raise/calls after thinking for 30 seconds I put her on JJ/QQ/AKs. I'm thinking she believes I have KK or AA and made an incorrect setmining play because she can't find the fold button with QQ/JJ and plans to fold to an A or K flop. Now she hasn't gotten out of line except vs an agro-fish-donk. When she donks $100 into the flush/straight draw board I think her plan is bet/call and I put her exactly on QQ. She doesn't want to give me a free card in case i have AKs and thinks I will stack off right then and there with KK/AA. So based on her image of my entire possible range (AKs/KK/AA), I don't think she checks with a set

I also exclude AA from her range because I think she gets it in preflop, esp. considering the fact that my large anti-setmine 3bet makes me look like im trying to get it in pre...against a solid player I could include KK in the flatting range but I think this particular player is stacking off KK pre. So im basically left with QQ/JJ/AKs preflop and the way she pushed 100 chips out there screamed the nuts in much the same way my 3bet preflop screamed it, meaning shes licking her chops hoping I get it in now

lolwut

Why would he go against the norm by donking instead of CR'ing with a hand > AA?

this is god awful

Once you 3 bet that big, given the effective stacks and then villain calls, your automatic plan must always be to get it in on any flop regardless.

Horrific fold. Smaller pre as a default, but good sizing considering you got a call somehow.

Jam flop and its not close. You need a severe lol live read to dump this one.

Lol yeah at least call, i dont agree with shoving though. Your range is well defined with your pf reraise. I think if you call it shuts down AQ pretty fast on the turn. If she bets the turn i think yiu can safely make a fold. Whoever said this looks like AQ/AKs i completely agree. But then if its a set donk you can fold turn. I really doubt AQ/AKs bet turn. AQ would have to at least think here on the turn hopefully making your decision easier.

Did i misread the stack sizes? I read 120 bb effective. What do you expect to get it in with that you beat? I think even AQ can find a fold here often. If you say she shoves KK pre why would she call off AQ post? Seems like you contradicr yourself a little here.

Call. You should keep his bluffs in, so don't raise.

Folding is not good here. It's really hard to hit a set. As another post says, he has just as many sets as KK. Throw in AQ and bluffs and you shouldn't be folding.

Tough spot. It really looks like a set but aks is also possible. Remember that even if u stack off here every time against a set she will not win long term cause she didn't have odds to set mine. While there are as many combos of kk as both jj and qq combined, I expect kk to 4bet pre. Also wouldn't kk fear qq,jj, and aa after the flop????? I agree that many villains would read u for kk or aa pre but they still can't fold their qq or jj

I still think this is a fold though

Call, and re-evaluate turn.

this.

Also, most llsnl donks check the flop with JJ or QQ in this spot.

AHA! We found it.

there's no way you can fold if you put AQ in villain's range.