Hi all,

2/5. Hero limps AhAs UTG at relatively active table. V/UTG+1 (pro) limps behind, two other callers. V has hero covered. $850 effective.

Flop ($20): Qh-5h-2s. Hero bets $20, V calls. Everyone else folds.

Turn ($55): Jh. Hero checks. V bets $40. Hero calls. Given flop action, putting V on 2p holding like QJ, maybe a flush. Don’t think I’m good here.

River ($135): 7d. Hero checks. V bets $80. Hero c/r $375. Hero once did this with the nut flush blocker a couple months ago against someone else (for much smaller sizing) and V saw this hand. Not sure if he remembers it though. I have seen V rep top boat with top pair before for stacks and get called by middle boat. He’s capable himself.

Thanks,
DT

Given the price you're getting in a relatively small spot, I see absolutely no reason to turn AA into a bluff here. You have a good enough hand to potentially call down this sizing given the line you took. Your l/rr plan didn't work, but your hand is now underrepped.

If you truly believe his range is as strong as you claim it is, then just fold. It's a limped pot, you have almost no money invested, and now you want to run a big blocker bluff against a mostly uncapped range that you believe to be made up of 2p/flushes? I just don't see any need for it, and I think it's lighting money on fire to try to fold out that type of range. Raise pre, call river.

I wouldn't count on ever getting a villain to fold a flush here just because it's a non-nut flush, this isn't PLO. As branch said, this is a pretty easy call unless you think he has no busted draws and no made hands worse than two pair, which requires a strong read IMO.

EDIT

Also I don't like the lrr plan at these stack depths unless the table is very active and some of those guys are non-believers rather than regs with a fold button. What is your lrr range? Because if it's only KK/AA I suggest being very sparing with the lrr trick.

I'm thinking of an otherwise pretty decent semi-reg who does this and I think his range is pretty much AA only so I've snap folded after iso-ing his limps. Bear in mind at least one of those hands I would have overcalled a normal raise but folded to the 3.5x 3bet. So he kind of plays himself with that trick against people who are half awake.

The stack depths you state are such that I think we're generally better off raising normally. If it's $100 deep or something, whatever, you can probably limp-ship and get calls.

TBH, I don't think 2P fires on this river after your call on the turn. If you decide to bluff this, the turn would have been the place to do it to threaten a big bet on the river.

As played, it could work. I generally want my bluffs to be more in the "should" category.

It’s gutsy!

Now you have to convince V that you would have checked the nuts twice - once on turn and again on river.

Had you bet the turn, you could rep 55 and 22 or a flush. I’m concerned now that V will think your line is FOS. A turn lead reps real strength and even with top two, V might just call after H has led twice. He would raise a flush, but that would be better for you since you’d know exactly where you are.

That said, this could work if V is capable of folding QJ, which I think is the most likely scenario.

No V is ever folding a flush. V may fold QJ, but it isn't 100% certain that V will bet that on the river. So I don't see the reason for raising the river.

Personally, I would rather just call the $80 and see if aces are good.

If it’s a value c/r I love it! If it’s a bluff it’s horrible. No reason to bluff with that much equity. If you much bluff here, do it w/ AhKx or something like that.

If you are going to "bluff" here, go a bit smaller. I know it's 3x plus the pot, but the big size looks like a bluff to me. If I had the nut flush, I'd go smaller hoping for a call. He's rarely folding a flush, anyway.

What would you have limped in with? AhTh? Why would the nut flush check/call the turn? Why on earth would the nut flush check the river? I just don't think your story is valid.

I just call the river, personally. I think your "bluff" should have come on the turn.

(And I hate the limp pre.)

What about for meta game purposes? Bluff now to get paid later on when I have it?

So, you plan to show the bluff? Are they really paying that much attention? Are they going to apply it later and "adjust"? I think that rarely happens, but it might work. Of course, you can't bluff again until you get paid with the goods

I still don't think the story if very believable, and if he folds, he's probably folding worse. You might get two pair to fold.

The whole table saw it; there were many regs present. I am hoping they noticed.

Yeah he called within like 10 seconds with QJ. Lol.

Seems like an pointless overplay compared to ckc your showdown value. Reserve this line for the nf and shove if you’re doing it w AAh too.

You got almost insta called by the bottom of his value range. Usually a sign of a bad bluff

Just raise pre.
I feel like I see a lot of your posts that involve this kind of passive play with big hands.
You’re losing a ton of value by limping AA anywhere on the table pre.
If you’re afraid to lead with AA cuz you don’t lead enough pre you need to learn to lead more hands pre.

AP, your river bluff isn’t worth the risk for the price you’re setting compared to the showdown value you have with your strong hand that you played passively.

You’re risking $375 to potentially win $215.
I think you’re getting called by better over half the time here.
By simple math that is definitively -EV.