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Is this a good c/r bluff candidate? Is this a good c/r bluff candidate?

11-04-2018 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay S
From the OP, it looks like two of the three opponents are unknown short stacks? If so, we're barreling them off of pretty much nothing; the cbet only looks like not a total trainwreck because they both folded.
They're sticking it in with 88-44, 22 on the flop?
Is this a good c/r bluff candidate? Quote
11-04-2018 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuma
HP said we can pickup equity OTT with half the deck. The only good turns for barreling are the 3 offsuit jacks. An ace might be cbet but it's not a spot we love.
Good turn cards to barrel =

any K, Q, A
any club
any J or 8
Is this a good c/r bluff candidate? Quote
11-04-2018 , 05:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ImAllInNow
You're mistaking raw equity for realizable equity. We have the ability to get better hands to fold on the flop and can pick up a lot of good cards on the turn that allow us to get more hands to fold.

And our hand is really far from air here. 18% equity 4 ways is great given how much we gain from fold equity.
Yah our realizable equity is even lower. I'd expect a flop c-bet to get through here less than 10% of the time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HomelessPizza
@BUZZ - I think you are missing the point of barreling. When we are called OTR, we are almost certainly behind, but it's our potential fold equity from potential overcards and V's weak calling range that make this profitable. Eg is V really calling down with hands like JT facing a triple barrel? Doubtful.
Wow no kidding when we're called on the river with A-hi we're probably beat.

This entire hand is RIO city. There's three separate OESD's out there, a flush draw and a variety of over + gutter hands out there that are going to stick around. You are way overestimating FE and your ability to barrel people off on further streets neglecting the fact that the cards you want to barrel are improving pretty much every continuing range aside from the under pairs that call flop like 88/77.

And to top it off we have 100 BB's so good luck getting people to fold.
Is this a good c/r bluff candidate? Quote
11-04-2018 , 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Yah our realizable equity is even lower. I'd expect a flop c-bet to get through here less than 10% of the time.
I feel like we're talking past each other and will have to agree to disagree.
Is this a good c/r bluff candidate? Quote
11-04-2018 , 05:31 PM
Agree with johnny.

Reminder to all that this is live 1/3 NL not 5/10 NL. We don't need to play fancy and run multi-street bluffs to win money at this game. Well timed bluffs will surely add to your win rate but we don't need to go fighting for every pot. Check fold flop and it's not even close IMO.
Is this a good c/r bluff candidate? Quote
11-04-2018 , 05:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Yah our realizable equity is even lower. I'd expect a flop c-bet to get through here less than 10% of the time.



Wow no kidding when we're called on the river with A-hi we're probably beat.

This entire hand is RIO city. There's three separate OESD's out there, a flush draw and a variety of over + gutter hands out there that are going to stick around. You are way overestimating FE and your ability to barrel people off on further streets neglecting the fact that the cards you want to barrel are improving pretty much every continuing range aside from the under pairs that call flop like 88/77.

And to top it off we have 100 BB's so good luck getting people to fold.
Sorry...obviously meant when we are Called OTF, not OTR. Why would I be talking about barreling cards OTR?

You are giving a V who called next to act way to many hands. His range is much narrower. He is very unlikely to be calling NTA with overs+gutter

Last edited by HomelessPizza; 11-04-2018 at 05:50 PM.
Is this a good c/r bluff candidate? Quote
11-04-2018 , 10:09 PM
great discussion here, im in the x/f camp here.

im only betting here if i plan to strongly rep big pairs with barrelling, but thats villain dependent.
Is this a good c/r bluff candidate? Quote
11-05-2018 , 03:44 AM
Cbetting seems pretty bad this multiway. Yea we do pick up equity in a lot of turn cards, but that’s because this board smashes the range of so many hands our opponents flatted. The cards that give us equity, or at least appear to do so, actually improve a lot of the hands that call a flop cbet. We don’t have a strong hand, we don’t have a strong draw, we are four ways, there doesn’t seem much to discuss unless you have soul reads on the table and can own them on future streets.

River is pretty villain dependent. Theoretically I would assume this is a great bluff raise candidate blocking both but straights and nut flushes.

What do you make of villain’s turn check? Would you expect him to bluff his flush draws when checked to on the turn?
Is this a good c/r bluff candidate? Quote
11-05-2018 , 04:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Badreg2017
Cbetting seems pretty bad this multiway. Yea we do pick up equity in a lot of turn cards, but that’s because this board smashes the range of so many hands our opponents flatted. The cards that give us equity, or at least appear to do so, actually improve a lot of the hands that call a flop cbet. We don’t have a strong hand, we don’t have a strong draw, we are four ways, there doesn’t seem much to discuss unless you have soul reads on the table and can own them on future streets.

River is pretty villain dependent. Theoretically I would assume this is a great bluff raise candidate blocking both but straights and nut flushes.

What do you make of villain’s turn check? Would you expect him to bluff his flush draws when checked to on the turn?
No, most regs at 1/3 in my room would probably not bet ott with their draws.
Is this a good c/r bluff candidate? Quote
11-05-2018 , 08:50 AM
huh? clubs get there and V makes a super valuey bet and you want to rep the nut flush after you checked the river to him?

this is just lighting money on fire
Is this a good c/r bluff candidate? Quote
11-05-2018 , 09:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ralphykid67
Agree with johnny.

Reminder to all that this is live 1/3 NL not 5/10 NL. We don't need to play fancy and run multi-street bluffs to win money at this game. Well timed bluffs will surely add to your win rate but we don't need to go fighting for every pot. Check fold flop and it's not even close IMO.
Its not close at all, agree.

The games are still good though, when several 2+2ers is argueing a C-bet here 4 ways on 9-10-x board with A high is good.

Ive said it numerous times that one of the biggest leaks these days is over C-betting, and if you are C-betting A high no draw ( and no: ****ty backdoor equity doesent justify it) you are C-betting way too much.
Is this a good c/r bluff candidate? Quote
11-05-2018 , 12:49 PM
We're sitting at the worst seat at this table (everyone is short except for one guy who is on our left). I seat change at first chance.

I have zero clue what to do with AQo in EP. I now think limping it might be best and evaluating although with a lotta loose shortstackers certainly good reason to raise, although I hate our preflop result (which is also standard).

Can't stand our cbet. We're 4ways and this board has likely smacked multiple people. The only point to cbet here is to take the pot down and I see that happening almost never. Trivial check/fold for me.

I also give up on the turn.

One of the worst cards in the deck on the river as it completes almost every draw. Would we really check/raise this? Like most, his river bet is probably fairly polarized (he's often checking back most pair hands on this runout), so he's either got air or ~nuttish hands, and there's just not a whole heckuva lotta air he can have now (especially given his flop call with 2 others behind him). We're hoping he has KQ (that he called on the flop)? I just check/fold.

ETA: FWIW, since mostly pairs will just take their showdown value after we check the turn and river, *if* we think he has air then we should just be calling (as a check/raise really only targets AK).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 11-05-2018 at 12:57 PM.
Is this a good c/r bluff candidate? Quote
11-05-2018 , 12:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay S
From the OP, it looks like two of the three opponents are unknown short stacks? If so, we're barreling them off of pretty much nothing; the cbet only looks like not a total trainwreck because they both folded.
I'm not even in love with attempting to multi-barrel big stacks here, but given that a couple of the stacks are likely short, a huge +1 to this.

Ginthecheck/foldflop(notclose)campG
Is this a good c/r bluff candidate? Quote
11-05-2018 , 04:04 PM
No. Xf flop.
Is this a good c/r bluff candidate? Quote

      
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