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Good bluff spot or spew? Good bluff spot or spew?

04-13-2016 , 07:04 AM
It is common advice to bluff less and value bet more especially in low limit games. However, sometimes spots to bluff become so obvious that I cant help myself despite the fact it may be high variance, may ruin my image, make me look stupid, etc.

Here is a recent example:

Ceasers 1/2 - 6 handed

H ($500) covers V on BTN straddles to $5. H has not shown any bluffs to this point and has overall been TAG.

V opens to $17
H calls on BTN with Qd7d.

Flop 10109hh

V checks
H bets 20
V calls

Turn Ac
V check calls 60

River 7d

H jams for 180 effective

OK - so the first thing you might say is why am I not folding Q7 and this is a good question and the normal play would be to fold. However, my thought process while probably wrong, is that the V in this hand has a very defined, tight opening range. Therefore, I know certain flops will not hit his range but they can hit mine and I think bc I have position I can rep certain hands he does not have. I also know he is not a station or super sticky. In this hand, I chose to rep a 10 which I think he almost never has. The only hands he could have played this way is AA, 99 and 1010. He could also have Ahxh or something like JJ-KK (maybe but would he fold on turn?) So basically, if I decide to play in this way my hand is irrevelant.

On the other hand, taking lines like this can be risky and really sting our image and bankroll when called. Sometimes they work and sometimes they do not. How often they work I don't know. I feel like its about 50/50. A triple barrel bluff is something I do very rarely. Maybe only a few times a year and if they are only successful half the time I am loosing money because when my river shove is called that costs me more than when they fold river and I win less money. So is this -EV in the long run?

Still I can't help myself sometimes and I cant help but think of what Ed Miller says that most people don't bluff enough, although I think that is just some GTO stuff which is BS because in games with a lot of randoms who come and go like in Vegas this sort of balancing our range stuff is pretty irrelevant and even if they are regs they may not remember these things in a 1/2 game. Regs in 2/5 or higher maybe.

This hand also brings to thought the EV of straddling. I usually feel like straddling on the BTN shorthanded is +EV and the only time I will do it, but sometimes I feel compelled to defend with hands I would never call cold. So if this is the case maybe I just shouldn't BTN straddle at all and it also seems to increase variance. When we have a good hand in position obviously we are making more money but other times we are just throwing $5 away so IDK.
Good bluff spot or spew? Quote
04-13-2016 , 07:13 AM
The preflop call is a disaster, i dont really care what FPS excuses you make up to try and defend that sort of call.

An open raise to 17$ in a 1/2 game is pretty big, and you choose to call with garbage like Q7 wich plays insanely bad even in position. I get a sense of both FPS and entitlement tilt here (like you are so good so you can play garbage hands because you will outplay the table regardless).


And yes Ed Miller has some points for sure that alot of people dont bluff enough from a general point of view (and as a consuequence are ridicilously unbalanced with their range in loads of spots)- but that doesent correlate at all to the spot you have volunteerily put yourself in this hand.

Last edited by Gilmour; 04-13-2016 at 07:18 AM.
Good bluff spot or spew? Quote
04-13-2016 , 07:19 AM
Preflop is lighting money on fire.

Post I dont mind taking one stab, though I would probably prefer to wait for the turn on such a board and to see what V does. If he checks the A on the turn, take a stab.

As played give up turn, give up river.
Good bluff spot or spew? Quote
04-13-2016 , 07:53 AM
I would be less likely to try any bluffs like this when I'm straddling. People are more likely to think you're FOS because you're straddling. I wouldn't be opposed to raising limpers and c-betting in good spots but this is a completely different spot with a tougher opponent who has shown some strength.

Not sure how you rep a 10 here. Besides AT and JTs what else do you rep? I guess your opponent could think you were calling really loose PF, but if that's the case a bunch of draws will also be in your range and it will look like you're bluffing with draws.
Good bluff spot or spew? Quote
04-13-2016 , 11:38 AM
Spew, sorry, this just isnt necessary at these levels. Also, if it works 50% of the time its minus ev as you always loose one more bet in the losing pot then you win in the winning pot (HU)
Good bluff spot or spew? Quote
04-13-2016 , 05:27 PM
BTW - I have a creative mind and sometimes I find myself in these spots instead of doing the boring but correct thing.
Good bluff spot or spew? Quote
04-13-2016 , 05:59 PM
I hate the call of the pre flop bet obviously. When he checks flop, it's OK to take a stab at it. Ace on the turn is a pretty bad card for you. All his big aces now get there, and presumably his over pairs would have bet the flop anyway, so if he had KK, QQ or JJ that's afraid of the ace he'd have bet flop. So, I don't like the turn bet. Once he calls turn, betting river is complete spew. His call of the A on the turn means he's not afraid of it, and the 7 changes nothing. The only thing he could play like this and fold is a busted draw like KQ or KJ of hearts, and you beat those with your pair of 7s anyway. Just check back the river and save the last $180 and hope somehow your pair is good.
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04-13-2016 , 06:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gjpure
BTW - I have a creative mind and sometimes I find myself in these spots instead of doing the boring but correct thing.
I believe the previous replies are hinting at the idea that this is not the best of plays if you want to make money. Now if you are bored and money does not matter, please state same up front. That way no one has to state the obvious.

Fps and ego removed; Well played, you know your opponents play better than your opponent knows your play.
Good bluff spot or spew? Quote
04-14-2016 , 03:04 AM
Pre is whatever; we straddled to 5, have pos with q7s and have to call 12 to win 25. If I was to button straddling, I'm not folding this hand now to 3x raise.
Postflop is total spew; you have absolutely nothing, rep extremely narrow and he's got a strong range.
Re underbluffing, you should have a bluffing range you make it to the river with, but you should have at least some equity. If you button straddling, defend it quite liberally and then choose to bluff this hand on this runout, you are not underbluffing; you are randomnly button clicking and weaken your range to a point you are basically guaranteed to lose in the long run.
Or put it that way, you should have very few hands in this spot where you want to 3barrell; most are value, very few bluffs imo. If you are choosing this hand to bluff, you are bluffing way too much. If you just chose this hand randomnly to do it this time, you are basically button clicking.

Sidenote, I think button straddling is the most stupid position to straddle. If we have the best possible position postflop, we want as deep stacks as possible to exploit that positional advantage the most.

Last edited by sauhund; 04-14-2016 at 03:15 AM.
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04-14-2016 , 03:25 AM
You have a read that "he's not a station or super sticky", so when he c/c flop and turn you should give him credit for a hand and shut down OTR.
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04-14-2016 , 04:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gjpure
V in this hand has a very defined, tight opening range. Therefore, I know certain flops will not hit his range but they can hit mine and I think bc I have position I can rep certain hands he does not have.
Ok, so basically you should be able to call 100% of his rasies with any two cards because you can always outplay him on the right flop, right? If thats how you think poker works you're going to lose a lot of money, namely because if he's a tight opener and you put him on JJ+ and Ax+, then he is going to hit way more boards than you think and valuetown the **** out of you. Like literally you're just praying for the dryest of all boards AND hoping that he doesnt have an overpair, AND hoping that your read is right and that he'll only continue with an overpair and maybe Ace high, AND hoping that he doesnt hit on the turn while you try to float him with air every time, AND hoping that on such dry boards that he's going to believe you have some kind of made hand every single time. Good luck with that.

On to the hand, do you typically bet barely half pot with all of your hands? He may have called because your sizing looks fishy. Regardless, when he does call that Ace is actually the worst card for you. He'd cbet any pair, but probably only get stubborn with big aces. This is not a good card for you to barrel as the submissive in this hand. When he calls AGAIN you definitely shouldnt bet the river. This is one of this situations where whatever he didnt give a damn about on the flop or turn probably wont change his mind on the river. If he has AK he'll just call to prove how bad he runs.

All in all the risk is just not worth the reward. Players are this limit are calling far too often to be wanting to make allin river bluffs on a regular basis. Your money is going to come from valuebetting the best hand.
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04-14-2016 , 04:08 PM
Great shove w two 7ds in the deck you can't lose, yada yada... Seriously though was it the 7h?

Anyway - creativity won't help you when you're airballing the Caesars 1-2, but some semblance of equity on the flop will.

AP, pre is whatever, and once you bet flop, your turn bet is actually necessary as his non heart bways, middling pps, 9x trash (and JJ-KK he somehow checked otf) can find folds sometimes.
On 7x riv you now have SDV against hearts/JQ/JK/78, so just ck back.. Is V really ever folding AJ+ that was down to ck-c TT9hh flop, then do the same on the turn, only to fold an innocent-enough riv?
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04-14-2016 , 04:14 PM
After he calls the 60 ott and we river a pair I feel like there is no value in trying to bluff out better. Just take the showdown.

On this draw heavy of a board it is way too easy for vil to simply put us on a busted draw and click a button imo.
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