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Good Bluff Plan or Luckbox at 2/5? Good Bluff Plan or Luckbox at 2/5?

12-01-2019 , 10:48 AM
Hero is a winning player and does not have much history with V. I've seen him on occasional weekends and during tournament circuits. He's a 50's WG and does not appear to get out of line. More on the passive side. Hero has a tight image and garners a lot of respect/fold equity at the table. I can usually open for a lower amount of money and get less callers than most. My particular game is value heavy and I've been trying to look for good spots/players to create bluffs.

Limper in MP and I raise CO to $20 with KJ and $1200 effective. V calls on button, V2 (super loose donk) calls in SB and limper call.

Flop ($80) AQ7
Checks to me and I bet $35. V raises to $100 behind me. Folds to me and I call. I range V on a big A or 2 pair or a set of 7s. Since I have the K and bet small I can represent 'setting my own price' for my draw. Plan is to bluff any turn diamond and obviously gutter to the nuts. I call.

Turn ($280) 6
I check and V bets $150. I check raise to $450. Obviously I picked up more nut outs and he should fold all his Aces and maybe even his 2 pairs here. He thinks and eventually calls.

River ($1180) J
Easy jam for my last $650ish. V checks his hole cards and mucks. He mumbles something and all I pick up is '...tightest guy at the table'. In a later hand he raised me on the river and I folded and he said 'Didn't have the nuts this time did you?'

So I assume he was high up in his range with a set and peeled the river looking to improve. Even on a brick I think he lets it go to my jam. Was this a successful bluff plan?

Marsh
Good Bluff Plan or Luckbox at 2/5? Quote
12-01-2019 , 10:57 AM
Here's the problem with this hand. You said you have a tight image. Villain clearly agrees based on his statement about "tightest guy at the table". Using that image to create fold equity is a great idea. However, you have make a move that's believable based on your image. You cant rep a hand that nobody will believe you have.

You raised preflop. A good player is putting you on a range already. The flop comes AdQd7s. (I hate your cbet but thats not the issue). The issue is that you called the check raise to rep a flush if a diamond hits the turn, but what 2 diamonds can you be holding when you have a very tight image and the Ad and Qd are on the board?

The best hand you can have is KdJd and hardly anyone is going to believe that's what you have based on your image. On the river, villain thinks you have AxKd but if that river diamond doesn't fall hes not folding a set.

So in summary, IMO, this hand is badly played based on your image.
Good Bluff Plan or Luckbox at 2/5? Quote
12-01-2019 , 11:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Here's the problem with this hand. You said you have a tight image. Villain clearly agrees based on his statement about "tightest guy at the table". Using that image to create fold equity is a great idea. However, you have make a move that's believable based on your image. You cant rep a hand that nobody will believe you have.

You raised preflop. A good player is putting you on a range already. The flop comes AdQd7s. (I hate your cbet but thats not the issue). The issue is that you called the check raise to rep a flush if a diamond hits the turn, but what 2 diamonds can you be holding when you have a very tight image and the Ad and Qd are on the board?

The best hand you can have is KdJd and hardly anyone is going to believe that's what you have based on your image. On the river, villain thinks you have AxKd but if that river diamond doesn't fall hes not folding a set.

So in summary, IMO, this hand is badly played based on your image.
Interesting. I was going to add an EDIT that another flaw is a fit/fold player raised me on the flop. I think my small bet could induce some raises to narrow my range, but overall I want to pick spots to fold out medium/low strength hands. V is showing he is probably med/high strength out of the gate.

I'd also say I don't think villain thinks I have AxKd. There's no way I'm piling chips on the turn with 1 pair like that. Even with the backdoor nut draw.

And I do have suited connectors in my open range. So I could have more diamonds in my range if that makes a difference and not just Kd10d. I also think I play my AA/QQ sets this way.

Last edited by MarshMan114; 12-01-2019 at 11:16 AM.
Good Bluff Plan or Luckbox at 2/5? Quote
12-01-2019 , 03:48 PM
There is another reason this is a bad bluff plan, and that is because you are out of position against the guy you're trying to bluff.

Look at the turn action again. Villain raised you on the flop, then you called and checked to him. The problem at this point is that if Villain were scared of you having a flush, enough to fold to you, he'd probably check it back, right? But Villain checking back basically takes the teeth out of your bluff. So on the one hand, your turn check allows Villain to check back the hands you're counting on him to fold; but on the other hand, in this case he bet anyway.

Seems to me like the turn check-raise is probably the worst way to bluff here. If you wanted to bluff, you probably should have just led into him when the diamond hit. Personally, though, I would probably have shut it down long before you got to that point.
Good Bluff Plan or Luckbox at 2/5? Quote
12-01-2019 , 03:59 PM
This might be a hand you want to bluff with HU, but not against 3 other people. In that spot, both are value and bluffing range should be way tighter. So in that spot, your bluff should be hands like KdJd or KdTd.

Since you have a tight image and the other person is raising you, it's likely he's at the top of his range. Personally, I have learned the hard way that bluffs are better when they are not aimed at the top of villain's range.

Last but not least, one big question is. Do you check raise with the flush there? If you do, the check raise is fine. If not, it's a problem.
Good Bluff Plan or Luckbox at 2/5? Quote
12-01-2019 , 04:10 PM
I like it better of you're the caller in position pf and the villain is betting at this board.

I don't like it because you are OOP, and a guy who doesn't get out of line and thinks you're tight probably putting you on AK is still raising you. People don't fold sets especially they put a lot of money into the pot.

I want to add that I think you are thinking about some of the right ideas though. But select a better spot to apply I think.
Good Bluff Plan or Luckbox at 2/5? Quote
12-01-2019 , 08:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarshMan114
Interesting. I was going to add an EDIT that another flaw is a fit/fold player raised me on the flop. I think my small bet could induce some raises to narrow my range, but overall I want to pick spots to fold out medium/low strength hands. V is showing he is probably med/high strength out of the gate.

I'd also say I don't think villain thinks I have AxKd. There's no way I'm piling chips on the turn with 1 pair like that. Even with the backdoor nut draw.

And I do have suited connectors in my open range. So I could have more diamonds in my range if that makes a difference and not just Kd10d. I also think I play my AA/QQ sets this way.
That's great and that's where you will get paid off. When you have a value hand that people don't think you can have....but dont try to bluff repping a hand that they dont think you can have.

What hand do you think that he puts you on with this action and with you jamming $650 on the 4 flush river?
Good Bluff Plan or Luckbox at 2/5? Quote
12-01-2019 , 09:23 PM
Flop bet size is bad. Either $20 (which I would do with a wide range here) or bet around 60-65 to represent TPGK+. Fold to the flop raise! Calling the worst option by some distance IMO. There aren't many scare cards to his value range and still don't expect people to fold TPTK or two pair when the diamond hits. I would only call if he's the type to raise a medium strength hand "for information" because I think your plan to fold out a strong hand on scare cards (only diamonds really) is not a sound plan.

Turn raise is marginal/suspect but not as bad as the flop. Also consider 3-betting the flop to like $350 if you want to make a move here.
Good Bluff Plan or Luckbox at 2/5? Quote
12-01-2019 , 09:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Here's the problem with this hand. You said you have a tight image. Villain clearly agrees based on his statement about "tightest guy at the table". Using that image to create fold equity is a great idea. However, you have make a move that's believable based on your image. You cant rep a hand that nobody will believe you have.

You raised preflop. A good player is putting you on a range already. The flop comes AdQd7s. (I hate your cbet but thats not the issue). The issue is that you called the check raise to rep a flush if a diamond hits the turn, but what 2 diamonds can you be holding when you have a very tight image and the Ad and Qd are on the board?

The best hand you can have is KdJd and hardly anyone is going to believe that's what you have based on your image. On the river, villain thinks you have AxKd but if that river diamond doesn't fall hes not folding a set.

So in summary, IMO, this hand is badly played based on your image.
Good post.

In hold'em it's really ****ing hard to make better than 1 pair. Hand combos and ranges matter more than your "image".
Good Bluff Plan or Luckbox at 2/5? Quote
12-01-2019 , 09:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarshMan114
Interesting. I was going to add an EDIT that another flaw is a fit/fold player raised me on the flop. I think my small bet could induce some raises to narrow my range, but overall I want to pick spots to fold out medium/low strength hands. V is showing he is probably med/high strength out of the gate.

I'd also say I don't think villain thinks I have AxKd. There's no way I'm piling chips on the turn with 1 pair like that. Even with the backdoor nut draw.

And I do have suited connectors in my open range. So I could have more diamonds in my range if that makes a difference and not just Kd10d. I also think I play my AA/QQ sets this way.
You're not playing QQ/AA like this. Maybe you justify it to yourself but a good player will know your range better than your own perceived range and QQ/AA is just super unlikely.
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